Ricky Dimon

• French Open Preview: Top 25 (Part 9)

  2008-05-27 15:39:00
  

  In the 25 days leading up to the 2008 French Open, Ricky counted down the Top 25 contenders – starting from No. 25 and going to No. 1 – in Roland Garros. Part 9 is the final installment of the preview and includes contenders 1 and 2.
  
  #2: Roger Federer
  Federer is my No. 2 contender for several reasons, but most importantly he is No. 2 (as opposed to No. 3 behind Novak Djokovic) because of the draw. Yes, it's gotten to the point where even Federer needs some luck on his side in order to improve his French Open prospects. Djokovic, of course, is in the bottom half of the draw, leaving him with Nadal to battle it out in a potential semifinal showdown. So instead of seeing Djokovic in his semifinal, Federer would most likely run into either Nikolay Davydenko or David Ferrer. That's no easy task by any means, especially not on clay, but Djokovic is a far different beast at the moment than either Davydenko or Ferrer. Other good draw news for Federer is that the second highest seed player in his quarter is Richard Gasquet. Or should I say "was." The slumping Frenchman would not have been a threat to begin with, but now he isn't even in the tournament, having pulled out citing a knee problem. Now No. 9 seed Stanislas Wawrinka would be Federer's quarterfinal opponent if the seeds hold to form. The reason why Federer was dangerously close to being the No. 3 contender--and the reason why is nowhere near No.1--is that he just has not been the Federer of old in 2008. Shockingly, Federer has won just one of eight tournaments he has played this year, and even that came when Davydenko retired during their title match in Estoril. The No. 1 player in the world lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals, Andy Murray in Dubai, Mardy Fish in Indian Wells, and Andy Roddick in Miami during the hard-court season. The good news for Federer's French Open prospects is that his clay-court campaign has not really been that bad. Other than a tough loss to Radek Stepanek in Rome, it's been about what you would expect. After winning a Nadal-less tournament in Estoril, Federer lost spirited finals to Nadal in Monte-Carlo and Hamburg in addition to his Rome setback. With Djokovic on Nadal's side in Paris, it's hard to expect anything than a third-straight runner up performance for Federer. With a little luck (and by luck I mean Djokovic beating Nadal or at least wearing him down in a five-set battle), however, Federer just might surprise all by winning his first French Open and completing the career Grand Slam.
  
  #1: Rafael Nadal
  For a second there--and the second I am referring to is when foot blisters contributed to a stunning loss to Juan Carlos Ferrero in Rome--it looked like the French Open would be more wide open than usual. Well, so much for that. Just a few weeks later, Nadal has established himself as the odds-on favorite to capture his fourth-straight French Open title. Why is he the overwhelming favorite and the indisputable No. 1 contender on this list? Let me count thy ways. Nadal has never lost a match in Roland Garros. Yes, let me repeat that. Never. Lost. A. Match. In. Roland. Garros. The Spaniard has played three French Opens and won them all. That means he is bringing a ridiculous, unheard of, intimidating 21-0 record with him into Paris. Aside from his flawless French Open history, Nadal's clay-court efforts in 2008 alone would solidify him as the man to beat this week. He won the Masters Series Monte-Carlo and defeated Ancic, Ferrero, Ferrer, Davydenko, and Federer without losing a single set. One week later he rolled to the Barcelona title. After the setback to Ferro in Rome, Nadal stormed back to win the Masters Series Hamburg. In doing so he made a statement--and kept his No. 2 ranking--by defeating Djokovic and Federer in succession. Nadal is 15-1 on the slow stuff this season and has won a whopping 108 of his last 110 clay matches. Again I think it needs to be stressed that that's no misprint. 108 for 110. Will Nadal go the necessary seven for seven over the next two weeks to capture title number four? The draw is the only real reason why one could even begin to think otherwise. Djokovic being in the bottom half is the key factor. The Serb has the potential for an upset, but perhaps the even greater danger is Djokovic wearing Nadal down in a five-set thriller while Federer cruises easily in the other semifinal. That is Federer's best chance to finally get over the hump against Nadal at the French Open. Other potential obstacles include either David Nalbandian or Nicolas Almagro in the quarterfinals and don't overlook Nadal's little-known first-round opponent, Thomaz Bellucci. The Brazilian has been an absolute terror in clay-court Challenger events this year. Still, Bellucci won't be a problem and chances are neither will anyone else. The smart money is on Nadal going forth for his fourth.

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Ricky Dimon

Archive

Poll

Articles - Latest commented

• 
  1
  Andy Murray survives second round scare
  

  posmatrac, Aug 29, 2008 6:03 AM

• 
  9
  Wild boy Safin just wants a taste of the tennis quiet life
  

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• 
  11
  Andy Murray in the betting mix for US Open title
  

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Blog - Latest commented

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  dusko82, Aug 28, 2008 11:33 AM

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