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2010-02-08 05:19:01
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The streak of 12 ATP tournaments in four weeks continues in Rotterdam, San Jose, and Costa do Sauipe. Unlike last week, however, this time the big boys are back. Well, not as many as expected, but four of the Top 10.
2009 Rotterdam finalists Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are not returning and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is on the mend, but Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, and Robin Soderling are all on hand at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament. Andy Roddick leads the way in San Jose, which boasts a relatively strong field considering it’s only a 250-point event. Also in action this week are Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils, Radek Stepanek, Tommy Haas, and Juan Carlos Ferrero,
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: 1,445,000 Euros
Points: 500
Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending Champion: Andy Murray (not playing)
Draw Analysis: This year’s tournament is not as strong as it could have been, but it still boasts a respectable field. World No. 4 and 2009 Rotterdam runner-up Nadal is out with a knee injury and Tsonga recently withdrew due to an abdominal strain. Reigning champion Murray is also out, opting not to defend his title.
Leading the way, therefore, are Djokovic and Davydenko. Djokovic is joined in the top half of the bracket by fellow seeds Gael Monfils, Mikhail Youzhny, and Tommy Robredo. That trio is not especially dangerous on indoor hard courts, although Monfils took Djokovic to a third-set tiebreaker in the Paris final and Youzhny could pose problems if he is healthy. Janko Tipsarevic, Evgeny Korolev, and 2008 Rotterdam champ Michael Llodra are the unseeded threats in this section of the draw.
The bottom half appears far more formidable. Davydenko has a brutal path to the final, at least in the very early stages of the tournament. Up first for the No. 2 seed is Johannesburg champion Feliciano Lopez and if Davydenko can get past the Spaniard, he will face either James Blake or Marcos Baghdatis. A semifinal showdown between familiar foes Davydenko and Soderling could be on tap for the weekend.
First-Round Upset Alert: Jurgen Melzer over (8) Viktor Troicki. Melzer, a star on indoor hard courts, is coming off a semifinal showing in Zagreb. Troicki is an all-court player who can do just fine indoors, but he has been slumping ever since sustaining a foot injury last summer and he fell to unheralded Michael Berrer in Zagreb. Melzer, who just barely missed out on being seeded in Rotterdam, should actually be considered the favorite in this match.
Upset chances are plentiful throughout the bottom half of the draw. In addition to Melzer-Troicki, Davydenko has a tough test in fast-court specialist Lopez, Soderling—who plays Florent Serra—has been dealing with an elbow problem, and Ljubicic has no gimmie against Julien Benneteau.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko, Thiemo De Bakker, Evgeny Korolev, Michael Berrer, Feliciano Lopez
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Robin Soderling, Viktor Troicki, Robin Haase, Mischa Zverev, Andreas Seppi, James Blake
Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Evgeny Korolev and Nikolay Davydenko over Ivan Ljubicic
Final Prediction: Davydenko over Djokovic
SAP Open
Where: San Jose, California
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: $531,000
Points: 250
Top Seed: Andy Roddick
Defending Champion: Radek Stepanek
Draw Analysis: Even though Rotterdam features three Top 10 players, it’s not entirely top-heavy because the field is impressively deep. In San Jose, however, there are a couple of standouts and then there’s a considerable drop-off.
Roddick headlines the field as the No. 1 seed, but the top half of the draw is clearly more difficult so the American will have to be on top of his game if he wants to go one step further than last year and reach the final. Roddick should have little trouble in rounds one a two, but he could run into Tomas Berdych in the quarters before a potential semifinal rematch against defending champion Radek Stepanek.
Fernando Verdasco is a big favorite in the bottom half of the draw, especially since new American citizen Tommy Haas has been dealing with both injuries and illness in recent weeks and months. Nobody in Verdasco’s quarter of the bracket is playing well right now, so the second-seeded Spaniard should breeze into a possible semifinal against either Haas or Philipp Kohlschreiber.
