Ricky Dimon

• Approach shots: ATP resumes with Djokovic in action

  2008-09-22 10:47:04
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  ATP events took a week-long hiatus to give the Davis Cup center stage, but now the home stretch to the end of the season is beginning. There are two tournaments this week; one back in Beijing, China, site of this summer’s Olympic Games, and the other in Bangkok, Thailand. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, both of whom led their countries to Davis Cup victories over the weekend (Nadal helped put Spain the finals), are going to rest up for the more important events later this fall. Novak Djokovic, however, is making a quick turnaround following Davis Cup to play in Bangkok. It will be his first ATP appearance since riling up the New York crowd at the U.S. Open.
  
  

  China Open

  Where: Beijing, China
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $524,000
  Top Seed: David Ferrer
  Defending Champion: Fernando Gonzalez
  
  Draw Analysis: This tournament is as top-heavy as they come; meaning there is a noticeable drop-off in talent at a certain point. In this case the drop-off comes after the top eight seeds, or maybe the best nine players in the field if you include Juan Carlos Ferrero. The Spaniard, however, has not played a match since Wimbledon due to injury. While there is almost always an upset or two in every event before the quarterfinals, it would not be an absolute shock to see all eight seeds reach the quarters in Beijing.
  
  The top four seeds, of course, have the easiest path because they get opening-round byes. No. 1 seed David Ferrer should have no problem winning his first match against either Nicolas Devilder or Dudi Sela to reach the quarterfinals. Ferrer has been struggling for much of 2008, but he scored a huge come-from-behind victory over Andy Roddick during Spain’s weekend Davis Cup tie against the United States. That should give Ferrer the confidence necessary to do well in Beijing, but he will probably have to face compatriot Tommy Robredo in the quarters. Robredo played sparkling tennis in both singles and doubles at the U.S. Open, where he fell to Djokovic in a thrilling fourth-round match. The winner of Ferrer-Robredo would most likely get Richard Gasquet in the semis. Gasquet is in the same quarter as Rainer Schuettler, who reached the semifinals of Wimbledon out of nowhere to inflate his ranking. Other than that performance Schuettler has hardly been heard from in 2008, so Gasquet should move through this section of the draw with little difficulty.
  
  The other spot in Sunday’s title match is Andy Roddick’s to take. His nearest seed is No. 5 Fernando Verdasco, who has struggled the entire summer. Ferrero would normally be a minor threat but he has been sidelined and would be a longshot to make it by either Verdasco or Bobby Reynolds in the second round. Defending champ and third-seeded Fernando Gonzalez has the inside track on the other semifinal spot in the bottom half, but the Chilean is fresh off a humiliating beat-down at the hands of Roddick in New York. Gonzalez will most likely have to get past another American, Sam Querrey, before even getting another shot at Roddick. Querrey reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open, where he took a set off Nadal, and took a set off Nadal again over the weekend, this time on clay in a hostile Davis Cup environment.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: It’s a draw of only 28 so the top four seeds get byes. Therefore only four seeded players have a chance of bowing out of the first round, and none appear likely to do so. Of the four, however, Verdasco probably faces the toughest test in Reynolds. The American has displayed some potential recently by reaching the third round of Wimbledon and winning a match at the U.S. Open before playing Gonzalez tough in the second round. Verdasco, meanwhile, was enjoying an incredible 2008 campaign until the arrival of the U.S. Open series. Ever since then it’s been a huge struggle for the Spaniard, who looked lifeless in no less than two matches during that span (against Mardy Fish in New Haven and Igor Andreev at the U.S. Open). Reynolds is a steady counter-puncher who can frustrate Verdasco if the No. 5 seed is having another off day. Verdasco should eventually pull this one out, but it will not be easy.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Sam Querrey
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, Juan Carlos Ferrero
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Tommy Robredo over Richard Gasquet and Andy Roddick over Sam Querrey
  
  Final Prediction: Roddick over Robredo
  
  
  

  Thailand Open

  Where: Bangkok, Thailand
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $576,000
  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending Champion: Dmitry Tursunov (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: The Thailand draw is a little more interesting in terms of boasting a lot more unseeded players capable of shaking things up. Julien Benneteau is a rock-solid veteran, Teimuraz Gabashvili enjoyed a nice run in Romania two weeks ago, Thomaz Bellucci and Simone Bolleli have made names for themselves in 2008, Donald Young started coming into his own this summer, Viktor Troicki had a breakout summer, and Fabrice Santoro is always dangerous, even at 35 years old.
  
  The only unseeded threat Djokovic is likely to encounter is Benneteau in the second round. Djokovic, the No. 1 seed, should not have too much trouble winning that match (against either Benneteau or a qualifier) to reach the quarterfinals, but once there he could have the toughest test of anyone in Robin Soderling. The Swede has always been an indoor terror throughout his career and this season he reached back-to-back finals in Rotterdam and Memphis. Third-seeded Tomas Berdych is a potential semifinal opponent for Djokovic. The Czech, however, will have to be in form to scrape by either Bellucci or Bolelli in round two.
  
  Djokovic reaching the final is far from a foregone conclusion, but the bottom half of the draw is way more wide open. Tsonga, Safin, and Monfils all have Grand Slam-winning talent (Safin has already won two, Tsonga reached the final this year in Australia, and Monfils made it to the semifinals of the French a little over three months ago). Those two appear on a collision course for the quarterfinals, as most of the unseeded danger lurks in the last quarter of the field. That’s where Tsonga and Melzer have to contend with Troicki, Santoro, and Young. It would not be surprising to see Troicki go all the way to the semifinals. But Tsonga, who was out from May until the U.S. Open with a knee problem, looked healthy in New York and will be favored to meet to Monfils or Safin in the semis if healthy.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Like in Beijing, the Thailand Open features a draw of just 28 so only four seeded players will see action in the opening round. Soderling will face a qualifier, Jarkko Nieminen is playing Novak Djokovic’s brother, the young and inexperienced Marko, and Marat Safin goes up against unheralded Philipp Petzschner. That leaves Jurgen Melzer, who clashes with Donald Young, as the only seed with a decent chance of failing to reach the second round. While Young is still wildly inconsistent, he showed great potential at times in both Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. (he beat Tommy Haas in L.A.), and he was awesome every now and then in a five-set loss to James Blake at the U.S. Open. Melzer, however, is on top of his game at the moment, posting strong showings at the Open and at the Olympics. This is the Austrian’s match to win, but if his serve betrays him, Young has the talent for an upset.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Gael Monfils, Jurgen Melzer, Viktor Troicki
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, Robin Söderling, Danai Udomchoke
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Jarkko Nieminen and Gael Monfils over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  
  Final Prediction: Djokovic over Monfils

  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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