Tell me your first paragraph is just literary hyperbole...

A Rafa exit in the round of 16 likely??

I agree with most everything else you said, but did you really think that mediocre (for his standards) performances at two warm-up tourneys holds more weight than the following factors??
-2 Semis at the USO in a row
-Winner of the last 2 majors
-#1 ranking way above Fed
-Dominant in clay and grass
-Rested and healthy (finally!)
-A great hard court record (maybe not impressive compared to his clay record, but great HC record nonetheless)
-A history of performing at Majors
-He is Rafael Nadal! Nuff said!

So exciting ...

I love the slams for just this reason ... the best players bring the goods and the tournament has a life of its own that can completely change from the first week to the second.

And the point remains.........................never dismiss an inform and healthy Rafa on ANY surface!!!

Last nite with Rafa's performance, he must have sent tremors through the locker room.........................registering 9.9 on the Richter scale!!

VAMOS!!!!!!!!!!

smr, well put. Majors may only give 2x the points of a Masters, but compared in terms of prestige and historical significance 10x is not even close. There's just NO comparison. That's why players would much rather win a Major than be #1

If you had told me 2 weeks ago that Rafael Nadal would be THE in-form player of the 2010 US Open thus far, I?d have laughed at you.


Yes cheryl, I told you that he was a serious contender, not in so many words, and you laughed at me

The US Open is supposed to be his worst slam. Right? I said that was wrong as well.


I never thought that Rafa wouldn't perform well here. Most of the time he's lost at the USO there were reasons for it, not all of the time, but even Ferrer accepted that he was injured when he beat him, Murray caught him when he was on his last legs, and Delpo caught him when he was injured and emotionally drained.

Rafa has been playing too well this year for his form to just drop off just like that, and I never bought the not good on hard court accusation.

Remember that form is temporary, class is permanent. Rafa is one classy tennis player.

still 2 matches to win for both of them b4 they play in the finals....the final for me is very very far away at the moment...

Cheryl, I just could not understand where you were coming from with your predictions, I made exactly the same point that grafight made above that you were not giving him credit for all he has achieved, and you couldn't see what that had to do with the USO.

Let's wait for the tournament to emerge, we have to take itone match at a time.

VAMOS RAFA!

grafight - no I really didn't think Rafa would lose in the round of 16. Even playing hurt and in bad form, he can do better than that. :)

Nadline - once again I will explain that my relatively low expectations (I think I picked him to lose in the semis) have NOTHING to do with not giving him credit for what he achieved. The fact is that he played terrible tennis in Toronto and Cincy. And he's never performed well at the US Open. Ever. Those two things lead me to believe that he would have his customary difficulties in new York.

Hi Cheryl, whilst I understand your initial feelings, I too had doubts after Cincinatti but a round 16 exit?? Surely that's a bit of a stretch. The first indication of that not happening was the draw, (Soderling, Clilc , Davydenko all on the other side of the draw) Second and most important, look at last year. Coming off losing his coveted French Open title, not being able to defend Wimbledon, losing world No1 status, suffering tendinitis and abdominal strains and going through his parents divorce.. he still reached the semis at US Open for the 2nd straight year. Logic only follows that after regaining his health, confidence then French Open, Wimbledon and World No1 ranking, it was very likely that he would reach this stage at the very least. Agreed though that we all need another 'dream' Nadal-Federer final and I will give you extra points for the 'inner Goran' comment...

"""Who could have guessed that Nadal would suddenly turn into Goran Ivanisevic? ....I might even go so far as to say that he?s never played this way before period. ""
_____________

I'm a Nadal fan, and (obviously) don't want to spoil the party. However the above 2 statements make NO sense to me whatsoever.

Sure Nadal is playing better than he did in Cincy and Toronto, but I don't think Nadal is playing his best EVER tennis. For one thing, he's nowhere close to his 2008 form, when he couldn't be bothered until the final. Actually, I thought he played much better in Wimbledon 2010 than he is now.

Breaking down Nadal's game -

Serve: There's a lot of hype around Nadal's serve this tournament. That's because he's clocked a peak serve of 135 mph (and b/w 130 and 135 several times). Let's look at the serve stats:

For first four rounds at the UsOpen -

Nadal's average 1st serve speed: 117-120 mph (it was 118 mph yesterday)
Avarage 2nd serve speed: 86-89 mph ( it was 88 mph yesterday)
1st Serve percentage: 57% to 63% (Average around 60%)

Wimbledon 2010 QF, SF and Final:

Nadal's average 1st serve speed: 115-117 mph
Nadal's average 2nd serve speed: 93- 95 mph (it was 93 MPH in both the SF/F)
Nadal's first serve percentage: 69-70% ( Avg 70%).