First-Round Upset Alert: Rajeev Ram over (6) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Quite frankly, the seeded players have relatively simple first-round draws, so there is not a whole lot of upset potential. Kohlshreiber, however, could have his hands full with Ram. The German is an all-court player, but he would probably prefer something slower than indoor hard courts. Ram thrives on fast surfaces and fast surfaces only.
The American had a long trip from Johannesburg to San Jose over the weekend, but if he gets a few days to recover, he will have a chance. Ram should at least be competitive if he makes a high percentage of first serves.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Roddick, Michael Russell
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Jeremy Chardy, Ernests Gulbis, Xavier Malisse, Mardy Fish, Teimuraz Gabashvili, Robby Ginepri
Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over Radek Stepanek and Fernando Verdasco over Philipp Kohlschreiber
Final Prediction: Roddick over Verdasco
Brasil Open
Where: Costa do Sauipe, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $442,500
Points: 250
Top Seed: Juan Carlos Ferrero
Defending Champion: Tommy Robredo (not playing)
Draw Analysis: Juan Carlos Ferrero may be the No. 1 seed, but the draw certainly did not do him any favors. Both Thomaz Bellucci and Richard Gasquet are technically “under-seeded” (Gasquet’s relatively low ranking is due to a brief suspension and Bellucci is a clay-court master who just won a title in Santiago) and both are in the top half of the bracket; Ferrero could meet Gasquet as early in the quarters and Bellucci will almost certainly be waiting for one or the other in the semis.
The bottom half should be completely wide open, with a host of contenders but no overwhelming standouts. Second-seeded Albert Montanes is the No. 2 seed and he has been in fine form of late, but he is in a crowded fourth quarter. Marcel Granollers, Lukasz Kubot, and seventh-seeded Horacio Zeballos are all dangerous, especially on the slow stuff.
Whoever emerges out of the bottom section could meet either Igor Andreev or Pablo Cuevas in the semis. Cuevas does by far his best work on the dirt, while Andreev has emerged from being a clay-court specialist to become a capable all-court player. Still, his best surface is clay and that should help him get out of a recent slump.
First-Round Upset Alert: (SE) Joao Souza vs. (5) Victor Hanescu. Hanescu has been in dismal form ever since last summer, but he has to be feeling good about getting back on the clay. Don’t be fooled by his 6’6’’ size; this Romanian can almost be classified as a clay-court specialist. Still, Souza is coming off a semifinal performance in Santiago (thus he got a special exemption into this event and did not need his wild card) and he will have the Brazilian crowd squarely in his corner.
There are plenty of other upset possibilities as well. Granollers owns a clay-court ATP title (2008 Houston) and he should test Zeballos, while Starace can get hot at any moment on the slow stuff and could surprise Andreev if the Russian can’t regain the form that was on display against Roger Federer for three sets at the Australian Open.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Thomaz Bellucci, Peter Luczak, Joao Souza, Lukasz Kubot
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Igor Andreev, Victor Hanescu, Eduardo Schwank, Nicolas Massu, Potito Starace, Oscar Hernandez
Semifinal Predictions: Thomaz Bellucci over Richard Gasquet and Albert Montanes over Frederico Gil
Final Prediction: Bellucci over Montanes
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Comment | 4 comments
2010-01-31 23:07:01
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The Australian Open is over, but the 2010 season is just getting started. Twelve ATP tournaments are on the schedule over the next four weeks, and it all begins on Monday in Zagreb, Santiago, and Johannesburg. Marin Cilic—the only Top 10 player in action—leads the way in Zagreb, while Fernando Gonzalez and Gael Monfils are the top seeds in Santiago and Johannesburg, respectively.
PBZ Zagreb Indoors
Where: Zagreb, Croatia
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Marin Cilic
Defending Champion: Marin Cilic
Draw Analysis: Cilic, who successfully defended his Chennai title earlier this season, will be looking to do the same in Zagreb. Already boasting a 10-1 match record on the year, Cilic is the overwhelming favorite to prevail once again. The 6’6’’ Croat will certainly have the crowd behind him on his way to the final, a path that begins against Jan Hajek and could include countryman Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals.
