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Cheryl Murray

  • Rafael Nadal can win the US Open. I think.

    2010-07-25 23:41:38

    I wanted to write a blog dissecting Rafael Nadal’s grass court game. I mostly wanted to do this because I’ve seen so many misconceptions surrounding his success at Wimbledon, that I sort of wanted to address them formally.

    Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. It’s not that I can’t analyze a player’s game…I’ve been a tennis aficionado for longer than Rafael Nadal has been alive. It’s just that after 3 paragraphs, I bored myself senseless. Whether this is due to my own writing deficiency or whether the topic is one that simply should not be catalogued for more than a paragraph or two, I’m not sure. Either way, I made the decision that the original blog should not be published in its entirety. You can thank me later.

    As a compromise, I’ll simply say this. The reason that Nadal is so good on grass when it seems he shouldn’t be is due in large part to his low-risk game. What I mean by that is that the spin that he puts on the ball has 2 advantages. Number 1 is what we already know, which is that on a high-bouncing surface (like clay), his forehand will kick up to shoulder level to whoever he might be playing at the time.

    The other, less well known reason is that the topspin means that he doesn’t have to go after the lines every time he wants to hit a winner. This is especially important on natural surfaces like grass and clay because variances in the court surface (clumps of clay, divets in the grass and the like) mean that the ball is more likely to bounce in unexpected ways. Players who rely too heavily on perfect timing because they have to aim for the baseline or sideline will tend to make more mistakes.

    The other main thing that Nadal has going for him on grass is that the surface is like clay in a very important way – it’s slippery. Nadal has perfected the art of going behind a player on clay…and guess what? That works the EXACT SAME WAY on grass. Oh, and the backhand. The recent addition of the slice to his game in combination with the flattened out two-handed backhand means that Mr. Nadal is, indeed, an unlikely grass court genius. Weird, though it may be.

    Which brings up a more relevant question. Does it work on hard courts? With the US Open drawing close and the summer hard court swing just ramping up it’s a valid question. Nadal is the No. 1 player in the world (by some margin) and the winner of the last two Grand Slams. Is it safe to expect him to make it three in a row come September? Maybe, maybe not.

    There is a common Rafa-fan saying that goes something like “Nobody beats a healthy Rafa”. And in some ways, the sentiment is valid, especially on clay and grass. But on hard courts, PLENTY of players have beaten a healthy Rafa. The topspin that is so effective at the French and Wimbledon simply doesn’t work as well on hards. His serve isn’t big enough to be a true weapon on hards, and the speedy surface and low bounce at Flushing Meadows often keeps him on the defensive.

    But his biggest problem on fast hard courts like the US Open is that the big hitters – guys like Juan Martin Del Potro – can go for their shots with near impunity on concrete. There aren’t bad ball hops and a surface that isn’t slick means that they can plant their feet and set up their intended winners with far more ease.

    Does this mean Nadal WON’T win the US Open? Not at all. He wants it BADLY, and for Rafa, that will to win is perhaps the single most important factor of all. Also keep in mind that Nadal has made the semifinals there twice in a row, not a bad feat for somebody who is supposed to struggle on hard courts. He probably wouldn’t say no to a favorable draw, but I have no doubt that he is capable of adding that last most elusive of titles. Whether he will do so remains to be seen.

    And look at that…I wrote 3 paragraphs about Rafa’s grass court game after all. Good thing I don’t mind breaking my own rules…..

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Comments

HA HA, lovely piece cheryl :D ..yep rafa has a good shot at Us open this time, his best result in Australia was also a SF before he won the title in 09...

vamosrafa , 7/26/10 12:43 AM


Yes, thanks Cheryl ... nice bit'o writing. I think Nadal has a good chance this year at the USO. Let's see how Toronto goes first.

smr , 7/26/10 12:56 AM


If he stays healthy it sure is a step in the right direction. As I said though, I'm sure he wouldn't turn down a good draw. :)

cherylmurray , 7/26/10 1:26 AM


Cheryl,

You have a way of saying what I am thinking! It's sometimes a bit eerie, as though you are reading my mind, or maybe it's just that we think alike.

I really enjoyed the few paragraphs you did write about why Rafa is so great on grass. It was just enough, not too much detail and not too little so that we are still left wondering why his game works on grass. It was an excellent and perceptive analysis.

I very much want Rafa to win the USO this time. I just have a feeling that this is his time. Things have come together for him in a way that neither I nor many of his fans could have seen some months ago.

Rafa is on top of his game, that formidable mental toughness, confidence and will to win is back stronger than ever and what is most important, his knees are healthy. This is the first time that he will come into the USO healthy and rested. He is definitely feeling it now, at the very top of his game.

I am also hoping for a good draw! Shameless, maybe, but there you have it. Rafa always seems to have such tough draws and it would please me if for once he could get a break on that score. Not that I don't think he can't do it with a tough draw. Rafa has a way of confounding everyone once he sets his mind to something. And he has set his mind on winning the USO. I feel it, I sense it in some of his comments. He wants this!

You are right - Rafa is not unbeatable on a fast hardcourt surface. But this time I think he just might be. Rafa is a different player than he was last year when he played the USO. Of course we know that he is healthy, but he is also a more aggressive player now. He knows how to move into the court to win points quickly, his net play has been superb, his serve is so much better now. I think these are all things that will help him to conquer the most formidable slam.

I am not about to get giddy with excitement, but I do have reason to feel very optimistic.

Thanks again for another great blog!

Nativenewyorker , 7/26/10 5:19 AM


i dont think he can win the U.S. Open. i KNOW he can win it.

i know he CAN win it.

But he WONT.

RickyDimon , 7/26/10 6:36 AM


HE CAN,HE MIGHT

vrael , 7/26/10 7:50 AM


Thanks Cheryl for this blog, interesting points being brought up about Rafa winning on grass with his top spin shots. I agree also on Rafa's movements on slippery surfaces like clay and grass. Rafa himself recognizes his movements as one of his main assets for winning on grass.

Ricky trying to do the anti-jinxing, like atr?

I hope for fine weather in New York, Rafa was affected by the bad weather for the past two years. I hope for a fine weather, a reasonable to good draw for Rafa, a healthy Rafa without any knee issues, and proper scheduling for every player if possible. The rest of the job is up to Rafa and how he deals with his opponents. All the best to you Rafa, please win the USO for yourself and for your many many fans.

luckystar , 7/26/10 8:11 AM


<<The other main thing that Nadal has going for him on grass is that the surface is like clay in a very important way ? it?s slippery>>

Rafa also noticed this.
Rafa Interview at Wimbledon on Wednesday, 30 June 2010:
==Q. How are the courts playing? There's been no rain at all. How are the courts playing?
RAFAEL NADAL: Perfect.
Q. Perfect?
RAFAEL NADAL: Is dry.
Q. Just your conditions?
RAFAEL NADAL: Lot of CLAY behind the baseline (smiling.) You can move well, so... Perfect conditions.==

Augustina08 , 7/26/10 10:01 AM


The problem for Nadal in NY is that there are quite a few players who are capable of taking his topspin on the rise with ease on a hard court.(no bad bounces on clay and grass to mess up that tactic) The other problem is that his serve isnt as effective on hard court,again due to the fact that the truer bounce means that his slider doesnt go up and away from an opponent the way it does on grass. The other headache for Nadal(and every other contender for the title) is the horrendous scheduling that means that the semis and finals are played on back to back days. Which means if you win a tight five setter in the semis,the next day you are playing the final final. (which can be a big disadvantage,especially if your opponent had an easier ride.) However,I still think he is capable of winning NY. I dont think he will this year,but thats another story..

tj600 , 7/26/10 10:10 AM


I add to my previous post that journalists laughed loudly after Rafa's last answer.

