Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Roddick, Tsonga look to continue hot streak

  2008-09-29 09:50:49
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  For a "down" time in the tennis season following the final Grand Slam of the year, last week featured thoroughly entertaining tennis. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won his first ATP title by avenging his Australian Open loss to Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick survived several three-setters to emerge victorious in Beijing. Now the home stretch to the Masters Cup in Shanghai really heats up. Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Djokovic are all resting up for the bigger tournaments coming up, but the AIG Japan Open still feels like it is a notch just below a Masters Series event. The title at the Open de Moselle in France looks like is more up for grabs than any other this entire year. Anyone could win it. The result should be a seven-day stretch that really energizes the players and fans for the final month and half of the season.

   

   

  Open de Moselle

  Where: Metz, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 370,000 Euros
  Top Seed: Ivo Karlovic
  Defending Champion: Tommy Robredo (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: It's hard to imagine a tournament with more potential winners than this one. Why? Because none of the top players are in the field (Karlovic is the highest-ranked player at 14th in the world), but the depth is remarkable. Just consider some of the men who aren't even seeded: Carlos Moya, Marcos Baghdatis, Ernests Gulbis, Janko Tipsarevic, Michael Llodra, and Feliciano Lopez. Yes, it is safe to say the Open de Moselle is completely up for grabs.
  
  Being in the bottom half of the draw, however, appears to be ideal for making a real run this week. No. 2 seed Gilles Simon has been on fire recently, but indoor hard courts are not perfect for his consistent, counter-punching style. Nonetheless, Simon will have a French crowd behind him and has to be considered the favorite to reach the final out of this section.
  
  That's not to say this portion of the draw isn't there for the taking. Fourth-seeded Paul-Henri Mathieu has been slumping, No. 6 seed Andreas Seppi is far from imposing on fast hard courts, and No. 8 Mario Ancic has is just now coming back from yet another injury. In other words, the door could open for an unseeded threat such as Gulbis, Tipsarevic, or even one of two Frenchmen: Arnaud Clement and Marc Gicquel.
  
  The top half could be an even bigger free-for-all, but it also looks a lot tougher. No. 1 seed Ivo Karlovic and No. 5 Dmitry Tursunov are always difficult outs on fast hard courts. So is seventh-seeded Radek Stepanek, who reached an indoor final in San Jose earlier this season. No. 3 seed Nicolas Almagro is much more of a clay-court specialist, but he has the serve to be dangerous on this surface as well.
  
  The talent in the top half does not end there; not even close. Look at the unseeded players who are bidding for the title spot from this section of the draw: Baghdatis, Albert Montanes, Moya, Jose Acasuso, Guillermo Canas, Eduardo Schwank, Victor Hanescu, Ivan Ljubicic, Llodra, Lopez, and Julien Benneteau.
  
  With such a deep and evenly-matched field, fans will not have to wait until the final weekend to witness some inspiring, fiercely-contested tennis. The action should be scintillating right from the very start, and some of the blockbuster first-round showdowns include Karlovic vs. Baghdatis, Llodra vs. Lopez, and Ancic vs. Gulbis.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Eduardo Schwank over Nicolas Almagro. Since Almagro makes his living on the dirt, it's no surprise that he has not done much since reaching the quarterfinals of the French Open. However, the Spaniard is not completely hopeless on hard courts. He has a big serve and he won two matches at the U.S. Open, where he had match points against Gilles Muller to advance to the fourth round. Like Almagro, Schwank is also most comfortable on the slow stuff but capable of doing damage on faster surfaces. The Argentine showed that potential by having match points against Roddick in Washington, D.C. this summer before losing in three sets. Unfortunately for Schwank, he has not won a single match since then. As a result, a Schwank win here would be a significant upset, but it is certainly not out of the question.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Gilles Simon
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Paul-Henri Mathieu, Marcos Baghdatis, Ivan Ljubicic, Marcel Granollers, Guillermo Canas
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Dmitry Tursunov over Roddick Stepanek and Gilles Simon over Mario Ancic
  
  Final Prediction: Simon over Tursunov

   

   

  AIG Japan Open

  Where: Tokyo, Japan
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $869,000
  Top Seed: David Ferrer
  Defending Champion: David Ferrer
  
  Draw Analysis: This is a very peculiar field because it is loaded at the top but the depth is questionable at best. Other than the absence of the Big 3 (Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic), the AIG Japan Open almost looks like a Masters Series event with all of the second-tier players on hand. David Ferrer leads the way as the top seed and he is joined by the likes of Roddick, Fernando Gonzalez, Richard Gasquet, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Robredo, Tsonga, Mikhail Youzhny, and Tomas Berdych. Gael Monfils, who lost to Tsonga in the Bangkok semifinals last week, had been entered but pulled out citing a right shoulder problem.
  
  Other than with Kei Nishikori and Viktor Troicki (who is technically the No. 17 seed now since he picked up a first-round bye when Monfils withdrew), the unseeded talent seems to be lacking. It would not be surprising to see the last 16 feature at least 14 seeds, and the quarterfinals should boast at least seven seeds, if not a perfect eight.
  
  Once the tournament progresses into its' latter stages, seeds will really be beating up on each other in the bottom half of the draw. That section includes Bangkok champion Tsonga, Beijing winner Roddick, No. 3 seed Gonzalez, No. 9 Berdych, and in-form players such as Jurgen Melzer and Troicki. The winner of a potential Roddick-Tsonga quarterfinal showdown would be favored to reach Sunday's title match.
  
  The top half appears considerably less daunting, at least in terms of depth. Fifth-seeded Del Potro, who won four consecutive tournaments this summer and made it to the quarterfinals in New York, is the heavy favorite. The Argentine could face a relatively stern test in Ferrer in the quarterfinals, and perhaps from Gasquet in the semifinals, but other than that the dangers to Del Potro seem to be few and far between. Gasquet's quarter is by far the weakest. None of the seeds (Gasquet, Youzhny, Rainer Schuettler, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) are intimidating, so don't be surprised if Nishikori takes advantage of that and makes it all the way to the semifinals.
  
  Second-Round Upset Alert: Kei Nishikori over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. All 16 of the seeds get byes into the second round, and quite frankly there are no first-round matchups that would constitute big upsets. Then again, neither would Nishikori over Garcia-Lopez, assuming the Japanese star gets past Robert Kendrick in his first match. Garcia-Lopez is No. 60 in the world while Nishikori comes in at No. 84, but at 18 years old Nishikori still has more experience on the big stages. He won the title in Delray Beach as a qualifier earlier this year and more recently reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open by upsetting Ferrer. Nishikori should win this, but Garcia-Lopez is one of those Spaniards who can win on any surface, so it's not like the youngster will just waltz into the third round.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Robredo, Jurgen Melzer, Viktor Troicki, Kei Nishikori, Bjorn Phau, Dudi Sela
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Richard Gasquet, Mikhail Youzhny, Tomas Berdych
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Kei Nishikori and Andy Roddick over Tommy Robredo
  
  Final Prediction: Del Potro over Roddick
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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