Fellow Croat Ivan Ljubicic is the No. 2 seed and is part of a wide open bottom half of the draw. Looking to challenge Ljubicic for a spot in the final will be Viktor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic. Those two Serbs are on a collision course for what would be a tough quarterfinal matchup.
First-Round Upset Alert: Arnaud Clement over (2) Ivan Ljubicic. Both players lost early in Melbourne (Clement in the first round to James Blake, Ljubicic in the third round to Karlovic), but Clement still has to be feeling good about his recent runner-up performance in Auckland, where he held a championship point before losing to John Isner. Ljubicic will have home-court advantage, but Clement is a scrappy defender who can trouble big servers with his rock-solid return.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Marin Cilic, Janko Tipsarevic, Ivo Karlovic, Evgeny Korolev, Arnaud Clement, Lukas Lacko
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Viktor Troicki, Benjamin Becker, Igor Kunitsyn, Simone Bolelli, Mischa Zverev, Philipp Petzschner
Semifinal Predictions: Marin Cilic over Evgeny Korolev and Janko Tipsarevic over Ivan Ljubicic
Final Prediction: Cilic over Tipsarevic
Movistar Open
Where: Santiago, Chile
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $398,250
Points: 250
Top Seed: Fernando Gonzalez
Defending Champion: Fernando Gonzalez
Draw Analysis: Gonzalez, who has won this title two straight times and four times overall, is naturally the overwhelming favorite to lift the winner’s trophy once again. Any player who landed on Gonzo’s half of the draw cannot be happy. Oscar Hernandez drew the worst luck and will play Gonzalez in the opening round. The Chilean’s road to the final could include Horacio Zeballos in the quarters and dangerous clay-courter Thomaz Bellucci in the semis.
The bottom section is only slightly more open. Juan Monaco, seeded second, is playing well and is an absolute force on clay. Furthermore, the other seeds in that half (Simon Greul, Pablo Cuevas, and Potito Starace) all look far from imposing at the moment. As long as Monaco can get past Chilean veteran Nicolas Massu in his opener, the Argentine should be in the relative clear.
First-Round Upset Alert: Peter Luczak over (8) Potito Starace. Luczak is not a clay-court specialist, but his heavy topspin forehand should work well on the surface. Plus, the Australian has enjoyed a strong start to the season. He fared well in Sydney before giving Rafael Nadal a decent test in the first round of the Aussie Open. Starace clearly has an edge being able to play this match on the slow stuff, but Luczak has a good shot at taking out the No. 8 seed.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Fernando Gonzalez, Thomaz Bellucci, Lukasz Kubot
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jose Acasuso, Paul Capdeville, Ricardo Mello, Nicolas Massu
Semifinal Predictions: Fernando Gonzalez over Thomaz Bellucci and Juan Monaco over Simon Greul
Final Prediction: Gonzalez over Monaco
SA Tennis Open
Where: Johannesburg, South Africa
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $442,500
Points: 250
Top Seed: Gael Monfils
Defending Champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (not playing)
Draw Analysis: Johannesburg is the lone tournament this week without an obvious favorite. A final between the two biggest names—Gael Monfils and David Ferrer—would probably be a toss-up. Of course, there is no guarantee of a Monfils-Ferrer title match. The top-seeded Frenchman is coming off a third-round loss to Isner in Melbourne and his health is always a question mark. He could be tested in the top half of the draw by Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez.
Ferrer is an all-court player, but he generally prefers clay over hard courts. As a result, he could be tested by fellow Spaniard Ivan Navarro (who, believe it or not, serves and volleys) in round two. Ferrer’s road to a potential final could also feature Xavier Malisse in the quarterfinals and an in-form Marco Chiudinell in the semis.
First-Round Upset Alert: Jarkko Nieminen over (7) Yen-Hsun Lu. Nieminen is actually the favorite in this match, but injury after injury has left him below Lu in the ATP rankings. Lu, meanwhile, is in a dismal slump and Nieminen is not the guy you want to play when you are struggling. The Finn is simply too solid from the baseline.
