Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: February March 3-March 9 Edition

  2008-03-02 17:55:00
  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  In the weeks since the Australian Open, it has been mediocre tournament after mediocre tournament on the ATP Tour. Any tennis fans who aren’t religiously devoted to the sport certainly tuned out, and some shocking surprises that sent some of the bigger names home earlier than expected certainly didn’t help the already-little fanfare surrounding the events (Sergiy Stakhovsky winning in Zagreb, anyone?). This week, however, things are really heating up as the players fine-tune their games for the rapidly-approaching U.S. hardcourt Masters Series events in Indian Wells, California and Miami, Florida. The draw in Dubai is nothing short of loaded from top to bottom, while the Tennis Channel Open in Las Vegas has more than enough intrigue, especially when you consider just how many of the top players are heading over to Dubai.
  
  Barclays Dubai Tennis Championships
  Where: Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: US $1,401,000
  
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  
  Draw Analysis: Without question this is the second best tournament of the year so far (behind the Australian Open, of course). The top seven players in the world are all in Dubai and plenty of others who are high seeds at most tournaments aren’t even seeded here. How’s this for an illustration of how loaded this field is: not only is 12th-ranked Andy Murray unseeded, but he’s playing Roger Federer in the first round! The rest of the top half is not as stacked as the bottom section of the draw, but fourth-seeded David Ferrer and eighth-seeded Tomas Berdych are dangerous up there. The bottom half is simply going to feature blockbuster matchups every step of the way. Just look at these first-round showdowns: Richard Gasquet vs. Dmitry Tursunov, Novak Djokovic vs. Marin Cilic, Andy Roddick vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Rafael Nadal vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber. Roddick could play Paul-Henri Mathieu in round two and Nadal in the quarterfinals! Djokovic’s road just to make it to the semifinals could be the following: Cilic-Youzhny-Gasquet. Wow.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Andy Murray over Roger Federer? I don’t think so! Instead of looking at that very top part of the draw for a potential upset, go all the way down to the bottom where Philipp Kohlschreiber is taking on Rafael Nadal. The German stunned Andy Roddick in a classic third-round battle at the Australian Open and Nadal is still struggling to find a rhythm on hard courts so the surface will favor Kohlschreiber. Fabrice Santoro over Mikhail Youzhny also should not surprise anyone. ‘The Magician’ is never fun to play against and Youzhny has been mediocre at best ever since an awesome January. Other than that, there are just too many good players in this field for many first-round results to be considered “upsets.”
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Murray (10-2, two titles in 2008), Andy Roddick (10-2, one title in 2008), Paul-Henri Mathieu (this season: one quarterfinal, one semifinal, and a fourth-round in Australia), Novak Djokovic (Australian Open champion).
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Fernando Verdasco (lost in second round of all four tournaments he’s played in 2008), Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Haas (coming back slowly from injury), Feliciano Lopez (1-4 match record this season), Gael Monfils (has not played since September), Igor Andreev (already three first-round exits this year).
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over David Ferrer and Andy Roddick over Richard Gasquet
  
  Final Prediction: Roger Federer over Andy Roddick
  
  Tennis Channel Open
  Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: US $436,000
  
  Top Seed: Fernando Gonzalez
  
  Draw Analysis: Almost all of the world’s best are taking their acts to Dubai, but there are enough big-name players wanting to get a tune-up in the U.S. before the Masters Series events to make the Tennis Channel Open easily worth watching. The top half of the draw is especially strong. No. 1 seed Fernando Gonzalez could play two-time 2008 titlist Michael Llodra in the quarterfinals and then in-form Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals. Llodra, however, might have to deal with 6’9’’ John Isner before even getting to Gonzo. Soderling looks he’ll have to navigate a road (starting in the second round) of Gulbis-Baghdatis-Gonzalez/Llodra if he wants to continue his streak of reaching tournament finals. Robby Ginepri has reached the quarterfinals and semifinals of his last two tournaments, respectively, and could pose problems for Baghdatis is round two.
  
  The bottom half of the draw pales in comparison to the top, but it dose posses the most interesting opening-round matchup in Marat Safin vs. second-seeded Lleyton Hewitt. Even though neither Hewitt nor Safin (especially not Safin) has been playing particularly well of late, the winner of that match should be favored to make it all the way to the final. Injury-plagued veteran Guillermo Canas, a sensation on the U.S. hard courts last spring, is probably the only one who can threaten either Hewitt or Safin in the bottom section, but he’ll have to be 100-percent healthy in order to do that.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Dudi Sela over (1) Fernando Gonzalez. The top-seeded Gonzalez has not played since winning in Vina del Mar in early February due to an abdominal injury. Sela hasn’t done much in 2008, but he did enjoy great success on the Challenger circuit late last year. A bit of revenge will be on the line in this contest, as Sela stunned Gonzalez in the Davis Cup World Group Playoffs last September. Sela’s win clinched the tie for Israel and that victory came after he had already defeated Nicolas Massu on the first day of singles matches. Gonzalez has always been a player who can both beat anyone and lose to anyone on any given day, and considering his recent injury issues, it very well could be the latter in Las Vegas.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Michael Llodra (two titles already in 2008), Robin Soderling (completely on fire since returning from injury), Robby Ginepri (see above).
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Xavier Malisse (two straight first-round exits), Ernests Gulbis (1-4 match record this season plus injury problems), Nicolas Massu (four first-round losses in 2008), Guillermo Canas (injury problems), Nicolas Kiefer (has played just two matches this year), Benjamin Becker (humiliated 6-1, 6-0 by Steve Darcis in Memphis), Marat Safin (1-2 match record this season).
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Marcos Baghdatis over Michael Llodra and Lleyton Hewitt over Guillermo Canas.
  
  Final Prediction: Marcos Baghdatis over Lleyton Hewitt
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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