"I would not be surprised if he lost at some point before the finals of the French."

Meaning you would not be surprised if he did not make it to the final of the French? Or are you talking about at ANY point between now and the French final?????

even though a good article,it contains a wrong fact in it: rafa had an 81 match winning streak on clay,not 61.

sister, I think cheryl is talking about Nadal's winning streak on clay at the time of his rd1 monte carlo match which was 61.....he won that tourney, rome, (and barcelona ?) and made the final of Hamburg before it ended

Even though Nadal has been the nemisis, Federer's results on clay the past few years have still be quite outstanding - final of Monte Carlo and RG and a title in Hamburg is pretty good by anyone's standards. However, the last few years everyone apart from Nadal seems to have had some kind of mental block against Federer on clay, he's rarely played well (the rome 06 final is the only time Ive seen him anywhere near his best on the dirt) but he's somehow kept grinding through matches. As cheryl says I don't think that will be the case this year, he's looked vulnerable on hard courts never mind clay. Maybe 1 masters series final but I don't expect the Swiss to achieve much else until the grass

who do we reckon will be Nadal's main challenger ? I know its the obvious choice but I think it'll be Djokovic, he looked increasingly impressive on the surface last year and played some special tennis at times in the RG semis v Nadal....v unlucky not to get a set

I'm hoping Nalbandian will finally step up to the plate and achieve big on the dirt this year...he's made at least 2 RG semis, high time he took that one step further. Been v disappointing so far in 2008 so lets hope he gets it together

Ricky - I am absolutely postive that Federer will lose between now and the French Open.. WHat I meant is that I think he's going to lose AT THE FRENCH before he reaches the final. I personally think The Federer is going to lose in the quarters or earlier in Paris. His serve will not save him there.

David - I don't know about Djokovic on clay. He managed to make the semis in Paris last year, but I wasn't particularly impressed with his overall form on clay. I know he's impressive on hardcourts (Miami notwithstanding). I'd like to see what he looks like in the Masters events leading up to Roland Garros. Nalbandian MIGHT be a rival, but he's so inconsistent, he might not make it far enough in the draw to get to Nadal. In all honesty, if I were going to pick I'd say that Nalbandian is the greater threat to Nadal. That backhand of Nalby's is a total Nadal-killer. Like I said, though - David would have to progress enough to even get the chance to play Rafa, and that is never a given.

sister - you're right, of course. For some reason, I always think 61 because that's the number people talked about LAST year at this time (as David suggested). 81 is where it ended in Hamburg (which he should have never played). Thanks for pointing out the error. :)

roger federer may be proving down to most but only few knows the ability of a man to come out of such punk,federer's last match showed he a glimps of brillance though he lost it but inspite of that showed a signs to coming back to some sort of form.with clay season ahead and all about rafa to see,here is a man who still to prove himself there waiting.

when did you become such a Federer apologist, cheryl?

Oh, I have always been...shall we say fascinated with Roger Federer. I am actually not a particular fan of his (should I admit that in public?), but he interests me on a variety of levels. It's just so strange to have him losing all over the place. Plus, as I said, I'm a nostalgic person and tennis has been the Federer/Nadal show for a long time. This is a major shift in the tennis world, and I think it's just...well....interesting.

I think Roger may give us a surprise on the clay this season. The losses will give him more thinking and make him clear-hearted...

banli,i agree with you.i think roger can be more and more ambitious to do well after such a poor start.some even argue that his relatively poor results on hard courts are due to his intense concentration on the french open,which may be true.yet,to be able to play well on clay,federer should be 100% fit,healthy and move effectively.whether he is like this right now or not,we will see starting from estoril.

roger is weaker than ever... he is so afraid of not being no.1 any more... he has joker behind him... i didn't say rafa because of this:

points to defend on clay:
1) federer - 1625
2) nadal - 2350
3) djokovic - 775

to my mind, novak is so close to becoming at least no.2 ranked player in the world...
so this is my answer: djokovic is nadal's toughest challendge on clay this year... i think that, after wimbledone ther will be a new duel - nadal vs. djokovic for no.1 spot!!!

good luck Joker!

Cheryl - I think it's a 100 percent certainty that Roger loses at some point between now and the French Open final. I mean he would have to win Estoril, Rome, Monte-Carlo, AND Hamburg, AND make it to the FO final for that to happen!!!! That would be one of the biggest miracles in the history of the sport!!!

As for him losing at the French Open before the final, at this point I also would not be surprised. My thinking now is if he runs into any of the top clay-courters, it would be an even money match. A lot could change based on the three AMS clay-court tournaments though.

Unrelated (somewhat) - I think it's time we get the forum going with all this good banter going on!!!

Ricky - I agree. I think Federer could very well lose to the first quality clay courter he meets. Almagro, Monaco (if that ankle has healed) could very well take it to him right now. We'll know alot by how he looks today. Not that I think Rochus is actually going to beat him, but he DOES know how to play Federer. It should give us a good indication of how Fed's movement on clay is.

Tennis has produced a lot of surprises in the first quarter of the season. Tsonga, Davydenco, djokovic, the 15 year old harrison, and the no.1 and no.2 not winning a title. So, let's expect some extraordinary results this calendar year. A NEW name to emerge, perhaps!