Also keep an eye on Somdev Devvarman vs. (6) Xavier Malisse and (WC) Rik De Voest vs. (5) Rajeev Ram.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Marco Chiudinelli, Stephane Robert
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Xavier Malisse, Yen-Hsun Lu, Dominik Hrbaty, Steve Darcis, Karol Beck
Semifinal Predictions: Gael Monfils over Feliciano Lopez and David Ferrer over Marco Chiudinelli
Final Prediction: Ferrer over Monfils
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Comment | 2 comments
2010-01-31 04:10:40
Ricky and Cheryl will be live blogging while watching the 2010 Australian Open men’s singles final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Follow along and post your own comments!
GAME SET MATCH FEDERER! - on a pitiful error off the Murray racket.
Tiebreak Federer 10-9: Both men playing conservative tennis, many groundstrokes landing mid-court as they wait for the other man to make an error. With championship point, Federer played an ill-advised drop shot, which Murray got to and sent pass the Swiss.
Tiebreak Federer 8-7: Murray just missed a volley on set point, setting up CHAMPIONSHIP POINT for Federer, but the Swiss missed a missing shot by an inch.
Tiebreak Murray 5-4: Federer reeled off 3 points in a row, but a gutsy second serve from Murray stopped the bloodletting. An ace from the Scot sends it back to Federer.
Tiebreak Murray 3-2: Murray gets the first mini-break on a horrible error from Federer, but at 3-1, the Scot gave the break right back.
Federer 6-3, 6-4, 5-6: Another sloppy game from both players. Murray allowed Federer to get to deuce, but the Scot finally scraped the hold with an ace (which he had to challenge to get).
Federer 6-3, 6-4, 5-5: An ugly game from both players. Murray overhit a volley that should have been a winner, and Federer tried a horrible drop shot to keep Murray in the game. The Swiss closes out with an ace to hold though.
Federer 6-3, 6-4, 4-5: BREAK! Murray serving for the set, Federer sends a screaming return winner past Murray to earn a break point, but the Scot gets out of trouble with a big first serve. Federer caught Murray at the net at deuce and another error from the Scot gives Federer the break right back again.
Federer 6-3, 6-4, 2-3: BREAK! Murray earns a fist-full of break points at 0-40 off a few Federer errors. The Swiss erased the first two, but Murray FINALLY breaks serve with a snappy little exchange at net.
Federer 6-3, 6-4, 2-2: Murray had a chance to break Federer in the Swiss's first service game of the set, but he couldn't convert. A couple of backhand errors from Federer have allowed Murray to get back in the fifth game of the set. A missed return gives Murray the hold
Federer 6-3, 6-4: Yet another extremely routine service hold for Federer and he leads two sets to love. This one is all over, folks.
Federer 6-3, 5-4: Murray is doing nothing against the Federer serve, but he is at least staying within striking distance by holding. Still, if he does not break now it could be all over.
Federer 6-3, 4-3: Federer surived a tough service game to prevent Murray from maintaining any kind of momentum. Then the Swiss had a real chance to put the set (and the match?) away in the next game, but he missed four break-point chances. Unfortunately for Murray, his only momentum is coming from ridiculously hard service holds that just barely manage to keep him on life support. He needs to come up with something special on return and he needs to do it now.
Federer 6-3, 3-2: Down two break points at 1-3, Murray was just about to completely lose the plot. But he won four straight points to hold; if Murray somehow comes back to win this--which he is showing few signs of doing--then you can look back on that service game and say it's what saved him. Some "come on"s are also materializing. Still, Federer appears to be getting better and better as this match goes on.
Federer 6-3, 2-1: Federer just broke at love. If Murray does not get it together and break back soon, Federer could steamroll. Whether he wants to or not, the Scot NEEDS to start going for his shots. Federer is just feasting on short balls right now and blasting winners all over the place with his forehand.
Federer 6-3, 0-1: Critical hold for Murray, especially after Federer blasted a winner on the first point of the second set and could have gotten on a roll. Early stages of this set are HUGE for Murray.
Federer 6-3: Federer gets the break...and the set. Some great aggressive play by the world No. 1, which he was able to do in part thanks to dismal serving by Murray. Murray needs to pick up the pace both on serve and from the baseline if he is going to get back in the match.