Augustina08 , 7/26/10 10:12 AM


on grass, nadal's serve is MUCH MORE effective to deal with in comparison to hard courts so thats another reason. additionally, he has a phenomenal hand-eye + ball-eye coordinations which has tested the most on grass where u get tricky bounces and the time is so short. O hard courts, u can get away with these things a little bit...i think cheryl,tj and augustina have mentioned the other factorswell enough now... as for the opponents, well everyone can move well on a hardc ourt becoz its not slippery, u can change direction with ease and maintain balanec despite being a big guy so hard courts provied adv to others.

nadal has won toronto TWICE and an olympic gold , a dubai title (beating fed in 2006 which was fed's prime) ON DECO TURF ! so there is no quesition whether rafa can win on this surface or not. he surely can ! wil he do it this year?? well how manyn were convinced he was gona win oz 09 before the trnament ? how many were convinced he ws gona win the olympic gold in 08 when he had nole in his path ?

I am saving my prediction for now, want to see toronto and cincy first and then the shape of the draw..these factors mean a lot !

vamosrafa , 7/26/10 12:43 PM


@vamosrafa
its the reason why so many players are good on hard courts,hence there are more contenders for the hard court slams. On clay and grass,there are generally less contenders. Look at the top 10 players. With the exception of nadal,every single one prefers hard courts to clay.

tj600 , 7/26/10 12:58 PM


yup, the no. of contenders are surely greater as many more players can win a hard court slam.

vamosrafa , 7/26/10 2:28 PM


tj, its because they know they can't beat Rafa on clay, that's why they prefer hard courts. They certainly don't prefer grass too because they know they can't beat Fed, and now Rafa, on grass!:-)) Movements on clay and grass are more difficult to master than on hard surfaces, that's why there are more players who can do play well on hard courts than on clay and grass.

luckystar , 7/26/10 2:50 PM


Hmm..vamosrafa, many more players can win a hard court slam, but didn't. So far, other than Fed and Rafa, only Nole and Delpo had won one hard court slam each! Roddick and Hewitt's wins were before Fed became TMF and Rafa was then a 16/17 year old boy. We shall see, we shall see...who can rise and get a hard court slam this time.

luckystar , 7/26/10 2:57 PM


Winning of USO is one of Rafa's goals for his remaining career. Rafa thinks that if a good player wants to play well on a certain surface, he is going to find a way to play. I like Rafa's self-belief, and I too believe in him.

Rafa's Interview at Wimbledon on Sunday, 4 July 2010:
==Q. How have you changed your game to become so comfortable on grass where you now have two Wimbledon championships?
RAFAEL NADAL: I don't know. The main thing I think is if you want to play well, you gonna find a way. So if you really want to play well in one surface and you are a good player, I think in the end YOU GONNA FIND A WAY...
Q. How hungry are you regarding winning the US Open ? How important is it for you to win the US Open, as well?
RAFAEL NADAL: Right now I'm very happy to win Wimbledon. Yeah (smiling). We gonna think about US Open in one month. Right now we just relax and enjoy for me this amazing season.
Was very difficult for me to be back at my best. I DID, so is very important and emotional moment for me. I want to enjoy that. For sure, keep working to try to be in the US Open finally ready to try to win. But for sure US Open gonna be one of MY GOALS for rest of my career...==

Augustina08 , 7/26/10 3:16 PM


luckystar, perhaps its more appropriate to say that more players are capable of beating the two giants (rafa-roger) in a hard court slam than on other ones..vut beating one of them is diff and winning the entire slam is diff...beating either of these two is one if the main obstacles but players have other major hurdles too so winning a slam is a diff story...


u are right, we shall wait and see ! why nt apply the rafa-approach : one match/trnament at a time :D tornonto is up next na, very important tournament so focus on it first :P

vamosrafa , 7/26/10 3:46 PM


tj600 - thats cause the majority of the tournaments are played on hards

if there # of clay and hard-court tournaments were flip-flopped, guys like Nico Almagro and Albert Montanes would be in the Top 10.

and guys like Albert Ramos-Vinolas would be in the Top 100!!!!

RickyDimon , 7/26/10 4:45 PM


Ricky,
and Federer's designation of best of his generation would not be as certain...

chlorostoma , 7/26/10 5:12 PM


cheryl, firstly, let me say I enjoyed your piece, more so because you managed to articulate what a lot of people are thinking, however, I seem to remember the same reservations about Rafa's chances on grass until he proved otherwise, so I can't help thinking that once he wins the USO, people will then come up with theories about why he is no good on indoor courts.

I just think that so far, there have been reasons why he has never won the USO, fatigue and injury being top of the list. I also feel that the title has largely been won by Federer throughout Rafa's career, apart from Delpo winning last year; Rafa has made the SF twice in a row, which is more than a lot of the so called h/c experts have managed, and the other day I found a newspaper article about the fact that when he was beaten by Ferrer, I think in 2007, he had a foot injury, which was acknowledged by Ferrer himself. So I think that Rafa will continue to defy the theorists, and prove that he can win on all surfaces.

nadline , 7/26/10 5:43 PM


Oh, as far as a favourable draw goes, Rafa seems to always attract the big servers. It doesn't matter whether he is No1 or 2 or even 3, like a magnet he'll draw the Isners, Karlovics, Hasse and Gulbis' whilst Federer will be swanning around with the W/C straight from college.

I also feel that Federer will be back at No 2 before the USO. There are only 20 points in it and I have a feeling he will win either Cincy or Toronto.

nadline , 7/26/10 5:50 PM


Fed won Cincinnati last year, so he has points to defend

RickyDimon , 7/26/10 6:27 PM


come on delpo. i wanna see him v nadal in his current form and im hoping for a epic us open final between nadal and TMF and nadal winning. that would be truly awesome because his wimby draw was hard and nadal takes it as a challenge to get through a hard draw and he seemed more up for it because of that. come rafa and also TMF because the rivalry is getting cobwebs on it and we tennis fans are forgetting how great it is to see such awesome tennis so please meet at us open and treat us.

ijusth8u , 7/26/10 8:27 PM


My guess is that Murray and Rafa will meet in the US Open finals. As to who will win?........im not ready to call.

I will never doubt that Rafa can win the US Open..........he WILL, even if is not this year but he will much sooner rather than later..............there's just no doubt............i mean, what is there to stop him........really?!!!!!!..............and I wouldn't say his knees!!!!

VAMOS!!!!!!!

Monalysa , 7/26/10 8:37 PM


Ricky --

You told me the exact same thing when I picked Nadal to win Wimbledon this year. That he CAN win but that he WON'T.

:D

cherylmurray , 7/26/10 11:00 PM


Here's hoping for a similar outcome then Cheryl. :)

Zooni , 7/26/10 11:25 PM


Cheryl,

Well said! :)

Nativenewyorker , 7/27/10 12:16 AM


tj600: you're right the scheduling at the USO can be a nightmare - as it often is at the AO. Either playing in the heat of the afternoon (exhausting) or the evening matches which can go on into the early hours of the morning (knackering). Rafa fortunately has amazing stamina as we saw in the AO final after his punishing 5-setter against Vedasco the night before. At the time most people thought he would be at a dreadful disadvantage against a much fresher Federer and unable to perform at his best, let alone win the damned thing!

in spite of the extended lay-off for his knees and the abdominal muscle tear, his run to the USO SF last year was relatively simple (Gasquet, Keifer, Almagro, Monfils, Gonzales) with three straight-set wins and two 4-set matches against Keifer and Monfils.

