2010-03-31 16:42:59
…would smell as sweet. “What is a cupcake draw”, you ask “and where can I buy one”. A cupcake draw, otherwise known as “favorable” is one in which you, as a player, draw clay court specialists when you’re on hard courts, hard court specialists when you’re on clay – and Nikolay Davyenko on grass. It can also mean that you were slated to play Federer in the round of 16, but he lost in the third round so you get to play Mardy Fish instead. MMM…Cupcakes……. Oh. And you can’t buy one. It must be bestowed upon you by the tennis gods.
I was thinking about this when American commentator Justin Gimelstob referred to Andy Roddick’s draw in Miami as “extremely favorable”. Now, let’s be real here. Roddick has played Igor Andreev, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Benjamin Becker en route to the quarterfinals. Highest ranked of the lot? Becker at 39. And he gets Nicolas Almagro in the quarters, who is No. 38. Calling that draw favorable is like calling a typhoon a “spot of rain”.
Historically, there have been cupcake draws, and Cupcake Draws….and every once in a great while, you’ll look at a draw and wonder half-seriously who got paid off. Case in point – Agassi’s now-famous 1999 Roland Garros run to the title. Want to know how many players he faced in the top 25 for the tournament? ONE. Moya (4) in the round of 16. Three of his opponents were ranked outside the top 100 – including the man he faced in the final (Andrei Medvedev).
Compare that to Juan Martin Del Potro’s US Open victory last September. The lowest ranked player he faced in the entire tournament was No. 62 in the world Daniel Koellerer. From the round of 16 on, he had to beat Juan Carlos Ferrero (25), Marin Cilic (17), Rafael Nadal (3) and Roger Federer (1).
Now, there are folks in the tennis community who work themselves into a lather over this issue. “It’s an OUTRAGE” they claim. And according to the various fanbases, the “favorable” draws ALWAYS benefit either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal or Andy Roddick or Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic, depending on the player that fanbase hates most at the moment. And their favorite player NEVER gets a good draw.
So what’s the answer? Shall we dispense with the “tournament” style brackets? We could adopt the system they use in figure skating, wherein a competitor’s score is determined by a panel of independent judges using a complex elements matrix (including appearance – which would, of course, knock Rafael Nadal and his checked shorts completely out of the running). Sounds great, doesn't it?
The point is that YES there are cupcake draws sometimes. And no, it doesn’t seem fair that in order for Rafael Nadal to make the finals this week he’ll have had to beat David Nalbandian, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and likely Andy Roddick. But thems the breaks. And at the end of the day, nobody really remembers (until I remind them) what Agassi's French Open draw looked like. Does it help to be a little bit lucky? Sure it does. Does complaining about it make any difference at all? Not in the slightest.
Tell a friend »
Vamosrafa - yes, I understand. Safin's (for example) AO title is more...impressive than ToJo's to be sure. But for all intents and purposes, a grand slam title is a grand slam title and they are equivalent in all measurable ways.
Cheers. :)
cherylmurray , 3/31/10 5:27 PM
yes a bit sad but true :). and cheryl, ai m waiting for the expert picks for miami !! qtr finals are here and are you guys gona put those picks this time too?? i love that thing :)
vamosrafa , 3/31/10 5:36 PM
?What is a cupcake draw?, you ask ?and where can I buy one?.
that made me giggle :D. love your blogs cheryl
Sib69 , 3/31/10 6:23 PM
cheryl, great article. This has occured to me many times. How do they manage to do draws that are so out of kilter, that qualifiers play each other in the first round, and a top 4 player plays a former top 10 player, whose ranking is low purely because they haven't palyed many matches. Roddick in Miami being lower ranked than Federer Djoko or Nadal had a cup-cake draw, and hasn't really played anyone who could remotely challenge him.
I disagree with you though, that they should adopt the points system, because there will only be one winner every time, as evidenced by the polls on this site.
nadline is carrie by the way.
nadline , 3/31/10 6:38 PM
Two thoughts:
1.) The cupcakes all even out at the end of the day ...
2.) A semantics point: It's not really the "draw" that Roddick or Agassi had that was the cupcake; it's how it played out -- the path, if you will. Otherwise, we're in agreeance here.
SenorPlaid , 3/31/10 7:37 PM
Pete Sampras' 2000 Wimbledon run was also imo a cupcake draw :)
R128 Jiri Vanek (CZE) 80 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
R64 Karol Kucera (SVK) 44 W 7-6(9), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
R32 Justin Gimelstob (USA) 99 W 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
R16 Jonas Bjorkman (SWE) 78 W 6-3, 6-2, 7-5
Q Jan-Michael Gambill (USA) 56 W 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4
S Vladimir Voltchkov (BLR) 237 W 7-6(4), 6-2, 6-4
W Patrick Rafter (AUS) 21 W 6-7(10), 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-2
Not even one player in the top 20 at the time
SGHIceman , 3/31/10 7:42 PM
yep good one SGHIceman, but he had rafter in the final who was sooo lethal on grass (even tho not ranked so high at that time)
vamosrafa , 3/31/10 7:46 PM
Ah, SP how astute of you. However, the draw INCLUDES the path. haven't you ever heard anyone say "the draw has opened up"?
