Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Rafael Nadal Unchallenged in Barcelona

  2008-04-28 09:56:00
  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  A brief reprieve from Masters Series events takes place this week, but instead of having one huge tournament on our hands, we have two tournaments to follow. Barcelona, of course, is far bigger than Munich, but even the BMW Open has enough star power to intrigue any faithful tennis fan. The hometown crowd will be pinning its hopes on defending champion Philipp Kohlschreiber, although the fans will also be expecting a turnaround for Tommy Haas. Massive talents Fernando Gonzalez and Marat Safin also raise the level of intrigue in the event as they attempt to end slumps. Rafael Nadal has no Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic to share the spotlight with him in Barcelona, but David Nalbandian, James Blake, Andy Murray, and fellow Spaniards David Ferrer and Carlos Moya will join him in Spain.
  
  Open Sabadell Atlantico
  Where: Barcelona, Spain
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 888,000 Euros
  
  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  
  Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal
  
  Draw Analysis: With Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic taking this week off, there are three quarters of the Barcelona draw you want to be in if you’re a player. Of course that would be the second, third and fourth, and as far away from Rafael Nadal as possible. That didn’t work out so well for Peter Luczak or Potito Starace, who would play Nadal in the second round (Nadal and the rest of the type eight seeds get byes in round one). No. 16 Feliciano Lopez is the nearest seed and would get Nadal in the third round, while No. 5 Carlos Moya or No. 11 Juan Carlos Ferrero would meet Nadal in the quarters. James Blake and Andy Murray are the top seeds in the second quarter, but No. 10 Nicolas Almagro is a machine on clay—especially this season—and has to be considered the favorite to come out of there to the semifinals.
  
  The other half of the draw is the one that’s loaded with clay-court talent. It’s going to be week-long slugfest between the likes of David Nalbandian, David Ferrer Tommy Robredo, Guillermo Canas, and Fernando Verdasco for the right to play Nadal (one can only assume) in the final. Even dangerous lesser-known clay court specialists like Oscar Hernandez and Houston champion Marcel Granollers loom large in that half of the draw. Tennis fans probably also notice that long-lost Guillermo Coria, who has never been the same since collapsing in the 2004 French Open final at the hands of Gaston Gaudio, is in that section. He’ll be a heavy underdog against Hernandez in the first round.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Kevin Anderson over (15) Dmitry Tursunov. At 6’9’’ and armed with a massive serve, Anderson would rather be playing on hard courts or grass, but don’t discount him as a pretender in Barcelona just because he is on clay. The South African moves extremely well for a big man and he is surprisingly strong from the baseline, as he showed in his Sony Ericsson Open stunner over Djokovic. Don’t forget that Tursunov isn’t exactly at home on the red dirt, either. The Russian is often criticized as a brainless ball-basher, and for good reason. Tursunov likes to end points early with big serves and forehands, but living life like that on the clay is difficult. Nicolas Lapentti over 13th-seeded Fernando Verdasco and Jose Acasuso over No. 15 seed Feliciano Lopez would also not come as big surprises.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Rafael Nadal, Nicolas Almagro, Marcel Granollers, David Ferrer.
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jarkko Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic (2-5 in his last seven matches), Fernando Verdasco.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Rafael Nadal over Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer over David Nalbandian.
  
  Final Prediction: Nadal over Ferrer.
  
  
  
  BMW Open
  Where: Munich, Germany
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 349,000 Euros
  
  Top Seed: Paul-Henri Mathieu
  
  Defending Champion: Philipp Kohlschreiber
  
  Draw Analysis: You know Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic are not in a tournament when Paul-Henri Mathieu is the No. 1 seed. In fact when that’s the case, you also know that a whole lot more top players than just the Big 3 are missing—the top 11 to be exact. While that’s not exactly a good thing for hoopla or fanfare surrounding the tournament, it’s a great thing in terms of the draw being completely wide open. This is literally anyone’s tournament to win. The guys in the top half, however, will have a much easier road as it is by far the softer section of the draw. Mathieu has Evgeny Korolev and No. 8 seed Marin Cilic in his quarter, but he just beat Cilic on hard courts in Miami and therefore definitely should be able to take him out on clay. Other than that—unless veteran and Houston doubles champion Rainer Schuettler enjoys an out-of-nowhere singles resurgence—Mathieu seems to have a clear path to the semis, where he would most likely meet third-seeded Philipp Kohlschreiber. It would take a massive upset for the defending champion to fall at any point before the semis in front of the German crowd.
  
  The bottom half of the draw, on the other hand, is loaded with big names. Among them are No. 2 seed Fernando Gonzalez, No. 4 Igor Andreev, No. 5 Tommy Haas, Marat Safin, Gael Monfils, and Juan Martin Del Potro. Only Andreev is in top form at the moment, but all of those guys can get hot at any moment and make noise in Munich.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Olivier Rochus over (8) Marin Cilic. Since reaching the Chennai semifinals in his first tournament of the year and then enjoying a breakout fourth-round performance at the Australian Open, Cilic has failed to win more than one match in six straight events. Last week in Monte-Carlo, in his first clay appearance of 2008, he fell to Nicolas Kiefer. Rochus has not exactly been on fire, himself, but the little guy should be able to handle Cilic’s huge serve on clay. Rochus also took the first set off Roger Federer in the first round of Monte-Carlo, so clearly the Belgian can be dangerous. Also look for Michael Berrer to upset 5th-seeded Tommy Haas in an all-German clash assuming Haas is still far from 100 percent.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Igor Andreev (two straight Masters Series quarterfinals).
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tommy Haas, Marat Safin, Fernando Gonzalez, Juan Martin Del Potro (has played just five matches in 2008, 2-3 record).
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Paul-Henri Mathieu and Igor Andreev over Fernando Gonzalez.
  
  Final Prediction: Andreev over Kohlschreiber.
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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