I would say his chances of lifting this GS are greater than in any previous year provided he does not have to deal with ALL the on-fire, hard-hitting, big serving players on the way!!!

ed251137 , 7/27/10 1:04 AM


ricky and cheryl,
cheryl,
I had decided not to write this after reading Ricky's earlier post, but as you wrote about his and your prediction for wimbledon, I'll write it after all:
I was surprised with Ricky rather categorical prediction for Rafa at Wimbledon... not that it was unreasonable and perhaps the reasonably prediction was that it was less than 50% for Nadal to win it... (even though in my book it was well more than 50%)... it's just that,

Ricky,
what happened with you when Rafa had to quit the AO while playing Murray: I remember you writing that anguished short post about this being the beginning of the end of Nadal's career... again, understandable in the moment... but ever since then if I'm not mistaken you have had a different tone altogether than in the last two years regarding Nadal... as if something had broken irreparably... and this even after Nadal's not shaby hard court early season and strong claycourt season when his confidence kept building back up. I was then surprised by your prediction for Wimby - I would have expected... "may or may not win, but more likely than not will".
So, forgive this windy post... but is your own perception not biasing you a little too much against Rafa's chances, this time at the US Open? (We all know that it is by far not sure he (or anyone else) will win.)

chlorostoma , 7/27/10 3:11 AM


chlorostoma,

Thank you for asking the question I have wanted to ask Ricky for a while. I remember when Ricky told Rafa fans to prepare ourselves for the end of his career after he reinjured his knee at the 2010 AO. I wrote a very personal reply, about how miracles do happen and what it means to never give up hope, based on my own life experience after a catastrophic car accident when I was twenty. I never got a response, but looking at what has happened, I am glad that I wrote it. I was right.

Nativenewyorker , 7/27/10 3:43 AM


Maybe Ricky is trying to tell Rafa fans to be prepared for the worst but hope for the best. At that time, (ie the earlier hard court season this year) nobody knows whether Rafa would win anymore. Ricky was trying to adopt a cautious approach, so that disappointment in Rafa's results may be easier to bear. Ricky is being consistent throughout this year, not expecting Rafa to win anything big, ie Wimbledon and then the USO (did Ricky predict Rafa not winning FO too? I've can't remember).

Talking about Rafa and Wimbledon, I'm never in doubt that Rafa can win it. Even though there were hiccups along the way, I know Rafa will still win it in the end. That's because:
1) I know Rafa has overtaken Fed as the best grass court player, since the day Rafa had beaten Fed. I'm not talking about Fed at his prime; Fed is definitely not at his prime now. It remains to be seen whether a Rafa at his prime can be better than a Fed at his prime, on the grass court.

2) Fed's performance during this grass season, from the loss to Hewitt at Halle, to his first round narrow escape from Falla, I knew he was in trouble and I did predict him getting into trouble when facing Berdych.

3) I was observing how Berdych performed during this Wimbledon, he was consistently good, even dealing with Istomin, where he was taken to five sets because Istomin served big, this new version Berdych never gave up, he kept fighting. Against another big server, Daniel Brands, Berdych triumphed in four tight sets too.

4) I know Rafa can handle Sod after his fine performance in the RG final. More so after watching how Sod was taken to five sets by Ferrer. To beat Sod, the ROS is important. Those that had fallen by the way side when they faced Sod were those not known to be good returner of serves; that Ferrer match was a very tight match.

5) I always feel that after Fed and Rafa, the next two best players (currently) on grass are Roddick and Murray; Hewitt and Nole come next. After Roddick had fallen, followed by Fed, I know the only one left that could threaten Rafa was Murray. Murray had lived up to my expectations and he gave Rafa a good fight. Though Rafa won in straight sets, we knew that second set could go either way; it was Rafa's gutsy play, taking the initiative to come to the net that saved him the set point in the tie break.

6) After Rafa dispatched of Sod, there was no doubt that Rafa could beat those big hitters, so Berdych wasn't a serious threat to Rafa in the final.

I hope when the USO comes around, I can have the same kind of 'winning' feeling for Rafa too.

luckystar , 7/27/10 4:41 AM


I'm with Vrael. Let's see how Toronto and Cincinnati go.
After all, this will be the first HC season Rafa will have played through with his new knee treatment.
Thank you, Cheryl.

mara002 , 7/27/10 6:54 AM


Also, as a FEDAL fan, I'm eager to hear what you might have to say about Roger working with Annacone, and what that might do for hungry fans' chances of a FEDAL final.

mara002 , 7/27/10 7:00 AM


I'm baffled here, if Rafa can win AO, hard court right (?) why can't he win USO this year, when it seems to me he's playing as well, if not better, than he was b4? All those points about what the ball does, doesn't do on hard, well he's shown it hardly makes any difference to him, hasn't he? Plus he's said it's what he really wants. IMHO the best part of Rafa's game is his will to win.

deuce , 7/27/10 7:49 AM


I don't think he can win, I KNOW, he can! And he will!
If its not this year that he wins the US open, he will do it in supreme fashion while clearing up all 4 GS in one year.
Far fetched? Not in the way I see the universe.

isabeau77 , 7/27/10 8:01 AM


Good old Isa - hope your crystal ball is in good working order :-)

Personally I think poor Ricky has been too embarrassed to pick Rafa for any GS for fear of jinxing him again. If you recall in May 2009 he stated categorically nobody could beat Rafa at Roland Garros and the next thing we know Sodall has pulled off the impossible.

Deuce: Although I said above I thought his chances at the USO were greater this year than in previous years, we have to bear in mind the field this year is exceptionally strong. There are a lot of hardcourt specialists on fire so it would not be a great surprise if they cause upsets in the early rounds for several of the top seeds. However, I do not anticipate one of those being delBoy!

ed251137 , 7/27/10 12:26 PM


What I should have said is I dont think it will be delBoy causing the upsets - given that he will not be match sharp and will have to take care of that wrist.

ed251137 , 7/27/10 12:37 PM


I have faith in my predictions. I remember clearly writing a response to a woman on Vamos Brigade who was very upset regarding Rafa's injuries and how all the noteworthy people were saying that it could possibly signal the end of Rafas career...etc etc
I wont lie my mind believed it and I too was upset, but irrespective of it all I couldnt suppress what my 'soul' new was true, what I knew with all my being, that didnt include the rational mind, that we had yet to see Rafael Nadal's true greatness and that his career was far rom over.

I said to her this,
mark my words Rafael Nadal will win the French Open and Wimbledon and he will lose one of the smaller tournaments he enters in between the beginning of the Clay Court Master season until the end of Wimbledon.

What we witness, is in my opinion Rafas greatest triumphs against all odd, conquering his personal demons, his doubters and restoring his confidence and order back into tennis.
Rafa won all the Masters tournaments he entered, then won the French, lost at Queens and won Wimbledon.
I was right, shocked but right, but rest assured no one would have been more surprised by his feats, other than Rafa himself and maybe that lady who although hoped I was right, thought I was a little crazy...:)

I predict Rafa will come close to equally Federer's GS tally, but I think he will miss that mark by 2, as Fed should win one more. But Rafa will do something Fed will not do and that is win all 4 majors in one year.

isabeau77 , 7/27/10 1:59 PM


Ricky --

You told me the exact same thing when I picked Nadal to win Wimbledon this year. That he CAN win but that he WON'T.

:D
cherylmurray, 7/26/10 11:00 PM


Actually, I'm so up for Ricky not backing Rafa to win, because it always works in Rafa's favour.

Ricky, even though Fed has to defend 1000 points at Cincy, I'm thinking that if he does that and improves on his Toronto points, he might just get the No 2 ranking back.

nadline , 7/27/10 4:18 PM


ed25: in ricky's defense, the whole world was sure no one would beat rafa at FO 2009. honestly, there's not much to read into that. did YOU not think rafa would pull off his 5th straight there ;)

by the way, i tend to agree with isa, my gut feeling tells me rafa may equal or pass pete in slams but not fed though close. my hope is that in this generation, rafa will be the only one (and join andre) to have the golden slam. i still live in hope that he can make the calender grand slam but that is so very difficult and all must go right for him - a bit of luck, good draw, he peaks at the right moments (while others don't:), he plays very smart, plans his whole year around the slams very carefully and no knee problems. the tour, the surfaece, the speed are all no longer what they were during laver's time.

homos , 7/27/10 4:33 PM


homos,

Nadal has good chances of making 12+(even 14+)Gs , but you cant put pressure on him saying he can overtake Sampras or even Fed in the list of all time GS winners.

Nadal is playing really well ,playing with the power, legs , and his mind.Putting pressure on his opponent by winning the big points.

However winning calendar slam is concern it is too tough you need to be at your best at the right time(though nadal can win GS without being at his best, but to win AO and US He needs to be at his best).

