Cheryl Murray

• Roger Federer's Clay Season Prospects

  2008-04-10 14:04:00
  

  The clay season is upon us; mostly this means that we're going to be seeing an awful lot of Rafael Nadal. Suggestions that perhaps Nadal is going to falter on the dirt this year are inevitable. "He can't keep winning forever", goes the refrain. And while this is true, I'm not sure the statement can be made with any certainty – particularly until we see what his clay court form is going to look like in Monte-Carlo. It's been so long since we've seen the Clay Beast in action, that I think people forget how very good he is on that surface.
  
  I remember watching him play his first match in Monte-Carlo last year and being struck with the transformation to his game. It was like a fish being placed in water after flopping around on the dry ground of hard courts. Gone was the struggling, and in it's place a beautiful, fluid game emerged. And I was reminded of precisely why this man had a 81 match winning streak on the surface.
  
  I realize that this article is supposed to be about Roger Federer's clay season...and I'm getting there, I promise. It's just hard to talk about clay and NOT mention Nadal. So, I'm going to go out on a limb (a dangerous, fragile one) and say that I doubt if Federer and Nadal's games are going to be as inextricably tied together as they have been in the past. They are not Darth Vader and Luke Skywalker any longer (I'll let you decide which one is Vader). The reason is that I don't think Federer is going to get far enough to meet Nadal in finals. There. I said it.
  
  I've been thinking this for some time now – before Federer lost in Australia, before he lost in Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami. The idea first entered my head during Wimbledon. Because I saw something that I never EVER thought I would witness – Federer was winning matches on the strength of his serve – sometimes solely on his serve. And it occurred to me that this tactic does NOT work on clay. Just ask Roddick. If memory serves, the American didn't even bother to enter the Masters-Series events on clay last year. My point is this – with Federer's serve neutralized to some extent, he will need to rely on his movement to win him matches. Has anyone seen Federer's movement since his bout with mono? I think he's in trouble.
  
  If for no other reason than nostalgia, I hope I'm wrong. I apologize to all of the Andy Roddick fans out there, but I was disappointed when Federer lost to Roddick last week. You could always count on some certainties in tennis. Nadal winning on clay, Safin tossing his racket – and Federer beating Roddick. It's like...the natural order of things has been disturbed. I don't mean to say that Roddick didn't earn that win, because he did and I was happy for him that he finally did it, but yes – I was disappointed. As it stands right now, not having seen Federer's clay court form, I would not be surprised if he lost at some point before the finals of the French. Sigh. 

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