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2012-01-30 19:22:01
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal get a much-needed break (likely for a whole month) after an absolutely epic Australian Open final that lasted five hours and 53 minutes. Heck, even the fans probably need a break after that one.
But they don’t get one…. A jam-packed February slate begins this week with tournaments in Zagreb, Montpellier, and Vina del Mar. Tomas Berdych is the only Top 10 player in action, but Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, and Richard Gasquet are also taking the court in Montpellier. Clay-court specialists begin one of their favorite months of the season in Vina del Mar, while Ivan Dodig is defending a surprise title in Zagreb.
PBZ Zagreb Indoors
Where: Zagreb, Croatia
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 398,250 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Ivan Ljubicic
Defending champion: Ivan Dodig
Draw analysis: The Zagreb title is wide open, just as it was last year when Dodig thrilled the crowd with a surprise run to his first ATP winner’s trophy. Croatia boasts three of the eight seeds this time, including the defending champ (No. 4) plus top-seeded Ivan Ljubicic and big-serving Ivo Karlovic (No. 8). Ljubicic and Karlovic are on a collision course for the semifinals in a tough top half of the draw, but Philipp Petzschner, Mikhail Youzhny, and/or Andreas Seppi could derail their progress.
Alex Bogomolov and Marcos Baghdatis, both of whom are in decent form to begin 2012, have to be favored to reach the semis in a weaker bottom section. Bogomolov will likely have to get past Lukas Lacko in round two and Robin Haase in the quarterfinals. Baghdatis should not have any trouble until a potential quarterfinal clash against Dodig.
First-round upset alert: Sergiy Stakhovsky over (3) Mikhail Youzhny. The long-time doubles partners (although not this week) have the misfortune of playing each other in a first-round match for the third time in their careers. Youzhny is a clear favorite on paper, but both players have been struggling of late so it could go either way. The Russian leads their series 2-1 after alternating wins in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Youzhny scored a 6-3, 7-6(7) victory last fall in St. Petersburg, but he won’t have home-court advantage this time around.
Hot: Alex Bogomolov, Lukas Lacko
Cold: Ivan Ljubicic, Mikhail Youzhny, Karol Beck, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Potito Starace
Semifinal predictions: Mikhail Youzhny over Philipp Petzschner and Marcos Baghdatis over Alex Bogomolov
Final: Baghdatis over Youzhny
Open Sud de France
Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Tomas Berdych
Defending champion: Gael Monfils
Draw analysis: The Open Sud de France was last held in Lyon in 2010. It was taken off the schedule last year and has since moved to Montpellier, where Monfils—the 2010 champion—is back to defend his title. Monfils won’t have an easy time of it in a bottom half with three other very strong seeds (Gilles Simon, Feliciano Lopez, and Jarkko Nieminen). Simon is struggling at the moment, but Lopez reached the fourth round of the Australian Open and Nieminen recently captured the Sydney title.
Joining a trio of Frenchman (Monfils, Simon, and Richard Gasquet) with a first-round bye is No. 1 seed Tomas Berdych. The seventh-ranked Czech is in a soft top quarter of the bracket and will likely cruise into the semis following his quarterfinal run in Melbourne. If he does, his opponent will come from a deep second section that includes Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Olivier Rochus, and Nikolay Davydenko. Gasquet faces a potential opener against Davydenko.
First-round upset alert: Olivier Rochus over (7) Philipp Kohlschreiber. This a rematch of an Auckland semifinal clash from earlier this season. Rochus put up an admirable fight against the former Auckland champion and prevailed 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-4. The Belgian may be able to do it again because he is actually a stellar performer on indoor hards. Rochus has three career ATP runner-up finishes indoors, including in Stockholm in 2009. Overall, the head-to-head series between Rochus and Kohlschreiber is tied up at two apiece.
Hot: Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, Feliciano Lopez, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jarkko Nieminen, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, Olivier Rochus
Cold: Gilles Simon, Nikolay Davydenko, Paul-Henri Mathieu
Semifinal predictions: Tomas Berdych over Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils over Feliciano Lopez
Final: Monfils over Berdych
VTR Open
Where: Vina del Mar, Chile
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $398,250
Points: 250
Top seed: Juan Monaco
2011 champion: Tommy Robredo (not playing)
Draw analysis: This is the time of year when second-tier clay-court players get to rack up ranking points on the South American and Central American dirt. Two of the top contenders this week are in the bottom half of the Vina del Mar draw. No. 2 seed Juan Ignacio Chela is in a brutal lower quarter along with Filippo Volandri, Horacio Zeballos, and Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a wild card both literally and figuratively in this event. If he is close to 100 percent (and that’s a big “if”), he could do some damage. No. 3 seed Thomaz Bellucci should have far less trouble in his section.
