Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Djokovic will win Sony Ericsson Open

  2008-03-26 11:20:00
  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. He previews all tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  They don’t call this the “Fifth Major” for nothing. Obviously the Sony Ericsson Open is not at all officially tennis’ fifth Grand Slam, but all you have to do is look at the draw to understand why it is often labeled as such. All the big names are there and incredible matchups (on paper) litter the bracket from start to finish. Isner-Monfils in round one, Ancic-Murray in round two, Canas-Gonzalez in round three, and Roddick-Tsonga (early Davis Cup preview!) in round four to name just a few potential thrillers. There are however, two questions that are far and away the most pressing when it comes to the 2008 Masters Series Miami. 1) In this crazy season, who will emerge as the weekly surprise player?, and 2) Which one of the big three will make the biggest statement (either positive or negative): Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic?
  
  Sony Ericsson Open (Masters Series)
  Where: Miami, Florida
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: US $3,770,000
  
  
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  
  Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic
  
  Draw Analysis: All eyes are always on Roger Federer, but usually it’s because fans can’t wait to see what kind of brilliance the world No. 1 comes up with next. Over the next 11 days in Miami, however, all eyes will be on him to find out exactly what the heck is going on. Will the almost unrecognizable Federer, who is mired in a surprising slump, emerge once again, or will the Federer of previous years resurface to take the title? He cannot blame the draw if the latter does not happen. Federer has either John Isner or Gael Monfils on Saturday night. After that he would get Robin Soderling (hardly formidable in outdoor settings), Stefan Koubek, or 28th-seeded Stanislas Wawrinka. After that it would most likely go Hewitt in the fourth round and Roddick in the quarters. Federer routinely dominates both of those guys. Perhaps most importantly, Novak Djokovic is Nadal’s—not Federer’s—half of the draw.
  
  Djokovic doesn’t appear to have much of a challenge in his quarter of the bracket. 2007 Sony Ericsson Open runner-up Guillermo Canas is a potential fourth-round opponent, but Djokovic just crushed him last week in Indian Wells. Eighth-seeded Richard Gasquet, 10th-seeded Tomas Berdych, and 17th-seeded Fernando Gonzalez are not playing well enough right now to threaten the Serb.
  
  Nadal should be able to cruise until the quarterfinals. Tommy Haas could provide a bit of resistance in the third round if he can take out Nicolas Kiefer in round one and then No. 25 Jarkko Nieminen in the second. Potential quarterfinal opponents for the Spaniard include No. 7 David Nalbandian and No. 9 James Blake. Nadal better hope No. 27 Radek Stepanek crashes the quarterfinal party, because Nalbandian and Blake have not been kind to the No. 2 player in the world. He did, however, defeat Blake for the first time last week at the Pacific Life Open.
  
  As usual, Nikolay Daydenko’s quarter of the draw is completely wide open. The No. 4 seed will have his hands full right away in his first match against Ernests Gulbis (assuming the talented Latvian takes out rusty Dominik Hrbaty in round one). If he gets by Gulbis, Philipp Kohlschreiber is cause for concern in the third round and Andy Murray will present major problems in the fourth. Fifth-seeded David Ferrer, 13th-seeded Mikhail Youzhny, and even unseeded Mario Ancic all have the potential to make a run to the quarterfinals out of this section. Marat Safin has a much better chance of losing to Bobby Reynolds in round one than he does of coming through this part of the bracket, but you just never know with the Russian. Indian Wells runner-up Mardy Fish is another dangerous unseeded player in this quarter and he has a great draw to boot.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Bobby Reynolds over Marat Safin. This has nothing to do with Reynolds and everything to do with Safin. The mercurial Russian is simply playing atrocious tennis at the moment. Disinterested would also be an appropriate adjective to describe him. Safin is in the midst of a wretched four-match losing streak dating back to a second-round loss to Marcos Baghdatis at the Australian Open. Reynolds is a little-known American who has not been putting up great results of late, but he did qualify for this event by defeating Donald Young in straight sets on Tuesday, so he must be in relatively decent form. He is also a player who can spend all day on the court getting balls back, and that’s a perfect recipe for getting the best of Safin, and now more than ever.
  
  In terms of potential upsets in the seeded players first round of matches (officially the second round since seeds get byes), look for most if not all of the following to take place: Robin Haase over No. 31 Igor Andreev, Tommy Haas over No. 25 Jarkko Nieminen, Hyung-Taik Lee over No. 14 Tommy Robredo, Mardy Fish over No. 24 Nicolas Almagro, and Janko Tipsarevic over No. 29 Fernando Verdasco.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Stanislas Wawrinka (quarterfinals in Indian Wells), Andy Roddick (Dubai champion), Andy Murray (two titles and a win over Federer in 2008), Sam Querrey (winner in Las Vegas last week), Michael Llodra (two titles this season), Novak Djokovic (Australian Open champion, Indian Wells Champion), Mardy Fish (Indian Wells runner-up).
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer, Gael Monfils, Tommy Robredo, Nikolay Davydenko, Dominik Hrbaty, Marat Safin, Mikhail Youzhny, Richard Gasquet, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, Nicolas Kiefer, Carlos Moya, Jarkko Nieminen, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Monaco.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over David Ferrer and Novak Djokovic over James Blake
  
  Final Prediction: Novak Djokovic over Andy Roddick
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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