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2008-09-09 08:51:30
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The casual tennis fan generally considers the U.S. Open to be the end of every tennis season. The real tennis fan knows better. It’s true that with the U.S. Open’s conclusion there is no huge tournament until the Masters Series Madrid on October 12, but as a whole the ATP Tour stops for nothing. In fact the BCR Open Romania is already underway. Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic are naturally taking well-deserved rests, but some second-tier names are in Romania either looking for rankings points or fine-tuning their clay-court games for upcoming Davis Cup ties.
Where: Bucharest, Romania
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 370,000 Euros
Top Seed: Richard Gasquet
Defending Champion: Gilles Simon
Draw Analysis: With no dominant force in the field, the BCR Romania Open is wide open. The title is there for the taking and a host of contenders have a chance to step up and rise to the occasion. Defending champion and No. 2 seed Gilles Simon is in a bottom half of the draw that appears to be far friendlier than the top. His first-round match against Evgeny Korolev, however, could be his most difficult en route to the final. Should he get past Korolev, who upset Robin Soderling in the first round of the U.S. Open, Simon would meet clay-court specialist Albert Montanes in round two. Simon’s nearest seed, No. 7 Marcel Granollers, is already out of the tournament at the hands of Potito Starace.
Fourth-seeded Paul-Henri Mathieu and No. 8 seed Jose Acasuso will be among those fighting for the other semifinal spot in the bottom section. Romanian hope Victor Hanescu, last year’s runner-up, could play Acasuso in the second round during his quest to make another surprise appearance in the title match.
The top half of the draw is loaded and it certainly did not do No. 1 seed Richard Gasquet any favors. Gasquet has Oscar Hernandez in round one; he should ease through that even though the Spanish veteran enjoys clay immensely. The Frenchman, however, could meet talented Latvian Ernests Gulbis—seeded for the first time in an ATP event at No. 5—in the quarterfinals. Clay-court guru Nicolas Almagro and Carlos Moya appear to be on a collision course for the quarterfinals in the second part of the top half. Almagro, though, first must navigate his way through what might be the most intriguing opening-round showdown. The third-seeded Spaniard is going up against qualifier Somdev Devvarman on Tuesday. Devvarman, out of the University of Virginia by way of India, is the two-time reigning NCAA singles champion and he won his first four events (Challengers and Futures tournaments) following college. He also reached the quarterfinals of the Legg Mason Classic last month.
While a handful of players in the top half have the talent to go all the way, Simon could be sitting pretty for a repeat. He was on fire earlier this summer (especially in Indianapolis and Toronto) and he might be able to sit back and watch people beat each other up elsewhere in the draw as he eases through.
First-Round Upset Alert: Starace already took out Granollers on Monday; an upset according to seeding, but no real surprise. Almost every seed faces a difficult test in the opener, but none appear likely to actually happen. Simon should scrape by Korolev, and Gasquet and Moya should survive clay-court lovers Hernandez and Alberto Martin, respectively. Gulbis has lost to Teimuraz Gabashvili in all three of their previous encounters, but the 20-year-old is a much-improved player now. Devvarman has more upset potential than anyone in Romania, but unfortunately for him, Almagro is the most accomplished clay-courter in this tournament.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Somdev Devvarman, Gilles Simon
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Filippo Volandri. Potito Starace
Semifinal Predictions: Ernests Gulbis over Nicolas Almagro and Gilles Simon over Paul-Henri Mathieu.
Final Prediction: Gulbis over Simon.
COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!
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You wrote: "Gulbis has lost to Teimuraz Gabashvili in all three of their previous encounters, but the 20-year-old is a much-improved player now."
Yes, but unfortunately he's still totally unreliable. What worries me is that he doesn't seem to admit to having a major problem. To quote Myriam's comment from The Importance fansite : "I watched his interview after his match against Roddick and I especially like the part when the journalist ask him if his number of unforced errors during the match is normal????!!! and Ernests answers that he has already answered this question saying that it is normal given that he plays aggressive." What she went on to write made no sense to me, but she appears to side with the Gulbis point of view.
However, when you take into account the fact that his UE's tend to be bunched up towards the end of sets, he clearly does have a problem. Looking on the bright side, it's a problem that is surely fixable - but fixing it can only start once Gulbis accepts that it actually exists.
lwalters , 9/9/08 7:06 PM
Personally I think Gulbis needs a new coach. He's been sitting around over a year now with these mental problems (not to mention that his forehand is still extremely erratic).
I nominate Darren Cahill or Brad Gilbert.
RickyDimon , 9/9/08 7:10 PM
I SO agree RD - Cahill first, Gilbert second. What's DC up to these days anyway, he still helping Ozzie Davis Cup team?? I really should know this myself!
tenstar , 9/10/08 8:31 AM
i can't believe how terrible phm is playing these days. he needs help too. bitter pill to see gulbis out right away, a new coach is a good idea.
elle , 9/12/08 6:43 AM
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I completely jinxed Gulbis. Typical.
RickyDimon , 9/9/08 6:57 PM