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2008-08-24 11:24:04
Tennistalk’s Ricky Dimon is previewing the four quarters of the U.S. Open draw leading up to the start of the year’s last Grand Slam on Monday. Part 4 covers the fourth quarter, where Roger Federer is the No. 2 seed.
How will life as a No. 2 seed begin for Roger Federer?
If the draw has anything to do with it, it should get off to a fine start and last well into the second week of the U.S. Open, if not all the way to the final Sunday. Federer has little-known Maximo Gonzalez in the first round and would get one of two qualifiers--either Thiago Alves or Paul Capdeville--in the second. His potential seeded opponent in round three is No. 28 Radek Stepanek. The Czech stunned Federer on clay at the Masters Series Rome earlier this year, but he has not won a single match since Wimbledon. This could be just what the doctor ordered for Federer, who is normally prone to sub-par play early on in tournaments as opposed to later.
Even in the fourth round it should not be too tough for Federer. No. 13 seed Fernando Verdasco is in the midst of an outstanding 2008 campaign, but his form is questionable heading into New York. The Spaniard lost his first match in Los Angeles to Florent Serra and reached the semifinals in New Haven, but there he played a horrible match in a loss to Mardy Fish. Where will his confidence be for the U.S. Open? If Verdasco does not right the ship in a hurry, 23rd-seeded Igor Andreev could walk through the open door into the fourth round to possibly take on Federer.
The other half of this section appears far more wide open, if not altogether tougher. No. 5 seed Nikolay Davydenko had the misfortune of swapping places with David Ferrer in the rankings, so he was put and the mercy of the draw and was promptly placed in Federer's quarter. He can't be looking that far ahead, however, for a number of reasons. First, he is in a fairly major slump and his annual rigorous schedule could be catching up with him. Second, he will face significant challenges before the quarterfinals. Fellow Russian Dmitry Tursunov, seeded 26th and the nearest seed to Davydenko, is dangerous and his big serve and forehand should be well-suited for the fast U.S. Open courts. Richard Gasquet, the No. 12 seed, is a major talent and could easily take out Davydenko in the fourth round.
Gasquet, however, is part of the best first-round matchup of the entire draw. The Frenchman will take on unseeded Tommy Haas, who has struggled this year but is starting to turn his game around. During the U.S. Open Series he reached two quarterfinals and gave Rafael Nadal a run for his money in the Cincinnati third round. A lot is at stake here because the winner has a solid chance of going all the way to the quarterfinals.
Other first-round matches to watch in this section include Tursunov vs. Eduardo Schwank, Nicolas Almagro vs. Frank Dancevic, and Verdasco vs. Igor Kunitsyn.
Rick's Picks:
Third round – Davydenko over Tursunov, Gasquet over Tipsarevic, Verdasco over Andreev, Federer over Stepanek
Fourth round – Davydenko over Gasquet, Federer over Verdasco
Quarterfinal – Federer over Davydenko
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