Top-seeded Juan Monaco also has a friendlier path at the top of the bracket, where his nearest competitors are Igor Andreev and Albert Montanes. Both Andreev and Montanes are slumping, so Monaco should eventually find himself in the semifinals. No. 6 seed Santiago is playing the best tennis of anyone in the second section, but unseeded Frederico Gil is coming off a surprise third-round appearance in Melbourne and now he is back on his surface of choice.
First-round upset alert: Daniel Gimeno-Traver over (7) Carlos Berlocq. No disrespect to Berlocq, but anytime he is seed it’s an upset opportunity. The Argentine is in respectable form right now, as he has two match victories this season (two more than Gimeno-Traver). But one came via retirement and he got a nice draw for the other one, beating Jesse Huta Galung in round one of the Australian Open. Berlocq has won both previous meetings with the Spaniard (both on clay), but one went to a third-set tiebreaker.
Hot: Juan Ignacio Chela, Santiago Giraldo, Frederico Gil
Cold: Albert Montanes, Filippo Volandri, Fernando Gonzalez, Nicolas Massu, Leonardo Mayer, Horacio Zeballos
Semifinal predictions: Santiago Giraldo over Juan Monaco and Thomaz Bellucci over Juan Ignacio Chela
Final: Bellucci over Giraldo
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Comment | 5 comments
2012-01-28 15:11:02
Expert picks are back for yet another Grand Slam final between the top two players in the world, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. The Tennistalk panel has weighed in along with a few guest experts as they predict who will triumph at the Australian Open. Join the fun and make your own picks in the comments section!
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky "Nostradamus" Dimon: I had this final from the start with Djokovic winning in four, but now we seem destined for a five-setter. Nadal has erased questions about his knee and his Doha loss to Gael Monfils by playing stellar tennis throughout his trip to the title match. The Spaniard has dropped sets in only two of his matches (against Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer) and in each of those he stormed back to win in four. Djokovic is playing well, but he is not quite as on fire as when he beat Nadal on clay or at Wimbledon or at the U.S. Open. The world No. 1 is also coming off a four-hour and 50-minute thriller against Andy Murray with one fewer day of rest than his opponent. That should not end up being a determining factor in the final result, but it will at least help Nadal's confidence. The relatively slow surface will help the underdog turn this into a grinding war of attrition. I feel like Nadal will channel his inner Robin Soderling and announce to the world that "nobody beats Rafael Nadal seven times in a row." Nadal 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3.
Cheryl "Still Without a Slam" Murray: It looks like we're destined to have Nole and Rafa in every final these days. This is VERY good news for Djokovic and very bad news for Nadal. I don't think the actual tennis matchup is a problem for Rafa, except that Nole has that fantastic return and Rafa's serving can be weak. Otherwise, I think this is more a mental thing. Rafa's confidence is rattled when it comes to playing Djokovic, and it's hard to imagine that this fact has changed since the off-season. The one upside for Nadal is that he's playing better now than he was at the U.S. Open, and Djokovic is perhaps a shade less so. The Serb was having breathing trouble this week and he looked pretty awful in the second set against Murray. But this is Rafa, against whom Djokovic is supremely confident. Djokovic 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2.
atul "all I do is pick winners" 1985: This is the third consecutive slam final between the two, something not even the legendary Fed-Nadal rivalry has managed to provide to the tennis world. Djokovic is the usual dominant player that he was in 2011, albeit with some vulnerabilities. Nadal, on the other hand, is playing his best tennis in over a year. There is some visible difference in his game and that spark in his eyes that was missing in 2011. Given what transpired in 2009, all talk of Djokovic being exhausted for the final does not hold true. Expect a fully fit Djokovic to take on a fully fit Nadal with Rafa avenging his 2011 losses and claiming his 11th Grand Slam title. Nadal 6-4, 7-5, 2-6, 7-6(5).
chlorostoma: If this final was taking place 12 months ago I would favor Rafa for a hard-fought win. Since then, however, Novak's game has solidified into one that is hard for anyone to break down on most days and of course Rafa has the challenge of overcoming the six straight losses against Novak in 2011. Novak has not been as convincing as we expected him to be this tournament, but he plays like someone who has won under all different circumstances last year; he knows that no matter how the match is going he will almost certainly prevail; the very experience Murray and Rafa are lacking against Novak these days. I expect a rousing speech from Toni and Rafa refusing to repeat the way he was defeated by Novak last year, Novak for the win in five. Djokovic 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
natashao: I will never forget that hot night in June 2011 when I dreamed about Rafa losing his Wimbledon finals to Nole and it was when Rafa was just about to play his first-round match.... Six months later, on a cold winter night, I dream about Rafa again...this time he bites the AO trophy. People say you dream about your wishes or you dream about your worst fears; like Martin Luther King I decide to trust my dreams.Rafa is playing his A-game again. His mental strength is gradually coming back, his first-serve percentage is high, and his shots are landing deeper than in 2011, although he still mixes it up with short ones to affect the rhythm of his opponents. Nole’s level, on the other hand, is a bit lower than it was in 2011. He has been way too much broken in this AO by his standards. He failed to serve out the match in the fifth set in the semis and had to get it the harder way. This is expected to go in Nole’s favor, but not this time. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4.