Only coming years will show us where he will be after his retirement..

champ00289 , 7/27/10 5:07 PM


Why are we talking about calender slam now, when Rafa haven't even won the USO yet. We shall talk about that only when Rafa has already won the AO, FO and Wimbledon in the same year. Till then, its all speculation now. I would rather hope that he wins the USO now and completes his career slam. I think that is realistically achievable. One step at a time, don't look or think too far ahead.

luckystar , 7/27/10 5:31 PM


Cheryl,
In my post of last night I meant to also add that you wrote, once again, an excellent article.

And, this time, perhaps it might have helped to mention ever so briefly the issue of the effectiveness of the painful injections into Rafa's knees' tendons.

Left knee treatment between Monte Carlo and Rome, and right knee much later (only after Wimbledon I believe). Left knee seems to have been just fine since the treatment - I believe that only the right one has given him pain. This all raises the question whether if Rafa continues to manage points well on the court and his schedule in general, and gets these treatments on rare occasions as needed, that he might be able to not miss many tournaments due to his knees in the coming years (... I really hope).

To put this another way, is this not one of the big factors come Toronto and the rest of the upcoming hardcourt season?

As for US Open this is the first year people question Feddie making it to the final; I would not put it past him just yet, even if I have some doubts.

chlorostoma , 7/27/10 5:52 PM


@ deuce

"IMHO the best part of Rafa's game is his will to win."

I like that!!

Monalysa , 7/27/10 7:23 PM


homos: I'm not trying to be a clever dick but there were ominous signs leading up to RG. First the bad loss to delPotro (in Miami?) then he was looking less than convincing in Monte Carlo and Rome, even though he won both, and went down to Federer in Madrid. Although we didn't know how bad the knees were at the time, it was clear he was in a bad place mentally. So no, I was not totally confident he would win RG again but nevertheless I couldn't believe it when Soderling brought him down after the trouncing Rafa had given him in Rome a few weeks before.

ed251137 , 7/27/10 10:00 PM


my wish is rafa beating fedex in the US open final..that would earn him the FEDERER-slam , of course the career golden slam would be there too. federer-slam would give so many points to rafa as the best player of this generation...

vamosrafa , 7/27/10 11:04 PM


Here is why I think Rafa will win the US OPEN in 2010:
Right after Wimbledon, talking to McEnroe he explained that in the last 3 tries he had some specific impediment, but this time will be different. Rafa very rarely makes predictions about a future tournament. He always says "It will be very difficult, but I will try my best, and if I play my best, I will have a chance". Or something to that effect.
But this time he seems far more determined, to the point that he is willing to go further in saying he wants to win badly and he is going for the win.
After RR and Wimby wins, an enormous amount of pressure has been lifted from his shoulders. He had to prove that his first Wimbledon wasn't a fluke. He had to prove that his career wasn't over. He had to prove that after fully recovered, he is still head and shoulders above the rest, and not just on clay.
Mission accomplished!
Now without any pressure, with all he needs to win for the season already won and behind him, with plenty of rest and knee treatment, for the first time in his career Rafa has the time to focus on one goal: Winning the US Open. He and his team will now gear his training and his warm-up tournaments to this Major.

grafight , 7/28/10 1:35 AM


When Rafa wants something badly and goes all out to get it, he'll succeed. We see it when he won Wimbledon in 2008, the Olympics gold medal, the French Open this year and also Wimbledon this year. I think we'll see it at this year's USO.

luckystar , 7/28/10 4:07 AM


I'll say for the record that it woudln't surprise me if Nadal were to win the Open this year. The surface is not his favorite, and I don't see him winning a bunch of them, but he's certainly playing well enough to do it once or twice.

cherylmurray , 7/28/10 4:11 AM


I agree with both grafight and luckystar. I think Rafa is in a great place right now. Anything else he wins is just icing on the cake. He has a comfortable lead in the rankings, has two slam wins under his belt, is brimming with confidence and healthy.

I don't think anything is ever guaranteed or written in stone, but I like Rafa's chances at the USO. That ferocious will to win is his great intangible edge over a field of talented hardcourt players.

Nativenewyorker , 7/28/10 4:26 AM


ed25 do agree with you. some people said they knew he was in trouble but nearly every article i read said rafa would win it. that was what i was getting at - as in ricky wasn't the only one who thought that. many people took it for granted and it's not like he did poorly in the clay warm up tournies. i think everyone was shocked at sod knocking him out. we alwys say we know it can't last forever but honestly, who is ever prepared for players like rafa and fed - so accustomed to winning big - get knocked out in their fav slams?? it was a horrific moment.

i'm with cheryl, i think rafa has a good chance this year at uso. i hope. i hope.

as this is a foum and people like to discuss things, i don't see why there should be policing about what some of us hope for rafa to achieve. who else can we talk about it too beside ardent fans of rafa with similar hopes and interests? we're in an 'off period' now so have time on our hands to make idle talk. we don't discuss bigger issues when big tounies are on. so what are we 'allowed' to discuss?

homos , 7/28/10 4:55 AM


I think discussing about Rafa's chances of winning USO is what this thread is all about. Of course we can discuss other tennis related issues. Talking of calender grand slam is too premature, as in 2009 when Rafa won the AO, about everyone was talking about calender grand slam for Rafa and we saw what happened. Why build up the hope and have it crushed and worst still, get ridiculed by those Rafa critics/haters who are always ready to pounce on the Rafa fans?

luckystar , 7/28/10 5:16 AM


Sorry that I may have sounded offensive. After what Rafa and we as his fans have gone through in 2009, I think I'll prefer to take things one step at a time. At this point I think Rafa's objective is to win the USO.

Do you all realized that there is something eerily similar about Rafa's 2008 RG to 2009 AO run and that of Fed's from RG 2009 to 2010 AO? Rafa won RG & Wimbledon in 2008, failed to win USO 08 but won AO 2009. Fed won RG & Wimbledon in 2009, but failed to win USO in 2009, and won AO 2010. It seemed that whatever Rafa won by beating Fed in 08/09, Fed had taken them back in 09/10. I hope Rafa really wins the USO this year, and break this pattern.

luckystar , 7/28/10 6:20 AM


"My guess is that Murray and Rafa will meet in the US Open finals. As to who will win?........im not ready to call." - Monalysa , 7/26/10 8:37 PM

Rafa vs AndyM is my dream US Open finals. When this happens, I wouldn't mind who wins.

phoenix , 7/28/10 7:15 AM


My wish is that Rafa beats both Djokovic and Federer on his way to the USO title in whichever order. Either Fed in the SF and Djoko in the final, or vice versa; just so that he could prove that the surface is not beyond him and squash all this talk about how Nole owns him on h/c.

nadline , 7/28/10 7:26 AM


Actually I hope to see Rafa/Fed in the same half of the draw and Nole/Murray in the other half. I hope to see Rafa/Fed and Nole/Murray semifinals, and then Rafa vs Nole/Murray final. Yes I also hope that Rafa beats Nole if they meet this time at the USO and stops all these Rafa can't beat Nole on the fast hard courts talks.

luckystar , 7/28/10 7:57 AM


Talking of Nole, does anyone know why he pulled out of Atalanta. What are the mysterious personal reasons he gave?

ed251137 , 7/28/10 9:46 AM


soderling might be seeded fourth come new york. then murray would be in anyone of the top 4 player's quarters.

tj600 , 7/28/10 10:06 AM


Yap, tj, just like this year's AO, where he met Rafa in the QF. Murray's no.4 ranking always seems to be at risk just before the slams. If Murray wins LA, that may help a little bit. The Canada/Cincy Masters are important for both Sod and Murray, in determining the no.4 ranking, I think they don't want to meet the other top 3 guys too soon.

