Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic Resting for French

  2008-05-18 14:51:00
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  If there ever was a calm before the storm, this is it. The “storm,” of course, is next week’s French Open, and the “calm” is a week of two minor tournaments in Poertschach, Austria and Casablanca, Morocco. It goes without saying that there will be no Federer, no Nadal, and no Djokovic as the top three players rest up for Roland Garros. Nonetheless, the draws are certainly strong enough to pique the interest of diehard tennis fans. World No. 4 Nikolay Davydenko is the top-ranked player in action and he will have no cakewalk through a field in Poertschach that is by far the stronger of the two this week. Casablanca, meanwhile, is completely wide over. Even rockin’ Moroccan Younes El Aynaoui, at 37 years old, has as good a chance as any to capture the title in his native land.
  
  The Hypo Group Tennis International
  Where: Poertschach, Austria
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: € 370,000
  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
  Defending Champion: Juan Monaco
  
  Draw Analysis: Judging from the looks of this field, most of the clay-court specialists are a little worn out from this grueling dirt season and need to rest up for the big one in Paris next week. Not Juan Monaco and Andreas Seppi, however. Monaco is seeded second and Seppi, who just made it to the semifinals in Hamburg, sixth. If Seppi bounces back from last week’s tiring run, he should be able to make it to the quarterfinals and give Davydenko some trouble. The Italian, though, has to get by dangerous 19-year-old Ernests Gulbis in round one. Jurgen Melzer is in the softer section of the top half and has a good chance of pleasing his Austrian fans with a nice showing this week.
  
  Monaco has a first-round date with fellow Argentine and fairly dangerous clay-courter Carlos Berlocq. His first real test, however, should come in the form of No. 7 seed Mario Ancic in the quarterfinals. It’s anyone’s guess who the winner of that potential pairing could get in the semifinals. The seeded players in that third quarter of the draw are Sam Querrey and Ivan Ljubicic. Neither big man is particularly adept on the slow stuff, although Querrey surprised everyone with a quarterfinal appearance in Monte-Carlo.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Igor Kunitsyn over (4) Mardy Fish. Kunitsyn is ranked outside the top 100 and he hasn’t done much on the ATP Tour this season, but he should be feeling good on clay having recently reached the final of clay-court Challenger event. Fish enjoyed an incredible run to the Indian Wells title match, but he has done very little since and has looked lost on the dirt. The American got crushed by Andy Roddick in Rome and got destroyed by Albert Montanes in Hamburg. Kunitsyn would be no match for Fish on a fast surface, but on clay you have to like his chances for an upset. Also keep an eye on the first-round match between Seppi and Gulbis. Seppi could be a little tired and he is going up against a youngster with all the talent in the world in Gulbis. The Italian still should take this since it’s on clay, but it is one to watch.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andreas Seppi, Mario Ancic
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Ivan Ljubicic, Robby Ginepri
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Nikolay Davydenko over Robin Haase and Mario Ancic over Sam Querrey
  
  Final Prediction: Davydenko over Ancic
  
  
  Grand Prix Hassan II
  Where: Casablanca, Morocco
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: € 360,000
  Top Seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  2007 Champion: Paul-Henri Mathieu (not defending)
  
  Draw Analysis: Few tournaments this season have been more wide open that this one. I guess that’s a bad thing since it means Casablanca lacks star power (Tsonga is a star but he has been injured and isn’t great on clay to being with), but it’s a good thing in that the event should be a fun one to watch. The real bad news is that two of the most dangerous players, Tsonga and Albert Montanes, are meeting in the first round. That could easily be a potential title match if not for the bad fortune of the draw. With the rest of the top half devoid of any real threats, could it be an opportunity for someone like, say, long-lost Guillermo Coria to step up? Well, maybe not Coria, but perhaps either Marc Gicquel or Arnaud Clement could make a run to the semis or final.
  
  The bottom half does not have one huge name, but it does have plenty of contenders. Gael Monfils, the No. 2 seed, just won a Challenger event last week, but he has a tough first-round matchup with clay-courter Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Younes El Aynaoui, who made it to the semifinals in Munich two weeks ago, has a great draw and might even be one of the favorites to reach the Casablanca final.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Albert Montanes over (1) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga has won one clay-court match in his entire career (although he hasn’t played many) and that came last week against fellow Frenchman Nicolas Mahut in the first round of Hamburg. He followed that up, however, with a straight-set loss to Robin Soderling. Tsonga sat out with an injury all the way from the end of Miami to the start of Rome, so he is still rusty and needs match play this week to get ready for Roland Garros. But the No. 18 player in the world might be one and done in Casablanca. Montanes is the essence of a clay-court specialist and he reached the quarterfinals in Hamburg just last week. Also look for El Aynaoui to upset 8th-seeded Victor Hanescu, and don’t be surprised if Rainer Schuettler takes out No. 6 seed Chris Guccione.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Albert Montanes, Younes El Aynaoui
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Guillermo Coria, Dominik Hrbaty
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Albert Montanes over Marc Gicquel and Julien Benneteau over Younes El Aynaoui
  
  Final Prediction: Montanes over Benneteau
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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