So overall, Nadal has gained 1-2 mph on AVERAGE first serve (even though his peak serve is higher). LOST almost 5 mph on average 2nd serve. And his percentage of 1st serves - has suffered by at least 5-7%.

It's SIMPLE. He's just going a little more for his first serve. It has helped him in peak speed, NOT a whole lot in average speed. And obviously, if you serve harder, your percentage suffers. The 2nd serve speed drop is also disconcerting.

Based on this, I would actually think that Nadal was serving BETTER in Wimbledon than he is over here (even considering the fact that Nadal's serve is way more effective on grass). I'm in the school of thought that a harder, flatter and LESS consistent serve, even though it's pacier, will actually HURT Nadal against the best returners in the game. (since it was always his spin, not the pace, which made his serve a weapon).

Furthermore, I think Nadal will definitely play better as the tournament progresses. He is not hitting THROUGH his backhand as much as he was doing in the summer. His ROS is also relatively poor(it's always bad on hardcourts, so no surprise). So, Right now he's vulnerable to a top hardcourt player (Fed, Djokovic, Murray, Delpo etc) as he usually is.

So overall, I don't see the hype about Nadal's play. This is nothing different from Nadal than what we have seen from his this year.

Of course he is better than he was in Cincy and Toronto. But that's not saying much, since he was so poor there to being with..

Jimmy, did you take a class in statistics recently? I notice that you use ONLY his play in the quarterfinals and later at Wimbledon, which makes no sense since he hasn't played the quarterfinals and later at the US Open. If you want comparable statistics, look at his first 4 rounds at WImbledon. I think you'll find when you do that Nadal's first serve percentage is BETTER at the US Open. Nice try. :D

There is nothing simple about "going for more on his first serve". If it was as simple as that, he'd have done it at the US Open before now.

In addition, I did NOT say he was playing BETTER than he ever has. What I said was that he has never played in this MANNER before. If you can document another tournament in which he has regularly thrown down 135 mph serves, I will gladly admit that I was wrong. The thing is that you can't, because he's never done it before. Thus my point stands.

---If you had told me 2 weeks ago that Rafael Nadal would be THE in-form player of the 2010 US Open thus far, I?d have laughed at you.---

I remember that the experts were used to laugh at Rafa's fans and The Spanish Matador (whose weapon is a tennis-racquet) has proven the experts wrong.

"Let's hope Federer doesn't lose to Soderling/Djokovic on purpose just to avoid the embarrassment of becoming the 1st player in history to lose to the same player in each of the 4 grand slam finals."

This i ssome of the stuff that i read on other sites!!!........lol!!!

Maybe the "experts" place a little too much value on performance at the lead in tournaments? Before Toronto, Rafa said "if I lose in the first round here it does not mean I will not win the USO." I think he went on to add the converse but I'm less certain of that.

It's true that he wasn't in peak form for Toronto or Cincy. His serve wasn't working well - he said he hadn't been practicing it intensively, afraid of "breaking his ab" again. And he wasn't up to snuff returning serve either. Probably not moving as well as usual, either. I think he was being super-careful, afraid of "broking everything" AGAIN before the USO. Can't blame the man for feeling snake-bit. And who knew he could pull accurate 130+ mph serves out of the bag? Says himself that he's still not quite at his best. Scary thought for his opponents.

---If you had told me 2 weeks ago...Given his performance in Toronto and Cincinnati, a round of 16 exit seemed not only possible, but likely.---

But, already 10 days ago You predicted Rafa to advance to semifinals ! [U.S. Open pre-tournament expert picks, 2010-08-30]. Rafa played his first match 9 days ago, on August 31 !

Rafa is guest-commentating on ESPN for the Djokovic-Monfils match. He's good. :)

I see that cheryl has answered at least some of the misleading stats in imjimmys post. There is a pattern with this person's comments. It involves always trying to pick some negatives out of Rafa's stellar play. Anyone who would even try to make the argument that Rafa's new serve isn't really what it appears to be, either has to be blind or doesn't know much about tennis.

The one thing that Rafa hasn't had is the ability to get cheap points off his serve when he is down on his serve or in a tough spot. This new weapon helps him do exactly that, which is why he hasn't been broken thus far in the tournament. It's the one thing that was on my personal wish list for Rafa's game.

The serve also changes the dynamic of Rafa's game. Now he has the option of blasting a super fast first serve, receiving a weak reply from his opponent and then blasting a forehand winner to the opposite end of the court. I call it the "one-two punch" that guys like Sod, Berdych, Delpo, Djoker and even Fed have had all along. Rafa doesn't have to work as hard, run as long and wear out his knees just to win a point now. This is good news for the longevity of his career. Rafa is looking to move forward into the court and closing out points much more quickly than in the past.

