Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer in Germany, Nadal, Djokovic in Queens

  2008-06-08 21:23:00
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  If the clay-court season was a marathon, the grass campaign is a sprint. The marathon is finally over and there’s no rest for the weary as the sprint begins immediately. If you thought as a tennis fan that you could catch your breath for a moment after the French Open, think again. We might not have a Grand Slam event on our hands this week, but three tournaments—led by the Artois Championships—will keep the ATP calendar going full steam ahead. The best news? Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic are all in action this week as the Big 3 fine-tune their games for Wimbledon. Federer is taking his customary place in the Halle, Germany field while Nadal and Djokovic are off to Queens. As for the clay-court specialists who have little motive to prepare for Wimbledon and instead want to prolong the dirt season, they are off to Warsaw, Poland.
  
  The Artois Championships
  Where: London, England
  Surface: Grass
  Prize Money: 713,000 Euros
  
  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending Champion: Andy Roddick
  
  Draw Analysis: It’s not a Masters Series event, but looking at the draw it sure has the feel of one. The top six seeds are Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick, David Nalbandian, Richard Gasquet, and Andy Murray. Also making appearances are big-serving Croats Ivo Karlovic and Mario Ancic, French Open quarterfinalists Fernando Gonzalez and Ernests Gulbis, and former World No. 1s Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt.
  
  Between Nadal and Djokovic, the draw definitely seems easier for the Serb, who is part of a much weaker bottom half. Lleyton Hewitt, who has still played very little tennis recently despite winning two matches at the French Open, might be the biggest obstacle for Djokovic at any point through the quarterfinals. Even in the semifinals it’s hard to imagine anyone in the third quarter of the draw taking Djokovic out there. No. 5 seed David Nalbandian suffered a dismal loss to Jeremy Chardy in Paris and fourth-seeded Richard Gasquet is beset by myriad problems. Heck, Ancic looks like the favorite to reach the semifinals out of that section! Also keep an eye on the winner of the first-round showdown between giants John Isner and Kevin Anderson. With such massive serves, both newcomers should thrive on the grass and it’s unfortunate one their Artois campaigns will be over after one match.
  
  Nadal has a much tougher road. Yet another man with a huge serve, Sam Querrey, is a potential third-round opponent for Nadal. Then Karlovic would likely await him in the quarterfinals. The 6’10’’ Croat, however, first has to make his way through a section of the draw that includes Gonzalez and Safin. Potential semifinal opponents for Nadal out of the second quarter of the draw include Roddick, Murray, and Gulbis. Roddick is the favorite to get there, but he pulled out of Roland Garros with an injury so it will be interesting to see how he looks. Murray floundered a little bit on the clay, but it would not be surprising to see the Scot take off on grass. Gulbis just reached the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament on what should be his worst surface, so if he can do that, what can he do on grass with all that power? The Latvian appears to have a nice draw through two rounds then could have a third-round slugfest with Murray.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Arnaud Clement over (12) Andreas Seppi. For someone who is 6’3’’, Seppi owns a serve that is nothing short of terrible. I’m not saying it’s one of the absolute worst serves in tennis, just for someone 6’3’’. That prevents him from being a formidable threat on grass and the weakness will be exploited by Clement. Seppi owns a decent 8-8 career record on grass and has a few decent scalps among those eight wins, but he also has some awful losses including a three-set drubbing at the hands of Fernando Verdasco in the second round of Wimbledon last year. Clement is basically Seppi’s opposite; the Frenchman stands just 5’8’’ but still possesses a rock-solid grass game. An outstanding doubles player, Clement knows how to take returns early, attack the net, and he also has a surprisingly big serve. Look for Clement to give Seppi a grass-court clinic, as Seppi stays back at the baseline while Clement jumps all over his opponent’s serve, serves and volleys himself, and just overwhelms Seppi with more aggressive tennis.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Fernando Gonzalez, Ernests Gulbis, Robby Ginepri, Simone Bolelli, Mario Ancic.
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): David Nalbandian, Richard Gasquet, Andy Murray, Feliciano Lopez.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over Ivo Karlovic and Novak Djokovic over Mario Ancic.
  
  Final Prediction: Djokovic over Roddick.
  