The no.2 and no.3 ranking may change too, as Nole is only 20 points ahead of Fed at this moment. So the Canada/Cincy masters may determine the no.2 to no.5 positions just before the USO.

luckystar , 7/28/10 10:21 AM


I just noticed that Fed is now 110 points behind Nole. His points at Estoril was dropped, and was he entered for Hamburg? He gets a zero pointer for Hamburg??

luckystar , 7/28/10 10:34 AM


@mara002....i think if rafa wins toronto(one of the few hard courts he likes) this year.....gets to quarters of cincy(on a hard court he dislikes)....he would have enough confidence and inspiration to win uso.....rafa's hardcourt game is not the best....and to win USO...he needs to be inspired.....he needs to be inspired like oz 09....fearless and confident.....

VAMOS!!!

vrael , 7/28/10 10:36 AM


Toronto plays just the slightest bit slower than the US Open -- and a good bit slower than Cincinnati. There's a reason guys like Federer and Roddick often win in Cincinnati. :)

cherylmurray , 7/28/10 3:15 PM


luckystar,

You make some interesting points about the rankings and how they might very well change before the USO. There is a lot at stake for Murray, Djoker and Fed in the tournaments leading up to the USO.

I have to believe that Murray taking that last minute spot in L.A. has a lot to do with his ranking situation. He needs points fast if he is to hold off Sod, who I believe does not have much, if anything, to defend now.

cheryl,

Thanks for the info about the different court surfaces of Toronto and Cincy. I was not aware of that. I know that Cincy is very fast, much more like the USO court surfaces.

Nativenewyorker , 7/28/10 9:11 PM


nny -

I think Cincinnati has traditionally been even faster than the US Open. The courts in Cincy are fast and very low-bouncing.

cherylmurray , 7/28/10 11:25 PM


Good post Cheryl. Another reason why Nadal is good on grass is because he's an exceptional athlete. Grass rewards raw athleticism more than any other surface (Sampras, Fed, JMac, Borg, Becker, Edberg were all great athletes for ex). On grass you need great footwork and fast reflexes to cope with the variable bounce and skid through of the ball. Nadal does that very well and he is also awesome at dealing with low balls; plus he has an edge in movement and footwork over most other players on the natural surfaces (clay and grass).

Regd fast hardcourts: I said a while ago, that Nadal will probably never win the UsOpen. Of course it's hard to say never for someone like Nadal, and I might get flamed for his, but I still stand by my prediction. At least until Rafa makes changes in his game, not least improving the ROS and flattening the groundies.

Nadal's always had difficulty with the fast pace of deco-turf, and stumbled in the UsOpen to a better hardcourt player. History supports this, so far, and Nadal's slam tally is telling (1 hard court slam vs 7 clay/grass titles).
That said, unlike other people, I don't think Nadal's problem is a "big hitter" per se on hardcourts. Nadal lost to: Youzhny (2006), Ferrer (2007), Murray (2008) and Delpo (2009). Out of these only Delpo is a big hitter. So more than big hitting in general, Nadal is vulnerable to anyone who can hit BIG with his backhand. That's the key difference .

Rafa probably won't lose to a Tsonga or Gonzo (who are big hitters), but take someone with a strong backhand like Djokovic, Murray, Davydenko, Delpo etc, and one would worry about Rafa's chances. That's why these folks have always troubled Rafa on hardcourts.

Essentially, the pattern of any Nadal match is a forehand to backhand cross court exchange. On a surface like the US Open (where Rafa's forehand does not penetrate enough and the spin is diminished) someone with the ability to rip a deep flat cross court backhand has a great chance against Nadal.

Rafa is now in a very similar position to 2008, after winning FO and Wimbledon etc. This year there is no Olympics, but I don't think it matters. I was never really convinced with the "Rafa was tired" arguments at US Open 2008 (he played 3 extra matches in Beijing compared to Murray for instance, who won Cincy and beat him in UsOpen).

So in my mind. this year, the UsOpen will play out like in 2008. Certainly it could be a case of now or never for Rafa, since Delpo is (probably) not playing and Fed is iffy with his form. So yes, Rafa need to put New York on top priority.

I think the most important thing to watch is whether Rafa will display the aggressive mindset that he showed in Wimbledon. For the past 3 years (since 2007) he's always played great at Wimbledon: standing in to return serve, flattening out his forehand etc. However, he's not been able to keep up with those adjustments on the faster surface at the UsOpen.
Will this year be any different?

imjimmy , 7/29/10 8:30 PM


Good assessment Jimmy, perhaps you should email/twitter to Uncle Toni!!!..........lol!

However, i would still put my money on Rafa..............ALWAYS!!!!!

VAMOS!!!!!!!!!

Monalysa , 7/29/10 8:50 PM


imjimmy,

You certainly make some very good points. I would not think of flaming you. I merely choose to disagree when you use the word "never" with Rafa. I never say never, especially with Rafa.

There is a real argument that has been made here about Rafa always coming into the USO with some problem. In 2007 it was the tendonitis in the knees. I saw his fourth round match with Ferrer and Rafa was obviously hurting. He would never use it as an excuse, but he wasn't moving the way he normally does. I happen to agree with the physically and mentally tired argument for the 2008 USO. It wasn't just Rafa going to the Olympics. He played an insane amount of tennis that year. He had that wonderful winning streak that was finally snapped when he lost to Djoker in the semis at Cincy. That was right after Rafa secured the #1 ranking by getting through the quarterfinals. I think it all caught up with him in his semifinal match. He was just out of gas. When he starts looking at Uncle Toni and just gets blown out in the first set, you know something is wrong.

Maybe one can say that he would have had the same result in 2008 no matter what he circumstances. However, in 2009 I actually think Rafa did an incredible job to defend his semifinal points from the previous year. He was nowhere near the kind of form he needed to be in to win a slam. He had the abdominal tear, and it clearly severely hampered his ability to serve in his semifinal match with Delpo. Again, one might make the argument that Rafa would still have lost to a Delpo playing some of his best tennis. I still believe it is fair to take into account Rafa's injury at that time. The match certainly would have been more competitive.

This is a different Rafa that is coming into this year's USO. For the first time, we know that he is healthy, the knees are good, he's rested and fresh, the mental toughness, that will to win is stronger than ever. I have said more than once that slams are sometimes won on the intangibles. That is the one great advantage that Rafa has even over the best hardcourt players. Once he sets his mind to something, he will fight to the end to achieve it.

I think you will see that aggressive Rafa that we saw at Wimbledon. He struggled to get through that tournament and, in the first week, I don't many were predicting him to win. If Rafa gets to the second week of a slam, he will always be difficult to stop. I think the changes Rafa has made to his game will pay off on those fast hardcourts at the USO.

So, after this rather long post, my short answer to you is that this year will be different.

Nativenewyorker , 7/29/10 8:55 PM


imjimmy: When you say you dont buy that Rafa was pretty well exhausted when he lost to Murray in the 2008 USO, are you forgetting that Murray was dumped out of the Olympics in R1 singles and R2 doubles and had headed straight back to New York - giving him two whole weeks to prepare for the USO. Whereas Rafa had barely a week to recover from the round-trip to Bejiing.

ed251137 , 7/30/10 12:54 AM


It amazes me that people still think that Rafa 'may never win' any tournament. I've enjoyed him proving all these predictions wrong. Hopefully we'll add USO 2010 to the list of things Rafa should have never won... and did.

Zooni , 7/30/10 8:20 AM


i agree with zooni.....it amazes me as well......"never" is not the suitable word....HE CAN certainly win USO(although it will be very difficult).....he has managed this season a bit better....he is more calm,and not much alien to his knee troubles anymore.....two GS's in the bag....his confidence would be high as well....everything is favourable....he just needs to change his game a little.....serve better.....always try and be the aggressor.....

VAMOS!!

vrael , 7/30/10 9:01 AM


@imjimmy , 7/29/10 8:30 PM
<< I was never really convinced with the "Rafa was tired" arguments at US Open 2008>>

Rafa himself has said that he was tired after Olympics.
Rafa's Interview at Wimbledon, on 26 June 2010:
==Q. How much are you worried about your knee? Is there a risk you should skip the Davis Cup tie after Wimbledon?
RAFAEL NADAL: ...I talked with the captain, I talked with the president of the Federation a few days ago, and I said, Guys, I never arrive to the US Open with my hundred percent of conditions. I had last year broken abdominal, two years ago playing crazy here. After Olympics, I did arrive very TIRED. And I really want to try to go there with my best chances, no, to play, to play my hundred percent.
So I need to do this treatment after here. If I play Davis Cup, I don't have enough time to recover and play tournaments...==

I believe Rafa.