This stronger serve is the missing piece of the puzzle in Rafa's game on hardcourt. I never thought he was playing full out at either Toronto or Cincy. Rafa himself said he felt a tightness in his abdominals and didn't want to risk any injury. He looked like a Rafa who didn't want to go all out and risk his chances at the USO. He had his eye on the prize. Rafa knew that he didn't need to win at Toronto or Cincy. He needed valuable and much needed match play to get into form.

I do think Rafa was underestimated by many before the USO. Winning all clay court masters tournaments, RG and Wimbledon, becoming #1 with a huge lead in points, should have earned Rafa more respect than he was given prior to the USO. Whatever his past record here, the fact that he was fit and healthy and coming off two incredible slam wins, should have at least made more people sit up and take notice. Never say never when it comes to Rafa and never underestimate him.

Cheryl: I wasn't disputing what you said. My point was just that bigger 1st serve gains are not as dramatic in the case of Nadal. Definitely not as much as it is made out to be. For him harder and flatter may not always be better.

When I put the stats, I compared the post QF of Wimbledon, because there was hardly any difference in those matches and the first 4.

Here's an identical comparison - (UsOpen 1st 4 rounds vs Wimb 2010 1st 4 rounds - from the tournament websites).

Wimb 1st round

First Serve percentage: 69%
Avg 1st serve speed: 115 MPH
Avg: 2nd serve speed: 90 MPH

Wimb 2nd round

68%
116 Mph
94 Mph

Wimb 3rd round

69%
114 mph
95 Mph

WImb 4th round
65%
117 Mph
94 Mph

_______________

UsOpen 1st round
67%
117 mph
89 Mph


UsOpen 2nd round
65%
120 mph
89 Mph


UsOpen 3rd round
57%
120 mph
88 mph

UsOpen 4th round
63%
118 mph
88 mph

________

As you can see, Nadal's average 2nd serve speed is hovering at 88 mph in USopen. At Wimbledon it was 93.5 mph. That means Rafa has LOST 5-6 mph on his 2nd serve.

The average 1st serve percentage was 63% at the UsOpen and 67.75% at wimbledon 2010 (and this percentage increased later in the tournament).
So again there is a 5% decrease in the average 1st serve percentage.

To offset these: Nadal's average 1st serve speed at UsOpen is 118.5 mph. At Wimbledon it was 115.5 mph.

So he's gained 3 MPH on average at the expense of a 5% DECREASE in 1st serve percentage and a 6mph avg DECREASE in the 2nd serve.

That's usually what happens. You serve harder, flatter, and you sacrifice accuracy and percentage to gain speed.

Is it worth it? Who knows, and it depends on the returner. But Nadal was asked this question in the tennis channel interview - on whether he was serving the best he ever has. Rafa said that he was trying to hit the ball a little flatter with the grip change. However he has served better - with more variety and a higher percentage before.

I won't be surprised if he starts with the more spinny higher percentage serve in the final, if he makes it there and his opponent is Federer. It's the lack of pace on Nadal's serve which troubles Federer..

rafa was never going to lose R16 here

he is not playing the best tennis of his CAREER, because he will never play better on hard courts than he does on clay

but he is playing the best HARD-COURT tennis of his career

either Fed or Nadal will choke before the final. That is obvious. It always happens.

No no no ... Ricky we want our Fed/Nadal final.

Let it be Fed, and let it be on Saturday!

Sorry guys... you may call me party-breaker but that's not gonna happen :)))
Fed was playing well... with Dabul...Nabul...Tabul what was his name... ???
Nole is Rafa's opponent for Sunday... nothing else is possible :)))))

zare, don't jinx it, just keep the low profile ;)

Oh come now, Ricky. I really didn't ACTUALLY mean that he was going to lose in the round of 16. LOL. I was being...ironic. Right here on this site, I picked him to make the semifinals.

Jimmy - you can make statistics say most anything you want them to. Here's what you're missing this time. Nadal's first serve is faster than either Federer's or Djokovic's. Comparing USO statistics to Wimbledon is a bit of an exercise in futility as almost every player under the sun serves faster at wimbledon. Why? Because the conditions there are more favorable. Yet Nadal is actually serving faster at the USO.

Statistics only tell so much. Sometimes you have to go by what you see...and I see a Nadal serving WAY better than usual. His second serve mphs have dropped off a bit, but that might be again because of the wind.