  
  Gerry Weber Open
  Where: Halle, Germany
  Surface: Grass
  Prize Money: 713,000 Euros
  
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  Defending Champion: Tomas Berdych
  
  Draw Analysis: Federer pulled out of this event in 2007 citing fatigue from his run to the French Open final. Well, he made it back to the French final, but you can bet he won’t want to disappoint the German fans once again. Assuming Federer plays, there appear to be no roadblocks whatsoever between him and the title. James Blake is the second seed but his form right now is nothing to write home about and he has never done anything overly special on grass. Blake beating Federer on grass would be the shock of the year; in a year that already has delivered plenty of shocks! In fact through three rounds I don’t see any potential opponent for Federer who can win more than a couple of games. Marcos Baghdatis, who is struggling mightily at the moment, is the nearest seed to Federer, but probably won’t make it through two rounds. The second quarter of the draw, on the other hand, is loaded and whoever emerges could be a little tricky for the Swiss in the semifinals. The winner of the first-round clash between Ivan Ljubicic and Michael Llodra could make it all the way to the semifinals, although Mikhail Youzhny, Dmitry Tursunov, and Robin Haase also have semifinal potential. Like Federer, Blake is in a quarter that he should be able to dominate as long as he plays respectable tennis, but then in the semifinals would meet a player who gets out of a brutal third quarter of the draw. Among the contenders in that section are 3rd-seeded Tomas Berdych, No. 6 seed Radek Stepanek, Tommy Haas, Phillip Kohlschreiber, Julien Benneteau, and Robin Söderling.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Michael Llodra over (8) Ivan Ljubicic. The No. 8 seed is not too out of form this season and he just made it to the fourth round of the French Open thanks to a huge upset of Nikolay Davydenko. So this pick has a lot more to do with Llodra than it does with Ljubicic. The Frenchman is playing so well in 2008 that despite a playing style that is better-suited to grass our hard courts, he recently made it to the fourth round at Roland Garros. On fast surfaces Llodra has simply been a terror. He won one of the first events of the year on the hard courts in Adelaide and then followed that up with an indoor title in Rotterdam. It’s hard to imagine many breaks of serve between Ljubicic and Llodra on grass, but Llodra’s serve-and-volley tactics that he has down to a science should help him pull out most of the crucial points. Also if Tursunov serves well against the 4th-seeded Youzhny, it would not be a shock to see him power his way past his favored compatriot.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Roger Federer, Radek Stepanek, Ivan Ljubicic, Robin Soderling, Julien Benneteau, Michael Llodra.
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tomas Berdych, Marcos Baghdatis, Jarkko Nieminen, Tommy Haas, Phillip Kohlschreiber.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Michael Llodra and Radek Stepanek over James Blake.
  
  Final Prediction: Federer over Stepanek.
  
  
  Orange Warsaw Open
  Where: Warsaw, Poland
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 425,250 Euros
  
  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
  Defending Champion: Tommy Robredo
  
  Draw Analysis: It’s definitely the least heralded of the three tournaments this week as most players and fans will gear up for Wimbledon by paying attention to the start of the grass-court season, but anyone who is a clay-court tennis fanatic cannot complain about the draw in Warsaw. Nikolay Davydenko headlines the field as the top seed while second-seeded Tommy Robredo is back to defend the title. Other contenders include Poertschach runner-up Juan Monaco, Casablanca champion Gilles Simon, Houston titlist Marcel Granollers, Guillermo Canas, and Albert Montanes. The top half of the draw with Davydenko is definitely the weaker of the two sides. The Russian has visible threats in his path to the semifinals unless you consider either Potito Starace or Evgeny Korolev to be dangerous. Simon has to be the favorite to reach the semis out of the second quarter of the draw unless Canas can suddenly and decisively turn his game around. In the bottom half all of the top contenders have seemingly comfortable first rounds on their hands. Monaco and Granollers should meet up in the quarterfinals, although the Argentine could face veteran Guillermo Coria in round two. At this point, however, Coria is just a big name; he is starting to play better, but he is just not all the way back yet. Robredo will most likely get Wayne Odesnik, one of the few Americans who prefer clay to any other surface, in the second round and one of two clay-court specialists in the quarters; Montanes or Oscar Hernandez. The field is loaded with dangerous dirtballers, but nonetheless the top four seeds all should be considerable favorites to make the semis.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Luis Horna over (5) Guillermo Canas. The No. 5 seed just isn’t the same player he was a year ago, and Canas finally seems to be slowing down at 30 years old. On his favorite surface this spring he lost matches to Robredo, Federer, Llodra, Soderling, Blake, Berdych, and most disappointingly to Odesnik in the first round of the French. Canas’ confidence has to be nonexistent heading into Warsaw. Horna has not exactly tore up the tennis circuit this season, either, but he has shown that he can still get things done on clay with a semifinal performance in Acapulco and a third-round showing at the Masters Series Rome. The Peruvian also should be feeling good about his shocking French Open doubles title, which he won with partner Pablo Cuevas. If Canas gets off to a slow start against Horna, the doubts will creep back into his mind and the underdog could runaway with the match.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Albert Montanes, Wayne Odesnik.
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Guillermo Canas, Guillermo Coria, Filippo Volandri.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Nikolay Davydenko over Gilles Simon and Tommy Robredo over Juan Monaco.
  
  Final Prediction: Davydenko over Robredo.
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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