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2008-08-22 18:48:18
Tennistalk’s Ricky Dimon is previewing the four quarters of the U.S. Open draw leading up to the start of the year’s last Grand Slam on Monday. Part 1 covers the top quarter, where Rafael Nadal is the No. 1 seed.
You almost have to check your glasses after glancing at the very top of the 2008 U.S. Open draw. For the first time since the 2004 Australian Open, Roger Federer is not the No. 1 seed at a Grand Slam tournament. That honor belongs to Rafael Nadal, the new No. 1 player in the world. As if anyone didn’t know, Nadal has won the French Open (his fourth in-a-row), Wimbledon (his first), and Olympic gold in men’s singles already this year. Why even bother mentioning that he reached the semifinals of the Australian Open, the final at the Masters Series Miami, and captured titles in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Hamburg, and Toronto?
If Nadal adds his first U.S. Open title to an incredible 2008 resume, his season would rank right up there with the greatest individual seasons of all time, if not right at the top.
The draw definitely looks like it will give Nadal a solid chance of doing just that. He will play a qualifier in round one and then either Olivier Rochus or another qualifier in the second. By the third round Nadal should not have come close to dropping a set. The Spaniard’s nearest seed—and potential third-round opponent—is No. 25 Philipp Kohlschreiber, who has slumped since stunning Andy Roddick in the third round of the Australian Open in one of the year’s best matches. Viktor Troicki, the runner-up at the Legg Mason Classic in Washington, D.C., might be favored over Kohlschreiber to reach round three in New York.
Things could start to get tricky for Nadal in the fourth round. 6’10’’ Ivo Karlovic, seeded 14th, and No. 22 seed Tomas Berdych will most likely battle for the right to play Nadal early on in the event’s esteemed second week. Karlovic, who reached the semifinals at the Masters Series Cincinnati, can almost always stay close in any match thanks to his booming serve. Berdych has the talent to knock off the top players, but—other than beating Federer at the 2004 Athens Olympics—he rarely delivers.
The struggling and injury-plagued David Nalbandian is the top seed (No. 7) in the bottom part of Nadal’s quarter. It is James Blake, however, who will be favored to come through and play Nadal in the quarterfinals. French Open semifinalist Gael Monfils and the always-dangerous Robin Soderling are other potential quarterfinal opponents for Nadal should Blake slip up. The 9th-seeded American fell in the second round of both the French Open and Wimbledon, but the U.S. Open is by far his favorite Grand Slam event. Monfils and Soderling, meanwhile, could meet in a blockbuster second-round clash.
The best first-round matchup—their previous head-to-head encounter not withstanding—appears to be Berdych vs. Sam Querrey. Berdych destroyed Querrey earlier this year at the Masters Series Miami, but that is most likely an aberration. The 6’6’’ American is one of the biggest servers on tour and that should keep him competitive against almost anyone.
Rick's Picks:
Third round – Nadal over Troicki, Karlovic over Berdych, Blake over Fish, Soderling over Ferrero
Fourth round – Nadal over Karlovic, Blake over Söderling
Quarterfinal – Nadal over Blake
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isn't nadal normally shaky in the early stage tho? or was this a couple of notches up from being 'merely shaky'?
yep, nice write up.
tenstar , 8/26/08 4:50 AM
tenstar: you are right. He is often slow off the blocks but this was a decidedly shaky start. Go to the US Open Official Site 'Nadal passes tough first test' for a v.good write up of the match.
www.usopen.org/en_US/news/match_reports/2008-08-25/20080825121 9703290562.html
ed251137 , 8/26/08 5:51 AM
PS: Canal+Sport normally shuts down at 5a.m. but are staying with the Blake-Young match which is turning into a cliff-hanger.
ed251137 , 8/26/08 5:53 AM
I checked match stats - Rafa served well tho. 73%. I also read his interview in USO site- he admits he's exhausted. my poor baby.
sstay , 8/26/08 6:32 AM
ed thanks, i did read that review.
i see blake's won. i wouldn't have minded young winning; read a while back that he had a hard time at the late stage of his junior stint when he had sponsors and the other junior guys started to ortracize him and not invite him out to dinner like they used to. young felt really lonely and dissappointed at the way they turned against him. obviously they felt the competition but i felt really sorry for the young. would be nice to see him do well on the pro tour just to have a one-up on those noodle-heads who were mean to him.
tenstar , 8/26/08 6:57 AM
i like young hes the man... hes got chacter and style!!! pity james is my fav and am SOOOO happy to see him win!
wish young wuda got to play someone else first, hope see more of him.
nadal always says he exhaused, im sure he is, no doubts, but im sure all the top 10 r at the mo. nadal has a very physical game, hes gonna have 2 get used 2 it if he wants 2 make finals all the time like he does ;)
kaitepai , 8/26/08 8:20 AM
whoa sstay: you are in danger of sounding like sounding Popeyes Mum.
ed251137 , 8/26/08 8:42 AM
yes but in this case, sstay is completely justified in sounding like popeye's mum! ;)
tenstar , 8/26/08 10:42 AM
point taken tenstar. But 'my poor baby' was a bit much.........it does sound a bit lovesick.
ed251137 , 8/26/08 11:09 AM
But I AM his mum!
sstay , 8/27/08 3:22 AM
An avid sports fan, Ricky writes internet articles on football, baseball, and basketball, but his first love is professional tennis. He writes tennis ...
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There are already signs that the post-Olympics factor is having its effect. i.e. both Nadal and Dementieva had to struggle in their opening matches. The mixture of jet-lag (US to Bejing and back again in the space of two weeks) and euphoria/or depression is going to make the outcome of matches more unpredictable than usual.
ed251137 , 8/26/08 3:37 AM