Federer 4-3: Two easy holds. Murray is back in passive mode, and while it's working some of the time, it's not going to work most of the time. Federer has been coming in and dictating.
Federer 3-2: Both players held; Murray easily, while Federer saved two break points. Not a surprising match so far--brilliant shots at time but also plenty of errors, presumably due to nerves. Also Murray is playing better in general, but Federer is playing better on the big points. Not unexpected.
Federer 2-1: Federer broke serve easily thanks to great tennis by him and passive play by Murray, but Murray got it back immediately with an absolutely incredible return game. One backhand pass even drew applause from Federer, which almost never happens. This match is already on fire.
Federer 1-0: Murray won the first two points of the match, but Federer won five of the next six and held serve. It's Murray who is slightly more aggressive than usual, at least after one game.
---------------------------
Just about ready for Roger Federer and Andy Murray to square off for the 2010 Australian Open title. Let's take a look at how they got here:
Federer
d. Igor Andreev 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(2), 6-0
d. Victor Hanescu 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
d. Albert Montanes 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
d. Lleyton Hewitt 6-2, 6-3, 6-4
d. Nikolay Davydenko 2-6, 6-3, 6-0, 7-5
d. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
Murray
d. Kevin Anderson 6-1, 6-1, 6-2
d. Marc Gicquel 6-1, 6-4, 6-3
d. Florent Serra 7-5, 6-1, 6-4
d. John Isner 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-2
d. Rafael Nadal 6-3, 7-6(2), 3-0, retired
d. Marin Cilic 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
Federer and Murray have met on 10 previous occasions, with Murray leading the head-to-head series 6-4.
2005 Bangkok final: Federer 6-3, 7-5
2006 Cincinnati Masters 2nd round: Murray 7-5, 6-4
2008 Dubai 1st round: Murray 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-4
2008 U.S. Open final: Federer 6-2, 7-5, 6-2
2008 Madrid Masters semifinals: Murray 3-6, 6-3, 7-5
2008 Masters Cup round robin: Murray 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5
2009 Doha semifinals: Murray 6-7(6), 6-2, 6-2
2009 Indian Wells semifinals: Murray 6-3, 4-6, 6-1
2009 Cincinnati Masters semifinals: Federer 6-2, 7-6(8)
2009 World Tour Finals semifinals: Federer 3-6, 6-3, 6-1
Comment | 171 comments
Mon 08/02 05:19
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Davydenko return in Rotterdam
Sun 31/01 23:07
Approach Shots: Australian Open ends, wild February begins
Sun 31/01 04:10
Live blog of the Australian Open final: Federer vs. Murray
Fri 29/01 20:40
Australian Open final: Federer vs. Murray - Expert Picks
Thu 28/01 18:39
Match of the Day: Federer vs. Tsonga - Expert Picks
Wed 27/01 18:36
Match of the Day: Murray vs. Cilic - Expert Picks
Tue 26/01 20:32
Wednesday Matches of the Day, Expert Picks
Tue 26/01 04:07
Nadal vs. Murray in Australian Open quarters - Live Blog
Mon 25/01 18:40
Tuesday Matches of the Day, Expert Picks
Sun 24/01 19:52
Monday Matches of the Day - Expert Picks
Sat 23/01 17:40
Sunday Matches of the Day - Expert Picks
Fri 22/01 19:42
Saturday Matches of the Day - Expert Picks
Thu 21/01 19:42
Friday Matches of the Day - Expert Picks
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Thursday Matches of the Day - Expert Picks
Tue 19/01 19:54
Wednesday Matches of the Day - Expert Picks
View all posts
croc, Feb 8, 2010 9:45 PM
RickyDimon, Feb 8, 2010 6:41 PM
sals3, Feb 8, 2010 4:04 PM
Kelli, Feb 8, 2010 12:40 AM
afrodite7, Feb 7, 2010 10:58 PM
carrie, Feb 9, 2010 9:58 AM
RickyDimon, Feb 8, 2010 7:35 PM
fedexfan, Feb 7, 2010 11:27 AM
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