Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Let the Rafael Nadal Season Begin

  2008-04-21 09:13:00
  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Enough of this small tournament stuff! After a week that featured three field-of-32 tournaments, coming shortly after two straight Masters Series events in the United States, we’re back to the Masters Series again, this time on clay. In all seriousness the three tournaments last week were actually pretty good, but still it’s nice to begin arguably the best stretch of the entire year, the European clay-court season leading up to the French Open.
  
  The only person who should enjoy this time of year more than tennis fans is, of course, Rafael Nadal. He has dominated on the red stuff for the past three seasons, although he did lose to Roger Federer in last year’s Hamburg final before getting revenge on the world No. 1 at Roland Garros. As for Monte-Carlo this week, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Nadal lifting the trophy. Federer was not even in form on hard courts, so surely he won’t be on clay even though he looked better last week in Estoril. Djokovic still needs a breakout performance on the dirt before he can be considered a real threat to Nadal. Davydenko is on a roll, but on clay against Nadal it’s just not going to happen.
  
  Masters Series Monte-Carlo
  Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 2,270,000 Euros
  
  
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  
  Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal
  
  Draw Analysis: Every member of the “Big 3” is in Monte-Carlo, but don’t think for a second that any one of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic will cruise into the semifinals with no sweat. Federer appears to have a clear path to the quarterfinals, although Fernando Verdasco should not be overlooked on clay in the third round. David Nalbandian—or even Robin Söderling—looms large as a potential quarterfinal opponent. Federer has Djokovic on his half of the draw this time around, and while Djokovic is in a comparably soft quarter, he is no shoe-in for the semis. Richard Gasquet and Carlos Moya in the bottom part of that section are both tough outs on the dirt.
  
  As for Nadal, he will most likely have to contend with Valencia champion David Ferrer in the quarterfinals. Even before that Nadal’s road could feature encounters with Mario Ancic and Juan Carlos Ferrero. Nikolay Davydenko has a good draw in the other quarter of the field, but clay-court genius and Valencia runner-up Nicolas Almagro has to be considered the favorite (or at least even with Davydenko) to advance.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Sebastien Grosjean over (15) Ivo Karlovic. While clay is the surface on which Karlovic least likes to play, the 6’10’’ Croat is actually pretty solid on the red stuff. He won the title in Houston last year, but he decided not to defend the title last week, instead opting to go to Estoril, where he retired in his first-round match. Grosjean, a 29-year-old veteran, can still get things done on the tennis court and he has been quietly solid in 2008. The Frenchmen also should present a problematic matchup for Karlovic on red clay. Grosjean has one of the best returns of serve in the game and he should get plenty of looks against the big man’s deliveries on the slow surface. Once baseline rallies ensue, Grosjean can wear Karlovic down. Also count on Marc Gicquel taking out Jarkko Nieminen, look for Jose Acasuso to oust Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Feliciano Lopez over clay-novice Andy Murray is also a strong possibility.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nicolas Almagro, Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer, Mario Ancic, Rafael Nadal.
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer (sure he won Estoril, but 1) it was a minor event and 2) it was a struggle), Jarkko Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic (1-4 in his last four matches), Tommy Haas, Richard Gasquet, Marat Safin, Michael Llodra (0-4 match record since winning two titles).
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal over Nicolas Almagro
  
  Final Prediction: Nadal over Djokovic
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

Tell a friend »

Comments

Write comment

You have to be logged in to comment. If you do not have an account, click here to register. It only takes a minute and you'll be redirected back to this page.

Username:

Password:

Archive

Unibet Mobile prematch,live betting

Recommend Tennistalk

Follow us

Poll

Articles - Latest commented

• 
  4

  Federer, Ferrero clash in Rome third round
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 9:02 AM

• 
  3

  Federer wins Rome opener over Berlocq
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 8:55 AM

• 
  2

  Nadal headlines third-round action on Thursday
  

  nadline, May 17, 2012 8:37 AM

• 
  1

  Murray gets birthday warning swearing in victory
  

  ts38, May 17, 2012 3:15 AM

• 
  6

  Berdych, Almagro battle for Rome quarterfinals
  

  RickyDimon, May 17, 2012 2:50 AM

Blog - Latest commented

• 
  61
  Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
  

  Nativenewyorker, May 17, 2012 9:52 AM

• 
  73
  Novak Djokovic takes up skating at the Madrid ice rink
  

  hawkeye, May 17, 2012 12:53 AM

• 
  207
  Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
  

  hrsikesa, May 16, 2012 4:23 PM

Tell a friend

Other tennis links

• www.tennisnews.com
• www.menstennisforums.com
• www.sonyericssonwtatour.com
• Tennisplaza
• More links...