Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer embark on home stretch

  2008-10-12 11:47:56
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Welcome back, tennis fans. The first huge tournament since the U.S. Open is finally upon us as the Masters Series Madrid begins on Sunday, and every single one of the Top 30 players in the world (No. 31 Mario Ancic recently pulled out) is in action. With the year-end Masters Cup in Shanghai rapidly approaching, loads of valuable rankings points are at stake. So sit back, relax (or more like fasten your seatbelts!), and enjoy not only an incredible week of tennis, but also an amazing final month of the 2008 season.

   

  Masters Series Madrid

  Where: Madrid, Spain
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 2,270,000 Euros
  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending Champion: David Nalbandian
  
  Draw Analysis: With such a strong field in Madrid no draw is going to be easy, but Roger Federer’s is especially taxing. Federer will be playing for the first time since Switzerland's Davis Cup win over Belgium three weeks ago (he withdrew from last week’s IF Stockholm Open), and he has no time whatsoever to get back in full swing. His road to the semifinals could consist of Radek Stepanek, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and either Juan Martin Del Potro or David Nalbandian.
  
  Needless to say, the whole fourth quarter of the draw is just brutal. Nalbandian and Del Potro would meet in the third round even though such a matchup seems better-suited for a semifinal or even a final right now. Even before that Nalbandian might have to get past Tokyo champion Tomas Berdych!
  
  Rafael Nadal, who has not played since leading Spain to a Davis Cup semifinal win over the defending champion United States, should have an easier time of it in his section even though indoor hard courts are not ideal for his game. The Spaniard could get Ernests Gulbis, who gave him a fight at Wimbledon, in round two, but Gulbis might go out to Nicolas Kiefer in round one. The three other seeds in Nadal's section are David Ferrer, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Richard Gasquet. Nadal fans can gripe all they want that their man would face Novak Djokovic in the semifinals instead of the final, but the option was either Djokovic or Andy Murray. At this point it’s hard to say Djokovic is a more difficult proposition than Murray, who finished runner-up to Federer at the U.S. Open.
  
  Djokovic's portion of the draw is littered with players looking to turn around recent slumps. Seeds Nikolay Davydenko, James Blake, and Ivo Karlovic have done nothing of late, and Djokovic has not exactly been setting the tennis world on fire himself. Marat Safin and indoor-court genius Robin Söderling could take advantage of a vulnerable section.
  
  Murray probably has the easiest journey--on paper--to the semis of them all. Unless Marin Cilic returns from injury with a bang, the Scot should cruise into the quarterfinals, where he could face Andy Roddick, Fernando Gonzalez, or Gael Monfils.
  
  Second-Round Upset Alert: Since all 16 seeds get byes to the second round, no first-round result would really qualify as a significant upset. Keep an eye on Fabio Fognini vs. Gael Monfils, however, because Monfils has been playing a ton of tennis recently (albeit because he keeps winning matches!) and could be fatigued after his run last week in Vienna. Fognini has not been in great form recently, but he should be invigorated by receiving a wild card and he has the talent to take advantage if Monfils is at all hobbled, especially since the Frenchman’s speed is his main weapon.
  
  There are plenty of potential upsets in round two, but one of the most likely outcomes is Söderling over Karlovic. It would hardly be an “upset” on indoor courts, however, as that is where Söderling thrives. The Swede finished runner-up in both Rotterdam and Memphis earlier this year and played Nalbandian in the Stockholm final. Karlovic is reeling from plenty of recent losses and the 6’10’’ Croat will go down to Söderling unless he serves incredibly well.
  
  Other seeds in potential second-round danger include Nadal if he faces Gulbis, Wawrinka if he faces Fish, Davydenko if he faces Safin, Gonzalez if he faces Monfils, and Verdasco if he faces Cilic.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Philipp Kohlschreiber, Robin Söderling, Marat Safin, Andy Roddick, Gael Monfils, Fernando Gonzalez, Andy Murray, David Nalbandian, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Roger Federer
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Nicolas Kiefer, Ernests Gulbis, Ivo Karlovic, James Blake, Fernando Verdasco, Nicolas Almagro, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Monaco
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Rafael Nadal over James Blake and Roger Federer over Andy Murray
  
  Final Prediction: Federer over Nadal
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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