Ricky Dimon

• French Open Preview: Top 25 (Part 8)

  2008-05-23 18:23:00
  

  In the 25 days leading up to the 2008 French Open, Ricky is counting down the Top 25 contenders – starting from No. 25 and going to No. 1 – in Roland Garros. Part 8 of the preview includes contenders 3 and 4.
  
  #4: Nikolay Davydenko
  All draws being equal, Davydenko would still be the No. 4 contender due to his performances on the court this season, including some key performances on clay. The best news for Davydenko, however, is that all draws are definitely NOT equal. That coveted number four seed will keep him out of the quarters of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. So unlike Ferrer and some of those other players in both the top 10 of the rankings and the top 10 of this list, Davydenko is guaranteed to be favored in every match he plays until the semifinals. The same cannot be said for anyone not in the top four. But let's get back to the point about Davydenko being the No. 4 contender regardless of the draw. So far in 2008 he has reached the semifinals in Doha, the fourth round of the Australian Open, the semis in Dubai, the final in Estoril, the semifinals in Monte-Carlo, and of course let's not forget that he captured his biggest title ever at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami. Just yesterday Davydenko pulled off two wins in Poertschach to reach the semifinals there and he seems poised to put another trophy on the mantle heading into the French Open. The Russian has a 12-4 match record in clay-court tournaments this season and that winning percentage should only improve with his performance in Paris. His last three appearances there have resulted in semifinal, quarterfinal, and semifinal finishes. Given Davydenko's current form and his important, previously-discussed placement in there draw, there is every reason to think he will make it back to the semifinals once again.
  
  #3: Novak Djokovic
  It was almost impossible to decide between Djokovic and Roger Federer without the benefit of seeing the draw. In a head-to-head matchup at the French Open I would lean towards Federer, due to his greater experience (12 Grand Slam titles to Djokovic's one, and two runner-up finishes in Paris) and even more importantly due to his dismantling of Djokovic in Monte-Carlo before the Serb retired in set two. On the other hand, I would lean towards Djokovic in terms of least likely to get upset in Roland Garros before the semifinals. The No. 3 player seems to be having his way with anyone other than Rafael Nadal or Federer at the moment. Since a semifinal setback against Andy Roddick in Dubai, Djokovic has lost just one match to anyone not named Federer or Nadal (that came in a shock second-round loss to Kevin Anderson at the Sony Ericsson Open). Federer, meanwhile, has lost to Andy Murray and Mardy Fish this season to go along with his losses to Roddick (in Miami), Djokovic, and Nadal. He is playing better now, but he just doesn't have the invincible feel anymore against players outside the top three, especially if he runs into some clay-court guru like Nicolas Almagro or David Ferrer. But now to the draw: Djokovic is on Nadal's side, leaving Federer safe in the half with Nikolay Davydenko. The Serb meets Denis Gremelmayr in his opener, could get Guillermo Canas in round three, and Carlos Moya in the fourth round. Any potential quarterfinal opponent does not seem too imposing, but then of course Djokovic would have Nadal in the semifinals. Still, anything short of a semifinal appearance would be a huge disappointment for Djokovic and even an upset of Nadal is not out of the question. After all, he has already won titles this season at the Australian Open, the Masters Series Indian Wells, and the Masters Series Rome. His clay-court exploits in 2008 also include semifinal performances in both Monte-Carlo and Hamburg. Count on Djokovic making it back to the French Open semifinals, where--just as he did last year--he will have a showdown with three-time defending champion Nadal.

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