Ricky Dimon

• French Open Preview: Top 25 Contenders (Part 6)

  2008-05-17 20:40:00
  

  In the 25 days leading up to the 2008 French Open, Ricky is counting down the Top 25 contenders – starting from No. 25 and going to No. 1 – in Roland Garros. Part 6 of the preview includes contenders 8-10.
  
  #8: Tommy Robredo
  At the beginning of 2008 I would have been shocked to know that I would soon have Robredo among the Top 10 contenders at the French Open. After all, the Spaniard was nothing short of atrocious on the hard courts earlier this season. Even though Robredo is only 26 years old, it's no secret that at this point in his career he is a threat on clay and clay only. Still, his hard-court form from January to March was even worse than what should be expected. He lost in the first round in straight sets in each of his first two tournaments then got absolutely decimated by Mardy Fish in the second round of the Australian Open. Robredo then lost to Nicolas Mahut in two sets in Rotterdam and followed that up with blowout losses to slumping Ivan Ljubicic in the third round at the Masters Series Indian Wells and to Dudi Sela in the second round at the Masters Series Miami. The No. 16 player in the world can almost be counted on to turn things around on the dirt, but those results were so bad I wasn't sure he could this time around. But Robredo has. He reached the semifinals in Valencia to kick off his clay-court campaign and then scored impressive victories over Robin Soderling and Stanislas Wawrinka in Monte-Carlo before falling to David Nalbandian. Robredo built on that success with consecutive quarterfinal finishes in Barcelona and Rome. His scalps during that stretch included Guillermo Canas, Juan Ignacio Chela, and Nikolay Davydenko. Robredo's run in Hamburg ended a bit prematurely with a third-set-tiebreaker loss to Ivo Karlovic, but that was not before he pulled out a tough three-setter against German hope Philipp Kohlschreiber in round one. Tennis fans have every reason to count on Robredo's solid form continuing in Roland Garros, a place that he has simply loved in the past. He has played it seven times and has not once been eliminated before the third round. His performances are as follows: fourth round, third round, quarterfinals, fourth round, quarterfinals, fourth round, quarterfinals. Robredo will once again be get a great seed in Paris and that should allow him to roll right back to round four. If he can avoid the top three players in his eighth of the draw, Robredo should equal his three best-ever performances.
  
  #9: Juan Carlos Ferrero
  Five years after his French Open title--and five years after he briefly became No. 1 in the world--Ferrero is far more inconsistent now, but still very dangerous. Well, still dangerous on clay at least, and that's all that matters heading into Roland Garros. Last week at the Masters Series Rome, Ferrero stunned Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-1 in the second round. Doubters might say that the only reason Ferrero won is because Nadal had serious blisters on his feet--and Nadal certainly did have serious blisters--but Ferrero was simply sensational and it's impossible to say for sure that he would not have defeated even a 100-percent Nadal. The 23rd-ranked player also posted a win over Nicolas Kiefer in the first round of Rome, although he fell Stanislas Wawrinka just one day after pulling off the huge upset. As an indication of his inconsistency, Ferrero lost to Marat Safin in the first round of Valencia to kick off his clay-court campaign. That's not an absolutely terrible loss, as the Russian is starting to play better, but match against Safin on clay is one Ferrero should win. The Spaniard bounced back in Monte-Carlo with victories over Michael Llodra and Jarkko Nieminen, but he ran into Nadal in round three and could not produce the same kind of tennis that he would one week later in Rome. There's not much use in discussing Ferrero's hard-court stretch earlier this season, because a much different player on the dirt at this point in his career (he is 28-years-old), but I will anyway. Ferrero started 2008 off by finishing runner-up in Adelaide and then he crushed David Nalbandian at the Australian Open en route to a fourth-round appearance. After that it was all downhill for Ferrero, who basically waited for the clay to resurrect his game. It did, and there's no reason to think his level won't continue to rise in Paris. After all, the French Open has been extremely kind to Ferrero in the past. In addition to his 2003 triumph, he reached the semifinals in 2000 and 2001 (lost to Gustavo Kuerten both times) and the final in 2002 (lost to Albert Costa). His last three appearances in Roland Garros resulted in third-round performances; nothing more, nothing less. Despite his age he is actually playing better now than in more recent years so a run beyond the third round this time around would not be surprising, and maybe even should be expected. Expecting a return to the semis, however, is unrealistic--probably even if Ferrero happens to be in the quarter of the draw that lacks Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic.
  
  #10: David Nalbandian
  After a brief streak of healthy players on this list, we're back into the realm of the banged-up with not only Gonzalez, but to an even greater extent David Nalbandian. It's unclear whether or not an arm problem has been the main culprit for Nalbandian's recent malaise on the court, but the bottom line is he has not been getting it done as you would expect on clay. It's been an up-and-down 2008 for the Argentine on both hard courts and the dirt. He suffered a dismal three-set massacre at the hands of Juan Carlos Ferrero in the third round of the Australian Open, but bounced right back to win a clay-court title in Buenos Aires. Nalbandian followed that up with a runner-up finish in Acapulco, where he lost to Nicolas Almagro in the final. His spring hard-court season started off well enough, with a trip to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. Immediately thereafter, however, the No. 7 player in the world crashed of Miami in his first match against Xavier Malisse. Not surprisingly it was time for another resurrection in his game as the season turned back to the red stuff. Nalbandian posted two big Davis Cup wins (including 9-7 in the fifth set over Robin Soderling) and then won two matches in Monte-Carlo (including a 6-1, 6-0 destruction of Tommy Robredo) before falling to Roger Federer in three sets. The next ebb in the ebb-and-flow trend of Nalbandian's season came with a blowout loss to Stanislas Wawrinka in the third round of Barcelona, and he lost his first match in Rome to Nicolas Almagro in straight sets. Nalbandian has not played since, so he'll be bringing a lot of questions marks about his game into Roland Garros, a place where he has enjoyed success in the past. In his last four French Open appearances he has not once been eliminated before the fourth round. That impressive stretch included semifinal finishes in 2004 (lost to eventual champ Gaston Gaudio) and 2006 (lost to Roger Federer). The odds are against him making it that far this time around, but you just never know when Nalbandian is going to catch fire. The other good news is that his stellar seeding should allow him to avoid Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic at any point before the quarterfinals, so a quarterfinal showing really wouldn't be all that shocking.

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