:D
cherylmurray , 3/31/10 7:55 PM
Yeah I know, not taking a shot at Rafter, just rankingswise a pretty easy draw ^^
SGHIceman , 3/31/10 8:12 PM
Rafter was indeed a factor on grass. Still the point stands that his draw is one of those head-scratchers.
Nice new name, Carrie. :D
cherylmurray , 4/1/10 5:15 AM
roddick has had some easy draws at iw and miami. but he deserves it. in the past, he ran into federer countless times and got smoked. hope he wins the title now :)
tj600 , 4/1/10 10:30 AM
dont say that tj ! lol...if he is to win the title he needs to brush aside rafa from his way and i cannot afford that ! it wud be a big disappointment if rafa is unable to win keybiscayne given the level he is showing
vamosrafa , 4/1/10 4:11 PM
Cheryl, nice insight. That is why the value of the grand slams is much more for the likes of Rafa, Djoker, Del Pot, Safin coz they have earned it by beating the best player. They did not benefit from Federer's early exit. Guess Federer's RG triumph ranks pretty close to Agassi's campaign in 99.
vmk1 , 4/1/10 6:55 PM
federer won Rg when rafa and nole were ousted early on. but his gritty fights and comebacks against haas and delpotro were highly impressive. looked down and out against haas but sumhow put together a miraculous comeback and delp was on fire so fedning him off was also impressive. nadal exited early, not roger's fault but still many say that it was rafa's exit that highly facilitated his path to that elusive title... but thats tennis nd it happens
vamosrafa , 4/1/10 7:52 PM
and this is the reason i always putrafa in a higher stature than the likes of wilander(7 slams) becker (6) and edberg.... nadal beat ROGER FEDERER IN EACH OF HIS SLAM WIN so it is a feat to be remembered forever ! beating the most successful player in slam history each time en route to slam wins....
vamosrafa , 4/1/10 7:55 PM
And on surfaces of all kinds!!To be the man you ve got to beat the man.
vmk1 , 4/1/10 9:59 PM
Cheryl, they could adopt a system where the players have a separate points system for each surface so for aus open and US open the players are seeded according the points accumulated on hard courts. And for FO according to the points accumulated on clay ccourts. This would help in manner that players who are good on a particular surface do not meet until the finals. For instance the Nadal Djokovic match at Madrid was more final material last year than the actual final. If this points system was adopted probably NAdal Djoker would have met in the final.
vmk1 , 4/2/10 3:34 PM
This could very well be 'tkip's last com for the next few months to give the others a go. Thanks, for the blogs peoples, I know it must be difficult with everything else occuring around this planet!
Nevertheless, I do reckon Roger can now afford to really see things in perspective making sure it benefits everyone as also his family. The countenance he endured and showed during his years as a tennis player has been magn - with everybody.
Now that I'm sure things are clearing around us, (giggle), whoever receives the chance to participate, could immensely enjoy the benefits and counterfeits alike. All up, to be certain they are happy with whatever results,. With best wishes, and take care.
tkip4n01zmun , 4/3/10 2:14 AM
"To be the man you ve got to beat the man."
vmk1
And as I've pointed out before, since the 2004 French, EVERY Slam winner has either been The Man (Federer 15 times) of the Man Who Beat the Man (Nadal 6 times; Djokovic, DelPo and Safin once each). It's an amazing run.
SenorPlaid , 4/3/10 3:56 AM
I am thinking of the US open.Who will win may depend a lot on the 'luck' of the draw. Who will get the cupcake?I wonder whether these draws are really as random as they are made out to be?I have noticed that Federer generally gets relatively easier draws.He is easily the most marketable guy and his matches are the most watched.So the broadcasters,sponsors,organizers all have an interest in smoothening his path. Andy Murray who is not particularly favored by dame luck at AO,FO or US open ,got cupcake draws at Wimbledon in 2009 and 2010.Is he marketable?Very ,at Wimbledon.Apparently ,Sharapova ,in her heyday,also got cupcake draws.These may just be coincidences.I know there are some restrictions like seeds 1 and 2 have to be in different halves,3 and 4 in different halves etc but do the organizers have leeway otherwise in determining who goes into whose Quarter?To silence suspicion, why can't they permanently fix the slots for the top 104 ranks?
Any light you can throw on this?
vij , 8/16/10 5:22 AM
@ SENORPLAID
berdych and soderling never won a GS....nadal beat the man who beat ur MAN.
vrael , 8/16/10 3:11 PM
Yes you are right vrael. With Sod and Berdych beating Fed in the QFs, I think that streak of Fed's had stopped. Who knows, from now on it may be whoever wants to win a slam has to get past Rafa first!!:-)) Rafa may be starting a new streak of his own!
luckystar , 8/16/10 3:27 PM
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Tue 17/01 02:06
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NICEEE , well written cheryl...i never knew agassi had such a convenient path, for me ateast it does matter HOW u win a slam. THomas johansson's OZ open title in comparison to nadal's or djokovic's is not comparable becoz both rafa-nole beat federer (the best in slam hisrory) ..plus rafa had that memorabel 5 set epic win over nando too...
vamosrafa , 3/31/10 5:16 PM