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2008-09-14 22:02:46
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
Players can say all they want that they were playing for their country during the Olympics last month in Beijing. To some extent that is probably quite true, but in general it was just another example of grueling (mentally and physically) individual competition. This week, however, affords competitors the opportunity to really lay everything on the line for their homelands. It’s the Davis Cup semifinals, in which the United States will visit Spain and Russia will travel to Argentina. The contestants could be tired from a long season, but raucous atmospheres and crazed fans will refuse to let them show any kind of fatigue.
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
United States: Andy Roddick, Sam Querrey, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Spain: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco
Spain would be favored to win this tie even on hard courts. On clay, well, the Americans will simply hope to escape the overseas trip without getting utterly embarrassed. James Blake, who has always struggled immensely on the dirt, got the easy way out by being left off the squad. He was replaced by Sam Querrey, who reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open (lost to Nadal) and surprised everyone by reaching the quarterfinals on the clay of Monte-Carlo. Roddick, meanwhile, has been struggling on all surfaces and he remains nothing short of hopeless on the slow stuff. Ferrer has not exactly been setting the world on fire, but he is going to qualify for the season-end Masters Cup even in a “down” year. Nadal will win both of his singles rubbers (if he even needs to play his second one) in straight sets and it would be surprising if Ferrer drops more than one set in either of his two contests. The Bryans should win the doubles point even though Lopez and Verdasco make for an experienced and talented duo, but overall there will be little drama in Madrid this weekend.
Prediction: Spain 4, United States 1.
Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Russia: Nikolay Davydenko, Igor Andreev, Dmitry Tursunov, Igor Kunitsyn
Argentina: David Nalbandian, Juan Martin Del Potro, Agustin Calleri, Guillermo Canas
There are a lot of question marks surrounding this tie. Davydenko and Nalbandian are the highest-ranked players for Russia and Argentina, respectively, but both are enduring dismal slumps. The match-fixing scandal that has dogged Davydenko all year, however, is finally over. Will that allow the No. 6 player in the world to start playing his best tennis again? Will Nalbandian awake from his doldrums to heat up just in time to defend all of his ranking points from last fall? The answer to the second question is doubtful. Fortunately for the Argentines, Del Potro is on an incredible hot streak and it will be up to him to keep it going his team has hopes of advancing to the Davis Cup final. If Russia hosted this tie, it would be heavily favored. A wild atmosphere in Argentina, however, could turn the tide. Unlike in the U.S.-Spain tie, where three of the rubbers are easy to pick (Nadal’s two singles matches and the Bryan Brothers in doubles), all five rubbers in Argentine appear up for grabs. Don’t be surprised if Del Potro is counted on to win both of singles rubbers. Given Nalbandian’s current form, it is unlikely the veteran can manage anything better than a split of his two efforts. Meanwhile, any Russian doubles team thrown out there should be slightly favored over Calleri and Canas, and the Argentines don’t want to tire out either Nalbandian or Del Potro; certainly not both. Plus Nalbandian and D.P. are not exactly doubles stalwarts anyway. Del Potro has won all kinds of titles for himself recently, so why not be the hero for his country this week? It’s going to happen.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Russia 2.
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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The predictions seem like the outcome, I hope they are. The second one is tougher to predict with Davydenko and Nalbandian having rough go's of it lately. I am cheering for Argentina by a little margin. The U.S.A. has no chance at all on clay. :x
Allez , 9/15/08 3:51 PM
fully agree us has no opportunity here. any player spain has on clay will beat them. bryans are having struggles this year too, so i think maybe it is not a given. probably they take the point but you never know. i don't know about the second one, russia has chances. i hope they win.
elle , 9/15/08 4:05 PM
So winning the U.S. Open and taking over the No. 1 ranking in the world is a "struggle" for the Bryans????
No I actually kind of agree with you, but it's only because of the ridiculous standards the Bryans have set for themselves. But they are back on top of their games and a loss to Verdasco and Lopez would be close to stunning.
Of course it would be a lot less stunning than any singles win by the United States.
RickyDimon , 9/15/08 4:36 PM
again the ugly twins have #1 ranking? i was hoping they are done. winning the us open is good for them sure. not likely to lose to verdasco and lopez, maybe wishful thinking for me because i see chest bumping, and my thought is to beat them both with their own raquets.
nadal plays both usa singles players at the same time, he loses three games at most. querrey plays ok on clay but nadal will kill him. roddick goes home crying lol.
elle , 9/15/08 4:48 PM
Winning the last major of the year is not that much of a struggle. They remind me of Federer's path with expectations, but the truth is the Americans have no realistic chance at all against Spain.
I won't touch the second of Ricky's predictions, because my favorite won't win. LOL.
RocketQueen , 9/15/08 10:54 PM
i hear one bryan brother is injured and not playing the tie? 5 to nil for spain in that case.
elle , 9/16/08 1:33 AM
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I totally agree with you in both ties. The US - Spain match i easy to predict while Argentina vs Russia is a nailbiter. Wouldn't be surprised if the Russians wins this one comfortably, but i still think that the home soil will be the decisive factor.
Maglor , 9/15/08 12:49 PM