Augustina08 , 7/30/10 9:07 AM


ed251137 and Augustina08: It was an extra three best of five matches for Rafa at the Olympics (compared to Murray for ex). Why should that make such a difference to the fittest player on tour? Of course, I am not denying that overall Rafa played a lot of matches in the season. But the fact is that this comes as a part of being a truly great player and being #1. Didn't Federer do the same thing in 2005-2007 where he hardly lost matches in the whole year.

In my opinion, if you step on the court, you are fit to play. Rafa didn't lose to Murray in UsO 2008 because he was tired. He lost because Murray played better. I'm sure Nadal himself will agree with that.

NativeNewyorker: Good post. I hope you are right. Certainly never say never for someone like Rafa, and he might not ever get such a good opportunity as he has this year. To be sure, Rafa and his team have shown a lot of foresight in making subtle changes to his game. Last time that happened Nadal won three slams in 8 months. He looks on a similar roll right now. Still, I suspect that NYC will be a formidable obstacle to surmount. It's definitely unreasonable to expect Nadal to play as well on Deco Turf as he does on clay and grass (where he is almost unbeatable when at his best).

Overall, looking at Nadal's career - a lot depends on Rafa v. his knees. If he wins that battle, the next 2-3 years could be Federer-like; something to remember for all tennis fans (and even the foes!).

imjimmy , 7/30/10 10:11 AM


By the end of his career,I think nadal wins one USO at most. I seriously cant see him winning there multiple times for a variety of reasons.

tj600 , 7/30/10 10:24 AM


By the end of his career,I think nadal wins one USO at most. I seriously cant see him winning there multiple times for a variety of reasons.
tj600, 7/30/10 10:24 AM


Wishful thinking!!!!

nadline , 7/30/10 12:25 PM


It is logical thinking but one should remember that Nadal has a nasty habbit of proving naysayers wrong!

remi , 7/30/10 12:53 PM


@imjimmy , 7/30/10 10:11 AM
<< I am not denying that overall Rafa played a lot of matches in the season. But the fact is that this comes as a part of being a truly great player and being #1. Didn't Federer do the same thing in 2005-2007 where he hardly lost matches in the whole year.>>

Federer may be tireless at ATP tour, but he has never won Olympics. "Truly great player and #1" Federer lost in 2R of Olympics 2004 to Tomas Berdych and in QF of Olympics 2008 to James Blake. Maybe he did not want to get tired? The courts of both Olympics 2004 & 2008 were made of DecoTurf like the courts of US Open.

<<Rafa didn't lose to Murray in UsO 2008 because he was tired. He lost because Murray played better.>>
Of course, Murray played better. A fresher good player usually does.

P.S. Comparing the amount of matches of 2 men, Rafa played more in the year of his becoming #1:
- Federer became World # 1 in February 2004 and he played 17 ATP Tournaments /80 matches (won 74) that year. Plus Olympics (2 matches).
- Rafa became World #1 on in August 2008 and he played 19 ATP Tournaments /93 matches (won 82) that year. Plus Olympics (6 matches).

Augustina08 , 7/30/10 12:55 PM


Rafa was knackered at the USO 2008, he said himself that he could hardly walk by the time he arrived in NY, he was also injured at the USO2007, Ferrer said as much after he beat him. Anyway, that's all irrelevant, except to dis pel all the 'Rafa can't win on fast hard courts..bla, bla, bla.......Just tell me who has won the USO in the last 7 years apart from Federer and Delpo.

Murray and Djoko have made the finals once each, so are they any better than Rafa on the surface, because he has made the SF TWICE IN A ROW, EVEN WHEN UNFIT, AND TIRED.

nadline , 7/30/10 2:05 PM


"Murray and Djoko have made the finals once each, so are they any better than Rafa on the surface, because he has made the SF TWICE IN A ROW, EVEN WHEN UNFIT, AND TIRED."


You are trying to bit sarcastic but it is the bitter truth ..Till now ..Djokovic is better than rafa on North-Americans h/c surfaces.. h2h of rafa b/w them on this surface speak for itself !!

Yet rafa has time in his carrear so he could make improvement on this bitter nail in his resume :)

mani4Tennis , 7/30/10 7:30 PM


well, rafa had olympics in 2008 and the schedule was ABNORMALLY cramped, plus unliek fed he dominates all the clay season without any rest becoz he wins there all the time. he won toronto too and then olympics too, that was too much...u think nadal was not tired...well see the highlights of his match against murray.take a look at the 2nd last point, and after that point rafa was DOWN ON HIS KNEES panting for breath so heavily! i have NEVER seen rafa in that position , no matter how long a match he plaed in the past...so yes he had exceeded his limits !!

having said that,i would say that these things happen in sports. u cant take credit away from murray just by saying rafa wasnt fresh, it was a combination of both factors , murray was better that day and rafa wasnt right tactically. lets see what happens this year.

vamosrafa , 7/30/10 10:29 PM


Ya..Hoping nadal to get a RIVAL slam at US2010 by beating Federer. Vamos Rafa! Also, I would like him to skip cincinatti this year after winning canada masters...thats a super fast hardcourt, doesn't suit well for Rafa..,

thangs , 7/31/10 12:18 AM


imjimmy: 'It was an extra three best of five matches for Rafa at the Olympics (compared to Murray for ex). Why should that make such a difference to the fittest player on tour?'

You airily dismiss the extra Olympic matches as being neither here nor there as if they were some minor 250 tournament. NB: A minor point but the Olympics are the best of three, not best of five matches.

I wonder, did you watch the Olympics? For a start in August it was stiflingly hot with high humidity. Secondly he played FIVE more singles matches than Murray which added up to a total of 14 extra sets. The SF against Djokovic and the final with Gonzales were both intense 3-set matches. Murray himself admitted his poor performance was because he had failed to prepare properly for Bejiing and had been unable to adapt to the climate change.

So, yes a lot of us understood when a physically and emotionally knackered Rafa was not at his best at the USO that year!!

ed251137 , 7/31/10 1:33 AM


Lots of great points made by you all... with the exception of Rafa not being tired by the time the US Open started, let alone by the semi-final. To add to what was said: there was also the vastly different time zones to deal with: being synchronized to Eastern North America, then a quick switch to Bejing time, and a quick switch back to Eastern North America. Tactically, it is true, for Nadal to stand so drastically behind the baseline as he just in that match against Murray proved to be a bad choice.

I have no idea whether Nadal will win at the US Open, but it certainly seems a good deal more possible this year than any other year so far. And it is a bit surreal to see the poll question on this topic each time I come back to tennistalk these last days, let alone that the votes are more than 50% for Rafa winning. Surreal, even though it is mostly us Rafa fans who are hovering around at the moment...

chlorostoma , 7/31/10 3:59 AM


chlorostoma: you couldn't get a more statistically invalid poll than the TT ones if you tried!!!! I guess the only thing they reflect is how many fans (or anti-fans) of a particular player are visiting the site at a particular moment :-)

ed251137 , 7/31/10 9:04 AM


Everyone doubts Rafa until he proves them wrong. He was never supposed to win ANY h/c or grasscourt GS, remember!!! Now that he has won the AO and Wimby, doubters are just left with the USO, and he will prove them wrong again, one day. I'm not going to say for definite it will be this year, because I don't do predictions, but let's wait and see.

nadline , 7/31/10 8:40 PM


RAFAEL CAN WIN USO WITH HIS PRESENT FORM BUT CAN HE? ONLY ROGER KNOWS IF HE CAN!

newfangkc , 7/31/10 9:24 PM


@nadline ....

i don't know about rest but i never doubt that would he win grass slam or not ..he performed well in wimby from the start of his career ..it was only roger that had the game to stop him to win on grass surface ..!!

