Ricky Dimon

• U.S. Open preview: Nadal's quarter

  2008-08-22 18:48:18
  

  Tennistalk’s Ricky Dimon is previewing the four quarters of the U.S. Open draw leading up to the start of the year’s last Grand Slam on Monday. Part 1 covers the top quarter, where Rafael Nadal is the No. 1 seed.
  
  You almost have to check your glasses after glancing at the very top of the 2008 U.S. Open draw. For the first time since the 2004 Australian Open, Roger Federer is not the No. 1 seed at a Grand Slam tournament. That honor belongs to Rafael Nadal, the new No. 1 player in the world. As if anyone didn’t know, Nadal has won the French Open (his fourth in-a-row), Wimbledon (his first), and Olympic gold in men’s singles already this year. Why even bother mentioning that he reached the semifinals of the Australian Open, the final at the Masters Series Miami, and captured titles in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Hamburg, and Toronto?
  
  If Nadal adds his first U.S. Open title to an incredible 2008 resume, his season would rank right up there with the greatest individual seasons of all time, if not right at the top.
  
  The draw definitely looks like it will give Nadal a solid chance of doing just that. He will play a qualifier in round one and then either Olivier Rochus or another qualifier in the second. By the third round Nadal should not have come close to dropping a set. The Spaniard’s nearest seed—and potential third-round opponent—is No. 25 Philipp Kohlschreiber, who has slumped since stunning Andy Roddick in the third round of the Australian Open in one of the year’s best matches. Viktor Troicki, the runner-up at the Legg Mason Classic in Washington, D.C., might be favored over Kohlschreiber to reach round three in New York.
  
  Things could start to get tricky for Nadal in the fourth round. 6’10’’ Ivo Karlovic, seeded 14th, and No. 22 seed Tomas Berdych will most likely battle for the right to play Nadal early on in the event’s esteemed second week. Karlovic, who reached the semifinals at the Masters Series Cincinnati, can almost always stay close in any match thanks to his booming serve. Berdych has the talent to knock off the top players, but—other than beating Federer at the 2004 Athens Olympics—he rarely delivers.
  
  The struggling and injury-plagued David Nalbandian is the top seed (No. 7) in the bottom part of Nadal’s quarter. It is James Blake, however, who will be favored to come through and play Nadal in the quarterfinals. French Open semifinalist Gael Monfils and the always-dangerous Robin Soderling are other potential quarterfinal opponents for Nadal should Blake slip up. The 9th-seeded American fell in the second round of both the French Open and Wimbledon, but the U.S. Open is by far his favorite Grand Slam event. Monfils and Soderling, meanwhile, could meet in a blockbuster second-round clash.
  
  The best first-round matchup—their previous head-to-head encounter not withstanding—appears to be Berdych vs. Sam Querrey. Berdych destroyed Querrey earlier this year at the Masters Series Miami, but that is most likely an aberration. The 6’6’’ American is one of the biggest servers on tour and that should keep him competitive against almost anyone.
  
  Rick's Picks:
  
  Third round – Nadal over Troicki, Karlovic over Berdych, Blake over Fish, Soderling over Ferrero
  
  Fourth round – Nadal over Karlovic, Blake over Söderling
  
  Quarterfinal – Nadal over Blake

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