The most compelling piece of proof, however, is that Nadal hasn't been broken yet. This seems to imply that he can pull out a better serve when he needs to.

zare - it wouldn't 100% surprise me if Nole beat Fed.

I believe Rafa's very best matches EVER are as follows:
3 - Roland Garros Final, 2008
2 - Wimbledon Final, 2008
1 - Australian Open Semifinal, 2009

Rafa was steadily improving all aspects of his game in route to that magical match against Verdasco. Then injuries and personal problems came and his form took a dip. Now he is on the rise again, but I don't think he has yet reached the quality he displayed at ANY of the aforementioned 3 matches, but he is improving and experimenting with different aspects of his game. Unlike other observers I am unimpressed with Rafa's serve speed. I never doubted he could do it, I just figured he preferred accuracy, variety and spin to sheer speed, and it worked for him. Now, in order to protect his knees and to ensure a long career, he has NO CHOICE but to go for shorter points and adapt his game when needed, take more risks on the serve and be more aggressive on hard courts.
I have been reading this and other tennis blogs for years, and this is what everyone has been saying: If Rafa wants to stay healthy he has to win more points off his serve. So why is it a big surprise now?

no way the 2009 AO final is in Nadal's Top 5

Ricky, I agree. I'm talking about the semifinal with Verdasco, not the final with Roger.

3 wins away now

Roger and Stan final.. lovely.

1 - Australian Open Semifinal, 2009???

Definitely not his best match. The backhand cross court (which he used all tournament to gain control of points) has not working at all that day (glad it worked in the finals). Nadal went into his defensive shell and basically outlasted a tired Verdasco at the end. Great effort but definitely not his best match.

best match is definitely Wimbly08 given what was at stake then and the opponent.

I don't want to beat this thing to death, but as far as imjimmys argument, I would compare Rafa's 2008 serving stats to this year. I am leaving out 2009 because Rafa had that abdominal tear and couldn't serve well. Maybe then we will see the difference.

Rafa doesn't need to serve that fast at Wimbledon because it's grass. He can use his spin very effectively. He doesn't need flat, fast bombs. Also, Rafa isn't just serving flat all the time. He is alternating and using the spin to keep his opponents off balance.

Rafa doesn't need to average serve speeds in the 130's. Just the fact that he can hit those kind of serves to get him out of tough spots when he is down on his serve or to get some cheap points, is a great addition to his game. Additionally, it's not just about the serve. It's Rafa's whole game. His net play, volleying has been superb. He is hitting his backhand and forehand flatter and it's working. He is now moving into the court aggressively to close out points much more quickly. His hardcourt game has evolved and I still say that this serve was the last piece of the puzzle.

I don't think we have even seen the best from Rafa yet. This is the time when he should be peaking, in the quarterfinal match with Verdasco. I have a feeling that we will see him go up another gear or two.

The mere fact that Rafa hasn't even dropped a set yet at the USO and has NOT been broken once, says a lot about what that serve has done for his game. Sometimes you have to forget about getting mired in statistics and just sit back and watch Rafa's game. That way you don't miss the big picture.

NNY, cudnt agree with you more..

Rafa is guest-commentating on ESPN for the Djokovic-Monfils match. He's good. :)

cherylmurray , 9/8/10 10:25 PM


Wow! I wish I could listen to it.

thanks for the blog cheryl! but who cares about bookies when we have TT experts!

nadline - I've never seen him commentate before. It was REALLY interesting watching him talk about the sport. He was talking about his improved serve (of course) and about how Monfils is never going to win the match if he doesn't stand closer to the baseline and get more aggressive. "Is impossible". :)

Rafa has been incredible! But I also like Roger's chances... I feel confident Roger will win yet again against Novak. I'm hoping for a whopping match. :) and then there is Verdasco for Rafa, it's not over till it's over.

its debatable , but nadal's best performances as are follow..u can rank them ion any order as desired..

Wimb 2008 qtr final against muzz (near-flawless), wimb 2008 final , oz 2009 final (rafa at his aggressive best againt fed) , rg 2008 final ( above perfect) , wimb 2010 semi final ! was also marvellous.

Most of the people remember Nadal's best performances usually comes against Fed..

The reason for that is Fed and Nadal both push eachother to deliver more than what they can and that makes the match even more exciting.

As far Fed's chances are concerned , I think Fed is playing well but nadal has improved his serve which can cause problem to everyone on HC matches..

But the boost for FEd would have been the cincinati masters as this year he was defending madrid , french , wimby and cincy 4 tournaments that he won in a row last year but he failed to win any of the first three , but just at the right time (for us open) he won cincy.So that must have given him the boost that he can still lift the USO for 6th time..

just few matches to go..