Comment | 56 comments
2012-01-25 19:57:52
Expert picks are back for arguably the most-anticipated semifinal lineup in Grand Slam history. Not only is it the the Big 4, but also each one of the Big 4 is positively on fire. Who will be the last two left standing? Make your own picks in the comments section and try to beat the experts to guest-pick Sunday's title match.
(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (3) Roger Federer
Ricky "Tikki Tavi" Dimon: There are not many things I enjoy more than analyzing Nadal-Federer matchups, but for the sake of space and common sense I'll try to be brief. They have played each other 26 times (in official ATP matches) so there are no secrets out there. We don't need to analyze Nadal's spin serve to the Fed backhand or his heavy topspin high to Fed's one-hander, or Fed's service percentage to induce Nadal into short moonball returns or Fed's stepping into the court and pushing Nadal 20 feet behind the baseline like Spaniard. The bottom line here is hard facts. Federer wins on lightning-fast surfaces. Nadal wins on everything else. And this classifies as "everything else." In fact, this might as well be blue clay. FREDERICO GIL reached the third round. Kei Nishikori beat TSONGA. SARA ERRANI reached the quarterfinals of the women's event and won EIGHT games off PETRA KVITOVA. Yes, look no further than FREDERICO GIL and SARA ERRANI as to why Nadal will win this match. Plus, in a close contest (which this will surely be) the edge almost always goes to the Spaniard. Nadal 3-6, 7-5, 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-4.
"Sonny and" Cheryl Murray: This is THE rivalry. The one that keeps tennis going, the one that everyone wants to see the moment these two men compete in the same tournament. Federer has beaten Nadal at a Slam before, but only at Wimbledon and only twice. Nadal owns a 7-2 advantage over the Swiss champion at the majors, including an epic five-set win over Federer at the Australian Open back in 2009. Both men are playing amazing tennis, with Federer completely dismantling Juan Martin Del Potro and Nadal returning serve in the fourth set against Tomas Berdych in a way I have never ever seen him do before. Federer has a better shot at the Australian Open than he does at the French, but the matchup with Rafa is still a problem. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(8), 5-7, 8-6.
atul1985: This is what everyone wanted since the draw was revealed. Fed and Rafa will write the 27th chapter of their storied rivalry. Fed is in great form and has just demolished an inform and potentially dangerous opponent, Del Potro. Rafa on the other hand has looked solid and had to really dig deep to thwart the challenge of Berdych. This is a very similar backdrop to their 2009 Australian final and I expect the result to be no different. Nadal 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Andy Murray
Ricky: The question, of course, is what--if anything--has changed since last year when Djokovic humiliated Murray for the title. Murray is much-improved, but so is Djokovic. Ivan Lendl? Maybe that's a difference, but the sample size is too small. What will definitely help Murray is that this is a semifinal instead of a final. The Scot has proven that he can handle Grand Slam semis while he simply cannot handle Grand Slam finals. Still, he is going to need some help from an on-fire opponent in order to get all the way over the hump. If Djokovic's hamstring is not 100 percent, Murray has a great chance. If not, another win for Djoker--albeit a much more competitive one--is in the cards. Djokovic 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2.
Cheryl: This half of the dream semifinal is almost as compelling as the other. Novak Djokovic will go into this match as the obvious favorite, since he's the holder of three Grand Slams...but Murray has the game to challenge him. I think it is actually to Murray's benefit that this is a semifinal and not a final. I still expect Djokovic to win, but Murray can make a serious case for himself if he doesn't slip into passive tennis. Djokovic 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-2.
atul1985: A rematch of last year's final, this one promises to be a completely different affair as far as the intensity of the play is concerned. Andy was one of the few players to beat Djokovic last year although it came through a retirement. He also came close to beating him in the Rome SFs. Expect this to be much like the Rome semis, with multiple 20+ stroke rallies. Both players are supreme defenders, however Djokovic's superior attacking game should see him through at the end. Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4.
Comment | 82 comments
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