But Big question is/was HARDCOURT surface ?? ..isn't it??

i know he has won AO but he has to done consistently well on h/c surfaces to stamp his authority !!

mani4Tennis , 7/31/10 11:47 PM


mani, so you are doubting Rafa......see. He has to win it before you believe in him.

nadline , 8/1/10 5:01 AM


That's pretty normal to mingle around with doubters, once Rafa has proven them wrong again, then they will resort to another issue, it's endless.

In the past, Rafa & Roger has proven them wrong. Having Rafa won most of what have they counted as Roger's win. And where are these people now, they stayed quiet under their burrows and if Tennis Gods allowed Rafa to win USO, we will hear them screaming as they jumped off the bridges lolz lolz lolz.

One thing for sure, Rafa will give his best to win H/C slams as many as he can, if he fails then we all know that he did try it.

Raindrops , 8/1/10 6:43 AM


mani, so you are doubting Rafa......see. He has to win it before you believe in him.
nadline , 8/1/10 5:01 AM


It's not about doubting ...it s a fact ...he has to win h/c surfaces tournament consistently ... he has become contendor best of his era .. so how he would be eligible if he doesn't win consistently on a surface which holds around 50% tennis of whole year !!


I know he could ..Hope he would !!

mani4Tennis , 8/1/10 10:20 AM


Rafa's ratio of h/c wins is beats everyone except Federer and Roddick, so why the doubts. Who has won h/c consistently that could stand in Rafa's way apart from these two people. People have more faith in players who have never even gone past the QTRS. let alone win a h/c title. OK, so Delpo won the USO once - last year, what else has he done on h/c, that was the one and only time he made it to the final, Djoko has made 2 finals and won 1, Murray has made 2 finals and won none, what is so much more in their favour than in Rafa's, who has made 2 SFs, and won 1 GS title, not to talk of his record in the ATP Masters. To people who don't follow tennis, listening to all the negative Rafa talk, would give the impression of him lagging behind everyone on H/C, not ever getting past the 2nd round, and not ever beating anyone of note, which is so wrong. I wish people would look at the stats. before making judgements. A lot of the so called Masters of H/C, have lost 50% of their matches on the surface, Rafa's ratio is 203 wins to 66 losses, no one else beats that except Roddick and Federer. You can't win 203 matches if you are no good on a surface.

Raindrops, once Rafa wins the USO, the doubters will move on to indoor courts, because people just don't want to have faith in Rafa.

nadline , 8/1/10 5:00 PM


nadline: you dont give up easily do you? You're right though, so many comments are made without any basis in fact and without any attempt to check the stats. Even some of the commentators, who should know better, persist in perpetuating the myth about Rafa's lack of success on hardcourts! The problem is that there are none so deaf as those who dont want to hear :-)

ed251137 , 8/1/10 5:41 PM


ed, if people based their opinions on the facts, then I am happy to accept that everyone is entitled to their opinions, but when they conveniently do not want the facts to get in the way of their opinions, then I simply cannot let it go unchallenged.

So many myths are spread around, and as I said, to people who just hear the odd bit of tennis news, these unfounded, baseless opinions affect how a player is perceived, and it is so unfair to talk down a player like Rafa who has worked so hard to achieve so much, and heap praise on those who don't deserve it.

Rafa is the No 1 player in the world, why do people insist on making him look incapable of beating players who are in and out of the top 20 or top 10 all the time, and also players who have achieved a fraction of what he has.

nadline , 8/1/10 7:13 PM


The antipathy towards Rafa in certain quarters has its origins in resentment that this young raw kid with his unorthodox attire and brutal game gatecrashed the party just as Roger, with his elegant and classic game had established his reputation as being virtually unbeatable. i think the majority of the Rafa fan base are realists able to accept his shortcomings (such as they are) whilst revelling in his lion heart and breathtaking tennis when he is in full flight. When, and if ever, Roger relinquishes the idea that he is no longer the rightful holder of the No.1 ranking it will be fascinating to see how long his fans remain loyal - and if not, who they will adopt as their new hero.

ed251137 , 8/1/10 10:02 PM


When, and if ever, Roger relinquishes the idea that he is no longer the rightful holder of the No.1 ranking it will be fascinating to see how long his fans remain loyal - and if not, who they will adopt as their new hero.
ed251137, 8/1/10 10:02 PM


This is already evident with the exodus of Fedfans after he won nothing after OZ, and especially since he went down to No 3. Rafa fans loved him before he became famous, whilst Roger's fans only became fans after he became Great, so there is a big difference there.

nadline , 8/2/10 10:56 AM


nadline and ed,

I accept Fed is not No 1 at the moment , he just need to focus on his game and start playing tactical game and he has good chances of getting back the top spot by next Wimby..

Even if Fed fails to get the No 1 and win more slams , he will always be the legends and his fans will always love him for that.

Don't you guys think he can win few more slams playing tactical tennis instead of playing the way he used to(because at the moment he is missing few shorts from his pocket, so he has good chances to adopt other style).

champ00289 , 8/2/10 1:01 PM


champ00289,

Roger's chances for winning few slams and get back to the top spot is bleak as he is getting old coupled with strong field of good/talented young players that makes the compitition very stiff. He can't survive anymore when playing with quality big hitters because he's been a tad slow due to his aging body.

I booked him as good as quarterfinalist or semifinalist to any event.

Raindrops , 8/2/10 1:43 PM


This is already evident with the exodus of Fedfans after he won nothing after OZ, and especially since he went down to No 3. Rafa fans loved him before he became famous, whilst Roger's fans only became fans after he became Great, so there is a big difference there.
nadline , 8/2/10 10:56 AM

This could be what can you think only .. but i dont think you can impose upon this thought upon all Roger fans atleast for me case is different!!

I'm following him from 2001 ..almost 10 yrs .. though i was only 15 yr. old at that time but still i followed him and he was not so much famous at that time.. !!.. and i also believe that there will be million of fans like me !!

mani4Tennis , 8/2/10 1:59 PM


I started following tennis from late 2003 and from then I loved Fed's game.I had seen him dominating almost every player (except Nadal).He has won GS despite of not being at his best.

Poeple need to wait and see how we comes now..

Almost same things were happening in 2008 when Fed failed to win any big event but he Won US and after sometime regain his no 1 ranking(though age is not at his side this time)..

I wish Fed should practice well and come in good form for US Series and he should get all the big hitters in his half or quarter of the draw and lets see what he do this time..

champ00289 , 8/2/10 2:35 PM


Magazine? readers and ELMUNDO.es visitors have shown their appreciation and respect towards their nation?s most loved ones in this year?s Magazine Summer Poll.
It was no surprise to anyone that Spain?s national athletes topped the ranks, and overtook the royal family, who since 2002 have always had a very special place in the nation?s hearts.
With a staggering 69,9% of votes, Rafa Nadal led the poll as Spain?s most loved person. An incredible recognition that follows 2 Grand Slam crowns, (Roland Garros and Wimbledon) as well as 3 Masters Series titles (Madrid, Rome and Montecarlo).

Iker Casillas (Goalkeeper and Capitan of the 2010 Spanish World Cup Champions team) is in second position, followed by Pau Gasol, who plays for the Los Angeles Lakers and has accumulated 2 NBA rings.

Also in the top-10 are Andrés Iniesta, David Villa and Vicente del Bosque.

vrael , 8/2/10 5:30 PM


Maybe all Indians out here already know this "Somdev has cracked in top 100".

