Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Roger Federer Only One of Big 3 in Action

  2008-04-14 17:27:00
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Davis Cup quarterfinal action entertained fans for the past three days, but it was still a short week of tennis without any ATP tournaments going on. This week, however, will more than make up for the shortage, as there are three events to whet the appetites of tennis fans. Roger Federer headlines the field in Portugal, while the tournaments in Spain and the United States also boast at least one participant ranked in the Top 10.

   

  Estoril Open

  Where: Estoril, Portugal
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: €370,000
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  
  Draw Analysis: Federer will be the story of this tournament, at least for as long as he is in it. The world No. 1 has failed to a win a title in three events this season and all eyes will be on him this week to see if he can end the “slump.” There doesn’t appear to be much in his section of the draw to hinder that attempt. Federer has Olivier Rochus in the first round, and the most daunting potential opponent between him and the final is fourth-seeded Jarkko Nieminen, who is playing anything but good tennis at the moment. Nikolay Davydenko, the Miami champion, and Ivo Karlovic, who won the title in Houston at this time last year, are both in the bottom half. Davydenko has a tough matchup with Jurgen Melzer in round one, and don’t overlook this potential second-round affair: Davydenko vs. Martin Vassallo Arguello. Yes, that would be a rematch of last season’s infamous contest in Sopot, Poland in which Davydenko is still be accused of match-fixing.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Denis Gremelmayr over (4) Jarkko Nieminen. Gremelmayr has put up some decent results this season, including a win over Sam Querrey on the hard courts of San Jose, and he has plenty of experience on the red stuff via Challenger events. The real reason for this being a potential upset, however, is Nieminen’s form. Since reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year, the Finn has not won a single match. That’s right; he is winless in last six times out on the court. That does not inspire confidence, regardless of the opponent.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko.
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer, Jarkko Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic (1-3 in his last four matches).
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Philipp Petzschner and Nikolay Davydenko over Ivo Karlovic.
  
  Final Prediction: Federer over Davydenko

   

  U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship

  Where: Houston, Texas
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: US $436,000
  Top Seed: James Blake
  
  Draw Analysis: Look no further than the very top of the draw to find a blockbuster first-round matchup. Top-seeded James Blake will take on Kei Nishikori in a rematch of this season’s Delray Beach final, in which the Japanese qualifier came back from a set down to stun the American. If Blake is lucky enough to get revenge, he will probably have to deal with Argentine Agustin Calleri in the quarterfinals. A potential semifinal opponent would not be as daunting, as the second section of the draw merely consists of Mardy Fish, Oscar Hernandez, and Donald Young among others. The bottom half is a free-for-all, as seeded players Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Dudi Sela, and Marcel Granollers-Pujol are far from unbeatable at the moment. This is a good opportunity for talented youngsters John Isner and Ernests Gulbis to break out, even though clay is arguably their worst surface. That’s just how wide open the bottom half is.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Nicolas Massu over (4) Sam Querrey. There’s no other way to say it: the veteran Massu has simply been bad in 2008. There is good news, however, for the Chilean. He has had at least a few decent results (close losses to talented opponents) this season and he can still get things done on clay. Furthermore, Querrey has failed to build on the momentum of winning his first ATP title in Las Vegas one month ago. He lost to Lleyton Hewitt in the second round of Indian Wells then got destroyed by Tomas Berdych in the second round of Miami. On anything other than clay Querrey would be a heavy favorite, but you have to like Massu’s chances in a grueling baseline battle.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): James Blake (quarterfinals of last two Master Series events and two wins in Davis Cup action last weekend), Mardy Fish (Indian Wells runner-up).
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Ernests Gulbis, Robby Ginepri (injury), John Isner (injury), Nicolas Massu, Donald Young.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Agustin Calleri over Oscar Hernandez and Nicolas Massu over Dudi Sela.
  
  Final Prediction: Calleri over Massu.

   

  Open de Tenis Comunidad Valenciana

  Where: Valencia, Spain
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: €370,000
  Top Seed: David Ferrer
  
  Draw Analysis: Even though none of the very top players are here, this should be an extremely high-quality tournament throughout the week. Not surprisingly, some of the best clay-court specialists in the world are in Spain to fine-tune their games leading up to the French Open. Top-seeded David Ferrer is on a quarterfinal collision course with countryman Fernando Verdasco and fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo could meet the winner of that in the semis. The slumping Robredo, however, would have to navigate through a section of the draw that includes Gael Monfils and Potito Starace. The bottom half is just loaded with clay masters. It’s almost impossible to predict who will emerge from a star-studded group that includes Juan Monaco, Igor Andreev, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and a talented crop of unseeded players including Marat Safin, Evgeny Korolev, and Robin Haase.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Two battles between compatriots could result in opening-round upsets. Third-seeded Tommy Robredo is taking on fellow Spaniard Albert Montanes, while eighth-seeded Potito Starace is going up against fellow Italian Simone Bolelli. Robredo is just 2-6 in ATP tournament matches this season and Montanes is dangerous enough on clay to take advantage of a slumping opponent. Starace is strong on clay, but he has a mere 5-6 match record so far in 2008. Bolelli is coming off a nice showing in Miami, where he won two matches (including an upset of Philipp Kohlschreiber) and had eventual champion Nikolay Davydenko on the brink of defeat in round three.
  
  Momentum Builders: Simone Bolelli, Nicolas Almagro.
  
  Slump Busters: David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils (injury), Marat Safin.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: David Ferrer over Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro over Igor Andreev.
  
  Final Prediction: Almagro over Ferrer

  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE ENCOURAGED!

   

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