OzO final 2009 is my fav. fed stepped up his game so many times, nadal always stepped up even more. and he played so aggressively on important points. many of the most spectacular points are in this final too...

Rafa in the booth:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp04WsAJM5g&feature=player_embe dded

smr, thanks al lot for the link, enjoyed it greatly.

Joker has a winning streak against Rafa, but he will find it difficult to get past Roger. Rafa will choose Roger over Djokovic as his opponent. Roger would have liked anybody but Rafa. Celestial combination appear aligned for Rafa, only a meteor can bombard it, but it is difficult to see it having the face of Verdasco or Youzhny or Wawarinka. The latter two are single handed backhanders who will find it difficult to blast a return on the wide serve from the ad court. On deuce court too, Rafa?s natural serve is on the T. Only Verdasco can spoil the party, but stats are loaded against him. That said, stats were loaded against Soderling too before the Roland Garros 2010 quarter-final upset. These days, it is better to keep fingers crossed with optimism.

eskay, Sod has a winning streak against a recovering from injury Rafa, who was emotionally challenged, with astomach tear last year, not against the Rafa with the new improved serve, who has held serve for 61 consecutive games at the USO, and is full of confidence.

eskay, I meant Nole not Sod.

@nadline: That be so. But, Nole is playing well. He was not expected to get over the black gale so easily. Perhaps he has given tougher fights to Rafa in the past. So has Andy Murray. Roger has found it difficult to get past Rafa the last few years. Rafa is sometimes said to be in his mind, but Rafa is not there in Nole's mind. If Nole causes an upset, and Rafa is not upset, we are into a street fight, with victor not as easily predictable.

eskay, I don't want to labour the point but their h2h is 14.7 to Rafa, including Nole's 3 recent wins, so I leave it at that.

@nadline: Both matches, Rafa vs. Federer or Rafa vs. Nole would be exciting. But it is generally felt that Federer stands a lesser chance against Rafa. Nole may be 7-14 against Rafa, but on hard courts he is 7-3. But then, Rafa has improved his hard court game this year whereas such newly improved shots are not seen in the games of Nole or Andy Murray or Federer. They continue to play as well as ever. It may be individual preference which players one wants to see in the finals. As for me, both Rafa vs. Federer and Rafa vs. Nole are equally good.

Though he'd never say so out loud, I have to think that nadal (if he gets that far) would rather play Roger in the final.

Nadal would much rather play Federer in the final...not that it will matter

"eskay, I don't want to labour the point but their h2h is 14.7 to Rafa, including Nole's 3 recent wins, so I leave it at that."

true, but on the h/c, if am not mistaken nole has the edge: 7:3

just noticed it was addressed, sorry for the redundancy.

Rafa will definitely prefer Rog but Nole

eskay, I have said here before that Nole is the one who gives Rafa the hardest time of the others in the top 4, I was just trying to say that too much should be read into Rafa's performance last year, when Nole beat him 3 times in a row, because it's been well documented that he was not playing at 100%; and if the top players couldn't beat him when he was vulnerable, they would have been asking themselves many questions about their own form.

Yes nadline, that period last year, Rafa lost to almost every top ten player he faced, except Tsonga. Fed should have met Rafa last year as that was the best time to beat Rafa (ha ha Rafa was smart enough to lose early so that he avoided meeting Fed to give him the advantage:-))

Of the other top four guys, Rafa seemed to have more problems with Nole on the hard courts than say Murray or Fed. On the fast hard court of Cincy, Nole had beaten Rafa 6-1, 7-5 at the semi in 2008. I think the score was quite similar in 2009 Cincy semi when they met again. Back then (in 2008) Nole's hard court game was at its best; according to Rafa, Nole played 'paint the line' tennis. Nole always play 'risky' tennis then but he was so good that the balls always just touch the lines.

Right now, with his improved serve, Rafa should have added confidence in his hard court game, and regardless of who he'll face in the final(if he gets there), I'm sure he'll go all out to beat his opponent. Fingers crossed, that he is able to get there and win it all.

PS. I must say that Delpo has the hard court game to trouble anyone, the top four guys included. However, after his wrist injury, no one can be sure how he'll perform when he comes back. Will he get back to his best soon or will this injury affects his potential to be a great and dominant player in future? I have earmarked him to be the next dominant champion, after Fed and Rafa, but that was before this injury; right now I'm not so sure about it anymore. I wish Delpo well, in his tennis career.

And Rafa's into his first USO final! \o/ \o/ \o/

And it was not to be!

either Fed or Nadal will choke before the final. That is obvious. It always happens.
RickyDimon, 9/8/10 11:35 PM