Ricky Dimon

• French Open Preview: Top 25 Contenders (Part 5)

  2008-05-15 15:19:00
  

  In the 25 days leading up to the 2008 French Open, Ricky is counting down the Top 25 contenders – starting from No. 25 and going to No. 1 – in Roland Garros. Part 5 of the preview includes contenders 11-13.
  
  #13: Guillermo Canas
  Canas is going downhill...and apparently pretty fast. If I make a revised Top 25 list right before the French Open he most likely wouldn't be anywhere on it, but as of two weeks ago I still felt OK about his chances. Since then, however, Canas' results have been less than stellar. The Argentine won two matches in Barcelona, but then got crushed by Tommy Robredo. In Rome he barely survived Gianluca Naso in the first round before putting up little resistance in a straight-set loss to Roger Federer. Worst of all, in an opening-round match in Hamburg today, Canas fell to Michael Llodra in two sets. The Frenchman has had a great year in singles so far, but on clay he is someone Canas has absolutely no business losing to. Canas is 30 years old now, and after a resurgent 2007 campaign, it seems like his age might finally be catching up with him. Nonetheless, there is hope for Canas yet. Despite his age, he is still one of the fastest players on tour and a flat-out grinder. Sure he doesn't have huge weapons, but Canas makes fewer unforced errors than almost any other player and he makes opponents work outrageously hard to beat him (at least when is playing well, unlike right now). Playing best three-out-of-five matches at Roland Garros should help Canas turn things around. The red clay in Paris has certainly been kind to him in the past. Canas is a three-time quarterfinalist (2002, 2005, and 2007). Since 2001 his only result worse than fourth-round appearance (other than missing the event twice) was a five-set first-round loss in 2004 to eventual champion Gaston Gaudio. Canas is probably going to be one of the last players seeded, so in the third round he most likely face one of the top guys. An exit at that point is likely, but if he can avoid Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic in his section, a trip back to the fourth round is not beyond imagination.
  
  #12: Igor Andreev:
  Andreev has no business being outside the top 10 on a list of contenders at any clay-court tournament. I know that, all tennis fans should know that, and Andreev himself knows that. Unfortunately the results just don't justify a position higher than No. 12 at the moment. Andreev's clay-court campaign this season has been solid, but far from the spectacular that you would expect. The Russian's first clay-court swing back in February featured a quarterfinal appearance in Buenos Aires (lost to Jose Acasuso in three sets), but it also included two disappointing first-round losses to Eduardo Schwank in Costa Do Sauipe and Albert Montanes in Acapulco. During the current stretch on dirt, Andreev made it to the quarterfinals at the Masters Series Monte-Carlo and the third round of the Masters Series Rome, where he played a high-quality match against Novak Djokovic only to fall in three sets. The No. 26 player in the world, however, also fell in the first round of Valencia to Evgeny Korolev and dropped a second-round contest to Juan Martin Del Potro in Munich. Some hard-court showings were especially impressive for Andreev, who reached the quarterfinals both in Dubai and at the Masters Series Miami. If he can do that on hard courts, what should he be able to do on his most preferred surface in Roland Garros? Well, clearly Andreev has to find some sort of consistency if he wants to make a deep run at the French Open. He did exactly that in 2007, making it to the quarterfinals before losing to Djokovic. Andreev has made three trips to the French and he has never been eliminated before the third round. He will get a nice seed there this year, so it would be surprising if he did not progress at least that far once again. If Andreev can find his normal clay-court form and also get a somewhat favorable draw, there is absolutely no other reason why he can't make it back to the quarterfinals.
  
  #11: Fernando Gonzalez
  Gonzalez's talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, so is his inconsistency. It's been that way for the Chilean once again in 2008. His year started with a disappointing third-round loss to Marin Cilic at the Australian Open, but Gonzalez bounced right back to win a clay-court tournament in Vina Del Mar, Chile. Back on the hard courts, Gonzalez lost early-round matches to Evgeny Korolev, Mario Ancic, Guillermo Canas, and even to Chris Guccione in a Challenger event. When the season returned to the red stuff, the No. 22 ranked player in the world promptly took home the trophy in Munich. Gonzalez's stellar form on clay continued with wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Korolev in Rome, but a right leg injury halted his progress and prevented him from playing his next scheduled match against Nicolas Almagro. Gonzalez is not in Hamburg this week, but reportedly he will be 100 percent for Roland Garros. He'll have to be if he has hopes of justifying this ranking with a run to the second week of the French Open. He has made it that far just once before, back in 2003 when he reached the quarterfinals. In his last four appearances Gonzalez has two first-round exits, a second-round departure, and a third-round setback at the hands of Roger Federer in 2005. Gonzalez is so inconsistent that it is risky to predict a return to the quarterfinals, but he certainly has the talent for it. As evidenced by his run to the 2007 Australian Open final (among many other examples), when Gonzalez is in form and on fire he has is almost impossible to beat. At those times it's even hard for opponents to stay on the same court with him. Combine that talent with his favorite surface, clay, and what you have is a dangerous player that nobody really wants to face. Neither a first-round loss nor a run back to the quarterfinals would be surprising from Gonzalez this time in Paris.

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