Wishes for him to reach in 75 by End of year..(Difficult but not impossible, just needs to get a good draw at masters and in US and we can see him within 80 or 90 atleast by end of UO.

champ00289 , 8/2/10 5:39 PM


Champ and Mani: I'm sorry my comment sounded like a sweeping generalisation, for which I apologise. We all know there are plenty of genuine tennis fans for whom Roger is their hero. My remark was directed at the fair weather fans and certain people who come on to TT to trash practically all other players - particularly those who have managed to beat Roger. Between them, Roger and Rafa have dominated the game for the past six years - with from time to time serious challenges from Murray and Djokovic - which has provided an exceptionally exciting period for tennis and brought countless hours of pleasure to all of us who follow their fortunes.

ed251137 , 8/2/10 5:43 PM


it was the headline at my local newspaper....."SOMDEV REACHES TOP 100"

VAMOS!!!

vrael , 8/2/10 5:54 PM


champ and mani,

Sorry, I should have said some fans on this forum. Of course not all fans only like Roger for his successes, but it is amazing that most of the diehard fans on TT have disappeared since Feb this year.

nadline , 8/2/10 6:09 PM


Wow! Nearly 70% voting for Rafa as the most popular in Spain.

nadline , 8/2/10 6:14 PM


hardly a surprise nadline...he is spain's most loved son......born once in a century,no??

VAMOS!!!

vrael , 8/2/10 6:17 PM


@nadline & ed ..

its okay .. now i'm eagerily waiting the NA tennis season!!..it has been almost a month to see top level tennis ... wants to see....

how well oger has recovered from his health issues ..is there any add-ins in his game due to his new coach annacone !!

Also how to rafa Knees reacted after his new treatment ..how he plays on US h/c's this season when he looks like most fit in his career for this later part of season !!

How the murray comes-out after the coach issue... how he handles pressure on his most well performed surface !!

would soderling & berdych be really able to troubles rafa ...

IMO this NA tennis season would be one of the most excited in last 4-5 yrs.!!

mani4Tennis , 8/3/10 9:13 AM


mani,

agree with you..

This US series is very interesting and really the one to watch..a lot of questions around almost all players.

1.Fed is he fine and found his game.
2.Nadal fit ? the impact of surgery?
3.Djoker wil he able to hold at No 2 ? He has got his serve back in wimby , will he able to do the same here ?
4.Murray , how will he take it after parting away from his coach ?
5.Rod , will he be able to perform well if Fed/Nadal/Murray/Djoker failed ?

or new guns outplays few big shots..

Just cant wait for the masters..

champ00289 , 8/3/10 10:16 AM


champ-did nadal have surgery?

tj600 , 8/3/10 10:19 AM


@tj600.....i think he meant del potro

vrael , 8/3/10 10:30 AM


@mani4Tennis , 8/3/10 9:13 AM
<<would soderling & berdych be really able to troubles rafa>>

I would like to see whether Baghdatis & Berdych & Gulbis& Soderling trouble Federer again. These players defeted Federer:
- Baghdatis: at Indian Wells Masters (March)
- Berdych: at Miami Masters (March&April) and Wimbledon (June & July)
- Gulbis: at Rome Masters (April )
- Soderling: at FO (May).

Augustina08 , 8/3/10 10:52 AM


talking about somdev he is now 96 but next week he will be again out of top 100 and will be somewhere at 105 to 110 I guess as he failed to qualify for washington DC and last year he reached R16.

champ00289 , 8/3/10 11:13 AM


would soderling & berdych be really able to troubles rafa ...

mani4Tennis, 8/3/10 9:13 AM


mani, my answer to this question is NO, they are not in Rafa's class when he is fully fit - no ifs, no buts.

nadline , 8/3/10 11:20 AM


nadline, what is this popularity thing?? u say rafa won 70% votes in spain? was there a pole conducted in spain among all athletes?? please elaborate.

vamosrafa , 8/3/10 12:42 PM


@vrael , 8/3/10 8:22 AM

I watched Rafa in the video (the link You gave). What a beautiful body !

Augustina08 , 8/3/10 12:44 PM


mani, my answer to this question is NO, they are not in Rafa's class when he is fully fit - no ifs, no buts.
nadline , 8/3/10 11:20 AM


i am also certain of it ..but as it is rafa's less liked and Big hitters's (like berdych/soderling) most liked surface so wants to see the stratergy of rafa against them !!

@Augustina08

yes that will be interesting to see how roger plays with those big-hitters (sod/berdych/gulbis) ... Until last year these big hitters could only dreamed of beating rager in slams but this year all of sudden they are bitting him consistently ...

hope that he must be regropued his thoughts & stratergy in last month!!

alot at stake !!

mani4Tennis , 8/3/10 12:44 PM


oh read Vrael's post, thanks vrael..WOW, 70% of the votes in the entire nation , staggering !! topping all the footballers toom despite the fact that football is the most popular sport in spain. can u give me the link where i can see all the list?

vamosrafa , 8/3/10 12:46 PM


@mani4Tennis , 8/3/10 12:44 PM
<<big hitters...this year all of sudden they are bitting him consistently>>

Not only big hitters are beating him! Federer has not won any tournaments and has not beaten any of Top-10 players during last 6 months.

Augustina08 , 8/3/10 12:58 PM


oh found it myself, its on his website :)

vamosrafa , 8/3/10 1:02 PM


I think you guys dont know last Argentine people selected Delpo over messi as Argentine player of the year..(After Delpo won US Open)

champ00289 , 8/3/10 1:07 PM


champ-very impressive.

tj600 , 8/3/10 1:10 PM


@vamosrafa......i pasted all that from rafa's site only...lol

@Augustina08.....beautiful indeed.

vrael , 8/3/10 1:15 PM


Augustina,

your wait to see Fed beating them will end soon..

champ00289 , 8/3/10 2:22 PM


@Augustina...

downfalls comes in the career of every single player .... i am sure you won't be able to find a Great player's name who had not seen bad phase in his professional life!!

About the defeats in last 6 months for roger except 1 or 2 all were big hitters.. therefore i mentioned for only them.

Top-10 category doesn't matter for any good player ..when he was in form for the duration of almost 4-5 yrs. he beated all of them N no. of times ...lets see if he able show us just glimpse of the player that he was player 1 y. back.

mani4Tennis , 8/3/10 2:37 PM


Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling are Federer's problems.

Augustina08 , 8/5/10 9:04 AM


WORD Augustina haha.

Raindrops , 8/5/10 9:28 AM


@Augustina08

We will get a broad & clear picture about everybody's problem in coming h/c & indoor seasons !!

mani4Tennis , 8/5/10 10:53 AM


Reportedly, Rafa and Nole will team up in doubles at Toronto Masters! I rather wish them to lose in early rounds to save energy for singles.

Augustina08 , 8/5/10 5:38 PM




@augustina, they will be teaming up AT LAST...they have been wanting to team up since a long time. and dont worry abt energy, its okay.

vamosrafa , 8/5/10 5:43 PM


vamosrafa,
thank you for the link re Muster:
That's a bit of real news, isn't it?
I've not heard Rafa before talking about his gameplan being 15 years old.

chlorostoma , 8/5/10 7:30 PM


Loss of energy is not a problem for singles players who play doubles, because the players use the double matches in lieu of their practise time. Playing doubles is also great for them as it hones their net nvolley skills.

Von , 8/6/10 3:13 AM


chlorostoma, that was Muster talking.
Rafa and Nole will be a great thing for the sport of Tennis Doubles, certainly a crowd magnet!
And I agree with Vamosrafa and Von, doubles is not a problem for energy. After over a month of rest, Rafa can use playing doubles to warm up for singles with real competition.

grafight , 8/6/10 3:26 PM


grafight,
you're right! I didn't read the beginning of that paragraph correctly... they were quoting the *former* number one player. (I had wondered about the 15 years... that would have been when Nadal was 9.)

chlorostoma , 8/6/10 5:20 PM


Rafael can win USO or for that any or all tournaments for the next 12 GS even though he is not in the same frame as he had been in SW19 in 2008. Period.

A whole lot of contestants are now trying to do to him what he did to unmount the mountain and the mountain is not going to go away without a fight.

Vamos gyes and gals! See all of of you in 72 hours!

newfangkc , 8/6/10 7:45 PM


Sure Nadal can win the USO. He now knows that he is rusty, very rusty, and he will work very hard this week to iron things out and arrive in NY fit for the task.


VAMOS!

nadline , 8/21/10 12:23 PM



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